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Model Output Discussion 13/11/13 >

chionomaniac

By chionomaniac
in Forecast Model Discussion

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cooling climate Aficionado

cooling climate

Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire
Posted

Was not expecting the ECM 12z t120 chart to look that different to the other

two models but between t96 and t120 it has pushed all the energy over

Hudsons bay east to the GIN area leaving it wide open for heights to build in

its place. This could now be a stonking run.

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Barry12 Seasoned

Barry12

Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
Posted (edited)

Comparison vs the ECM, GFS and UKMO at T120

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

ECM is certainly looking different to the other two.

Edited by Barry95
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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted

We've got a great cross polar flow on the ECM at 120

 

post-7073-0-06397600-1384712835_thumb.gi

 

We should see heights building towards Greenland if the PV Lobe over Svalbard moves out of the way

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Snowy L Maestro

Snowy L

Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
Posted

Was not expecting the ECM 12z t120 chart to look that different to the other

two models but between t96 and t120 it has pushed all the energy over

Hudsons bay east to the GIN area leaving it wide open for heights to build in

its place. This could now be a stonking run.

 

Indeed, finally we have a model that appears to be in sync with the stratospheric ones.

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted (edited)

t144 sees the high still over us

 

Posted Image

 

Coldest 850's stay north over Iceland

 

Posted Image

 

Lets see what t168 brings with the high building over southern Greenland

Edited by Summer Sun
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Snowy L Maestro

Snowy L

Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
Posted (edited)

We've got a great cross polar flow on the ECM at 120

 

Posted ImageECH1-120.gif

 

We should see heights building towards Greenland if the PV Lobe over Svalbard moves out of the way

 

That's the thing I don't think it will sink, it will just move over towards Northern Russia. I think we will end up with a set up similar to last January with a weak high between Greenland and Scandi. PV just isn't quite in the right place to set up a Greenland High. I'm just happy we're finally starting to see two distinct PV lobes, I'm shocked it's taking the models so long to get to this, with GFS still way out.

Edited by Snowy L
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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
Posted (edited)

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013111712/ECH1-144.GIF?17-0

 

Critically ECM sending the atlantic low under the high building heights north..

 

LOOK AT THE SPLIT FLOW - always a tell tale sign- teleconnects with the pacific ridge-

 

UKMO wasnt sure but transitioned to the ECM at 12z

 

GFS.- Possibly another fail coming up.

Edited by Steve Murr
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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted (edited)

Comparison vs the ECM, GFS and UKMO at T120

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

ECM is certainly looking different to the other two.

I would say the GFS is the odd one out here! Low exiting the USA is much more south than the ECM and UKMO compared to the GFS. As a result more heights are pushed towards Greenland.

 

EDIT: At 144hrs the much more southerly tracking low is moving heights towards Greenland.

Posted Image

Edited by Panayiotis
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ukpaul Aficionado

ukpaul

Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
Posted

 

Coldest 850's stay north over Iceland

 

 

 

'Stay' as in heading south at a fair pace.

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Snowy L Maestro

Snowy L

Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
Posted

Shortwave could actually help us if it manages to move east and link up with the Scandi Low

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The Northern Ramper Accomplished

The Northern Ramper

Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
Posted

Comparison vs the ECM, GFS and UKMO at T120

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

ECM is certainly looking different to the other two.

For me the ECM is looking to push the energy under the block towards Southern Europe, pushing the High north towards Scandinavia and delivering us an Easterly.
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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted (edited)

HAHAHA! Let the games begin! Next couple of days we need to see consistency between the ECM and UKMO for this to become more than potential!

Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Panayiotis
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Barry12 Seasoned

Barry12

Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
Posted

'Stay' as in heading south at a fair pace.

 

The coldest uppers are always north of Iceland, it's much further north than the UK Posted Image

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Snowy L Maestro

Snowy L

Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
Posted

 

Need that azores high to back off a bit though, it's preventing a complete undercut.

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted (edited)

t168 sees the high extending down from Greenland

 

Posted Image

 

Becoming colder again in the north

 

Posted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
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Boro Snow Seasoned

Boro Snow

Posted
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Storms, Snow Thunder, Supercells, all weather extremes
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level
Posted

Are but gav at 168 the colder uppers begin to move south with -8 clipping the northumbrian coast

 

Posted Image

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The Northern Ramper Accomplished

The Northern Ramper

Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
Posted

For me the ECM is looking to push the energy under the block towards Southern Europe, pushing the High north towards Scandinavia and delivering us an Easterly.

Happily I called it wrong.
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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

NICE!!!!

 

Posted Image

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The Northern Ramper Accomplished

The Northern Ramper

Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
Posted

Need that azores high to back off a bit though, it's preventing a complete undercut.

i don't see how anything other than an undercut can occur from that chart.
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cooling climate Aficionado

cooling climate

Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire
Posted

Are we starting to see some consistency in the ECM output although the t96-120

time frame looks a bit suspect to me. T192 onwards should be very good I would

have thought with the extended output showing a cold east northeasterly type

flow especially over England and Wales I think.

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted (edited)

t192 see's the high staying put

 

Posted Image

 

Becoming colder -8 uppers down to humberside

 

Posted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
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