Model Output Discussion 13/11/13 >

[cold snap]

The ecm 240 is a cracker all be it in deep fi

I'm a little disappointed infact at 168 ,we were looking down the line at a screaming east north easterly ,but it didn't really move on .

Think that run can be describe as potentially very good

[Snowy L]

Steve Murr to have a snowfest on that ECMWF FI, but for many away from Kent just looks cold and dry

 

Northern Hemisphere pattern is the encouraging part, no point talking about specifics 200 hours away.

[johnholmes]

I wonder why on the model thread there seems to be an obsession with fantasy island times? The models have and are still not totally sure of what happens in 48-72 hours. Yet almost every post shows what different models in the T+200 time frame are showing. Look back at your posts and the models 24 hours, 48 or 72 hours and see what was posted then. The synoptic models will often struggle with the major upper pattern let alone the emphasis on here with surface features. Forecasting and model work starts with attempting to get the upper level as near correct as possible, ONLY then  can one begin, with or without model help, predict what may happen 24 hours ahead let alone 200 hours ahead.

I know many find it fun to watch each frame of each model run in the winter half of the year but how many times does it change? Yesterday the Met O markedly changed their Fax chart for Wednesday and got knocked for it, today it looks as if even that change was not enough looking at the latest Fax charts issued through today for the same day. (By the way the T+84 hour chart is issued at times other than the evening, the latest one is timed this morning). That is how much minor upper air changes can affect the surface weather.

Anyway sorry for the sermon, I'll do my own thing and wait for the latest NOAA for my idea of how the upper air may look in 240 hours.

Edited November 17, 2013 by johnholmes

[SMU]

Steve Murr to have a snowfest on that ECMWF FI, but for many away from Kent just looks cold and dry

maybe at day 10- however day 11 & 12 think this...

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2010/archivesnh-2010-11-25-0-0.png

 

S

 

 

John- we are trying to pick the bones out of the models-  also the prospects of mild returning or cold staying-

 

I would say 120 is the breakpoint tonight EXC the GFS

S

Edited November 17, 2013 by Steve Murr

[PolarWarsaw]

My only concern is that we are back to 'BOOM' from the ECM at t168 onwards again....precisely where we were last last Wednesday/Thursday for what will now be his weeks 'cold snap'. I can't help but feel that we may again be lead up the same path, with everything noticeably good or 'boom worthy' at 10 days+, I hope I'm wrong though as tonight's ECM is a very good run for those that appreciate cold, frosty and predominantly dry.

 

Snow fans....hmmm.

[Mucka]

My worry too, didn't we just have this situation for the coming week, only for the high to be corrected from the Iceland region to being close to the UK. I think our sanity will be well and truly tested this week 

 

Yup quite similar and wasn't GFS the model that wanted a flatter pattern? 

I jest, I jest 

Good call Steve M on the BOM over the ECM last night and expecting a more amplified pattern. Let's hope it sticks with it an d develops it and MetO and GFS come on board.

[cold snap]

maybe at day 10- however day 11 & 12 think this...http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2010/archivesnh-2010-11-25-0-0.pngS

Stop it steve lol,naughty one that one Steve Thanks again for your brilliant posts ,I just feel a little deflated after that runStill got to get that high titled more favorably ,took ECM a age there ,we don't want be waiting till spring for this .

[stratty]

I wonder why on the model thread there seems to be an obsession with fantasy island times? The models have and are still not totally sure of what happens in 48-72 hours. Yet almost every post shows what different models in the T+200 time frame are showing. Look back at your posts and the models 24 hours, 48 or 72 hours and see what was posted then. The synoptic models will often struggle with the major upper pattern let alone the emphasis on here with surface features. Forecasting and model work starts with attempting to get the upper level as near correct as possible, ONLY then  can one begin, with or without model help, predict what may happen 24 hours ahead let alone 200 hours ahead.

I know many find it fun to watch each frame of each model run in the winter half of the year but how many times does it change? Yesterday the Met O markedly changed their Fax chart for Wednesday and got knocked for it, today it looks as if even that change was not enough looking at the latest Fax charts issued through today for the same day. (By the way the T+84 hour chart is issued at times other than the evening, the latest one is timed this morning). That is how much minor upper air changes can affect the surface weather.

Anyway sorry for the sermon, I'll do my own thing and wait for the latest NOAA for my idea of how the upper air may look in 240 hours.

 

...a little hypocritical Johnyboy?

[radiohead]

My only concern is that we are back to 'BOOM' from the ECM at t168 onwards again....precisely where we were last last Wednesday/Thursday for what will now be his weeks 'cold snap'. I can't help but feel that we may again be lead up the same path, with everything noticeably good or 'boom worthy' at 10 days+, I hope I'm wrong though as tonight's ECM is a very good run for those that appreciate cold, frosty and predominantly dry.

 

Snow fans....hmmm.

 

There are significant differences on the ECM compared to the GFS as early as T96 which set up what happens later in the run, so it's not like something happening deep in FI which suddenly triggers a "good" run. A proper showdown in the morning with the 0Z runs.

[Snowy L]

My only concern is that we are back to 'BOOM' from the ECM at t168 onwards again....precisely where we were last last Wednesday/Thursday for what will now be his weeks 'cold snap'. I can't help but feel that we may again be lead up the same path, with everything noticeably good or 'boom worthy' at 10 days+, I hope I'm wrong though as tonight's ECM is a very good run for those that appreciate cold, frosty and predominantly dry.

 

Snow fans....hmmm.

 

The signs were there for this weeks cold spell, the stratospheric charts showed low pressure into Europe and a ridge getting as far as Iceland but not penetrating into the polart vortex, which inevitably leads to mid-lattitude blocking rather than high-latitude blocking. This time the vortex is splitting with each lobe moving away from the North Pole. This should enable Northern blocking for a time

 

Edit: Example of this:

 

Edited November 17, 2013 by Snowy L

[swfc]

Wow its only mid november and im suffering model fatigue ! Anyway for the time being ecm ups the antee and keeps thinks a bit more amplified ete.As John said so much change in the short term that anything beyond 3-4 days is up for change so best just observe and wait.I myself am or have been guilty of jumping the gun on individual runs but its easily done in the winter months.Plus i have to take what excitement i can in life

Edited November 17, 2013 by swfc

[The Northern Ramper]

I wonder why on the model thread there seems to be an obsession with fantasy island times? The models have and are still not totally sure of what happens in 48-72 hours. Yet almost every post shows what different models in the T+200 time frame are showing. Look back at your posts and the models 24 hours, 48 or 72 hours and see what was posted then. The synoptic models will often struggle with the major upper pattern let alone the emphasis on here with surface features. Forecasting and model work starts with attempting to get the upper level as near correct as possible, ONLY then  can one begin, with or without model help, predict what may happen 24 hours ahead let alone 200 hours ahead.I know many find it fun to watch each frame of each model run in the winter half of the year but how many times does it change? Yesterday the Met O markedly changed their Fax chart for Wednesday and got knocked for it, today it looks as if even that change was not enough looking at the latest Fax charts issued through today for the same day. (By the way the T+84 hour chart is issued at times other than the evening, the latest one is timed this morning). That is how much minor upper air changes can affect the surface weather.Anyway sorry for the sermon, I'll do my own thing and wait for the latest NOAA for my idea of how the upper air may look in 240 hours.

This is model discussion John and people are posting about what is shown, nobody is putting their mortgage on 240 charts.

[MPG]

t144 sees the high still over us

 

 

Coldest 850's stay north over Iceland

 

 

Lets see what t168 brings with the high building over southern Greenland

Gavin, it amazes me how you fail to see any cold potential in the charts you post. Or you just love HP over the UK so much that's all you see!

[radiohead]

Should be interesting to see where the operational run fits in with the ENS later.

[The PIT]

Wise words from John H and something to bare in mind before thinking T240 is nailed on. It seems some fall but not all into this trap season in season out depending what their interest are.

[Summer Sun]

Another run from ECM shows things becoming more settled from the end of the week and eventually becoming quite cold with frosts and freezing fog potentially becoming a hazard, later on we could see some wintry weather in the SE

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Yup quite similar and wasn't GFS the model that wanted a flatter pattern? 

I jest, I jest 

Good call Steve M on the BOM over the ECM last night and expecting a more amplified pattern. Let's hope it sticks with it an d develops it and MetO and GFS come on board.

Haha, on a plus note this is all good practise for the world cup next year 

Hope the ECM is onto something here

[Cloud 10]

A very decent match between the ECM 00z day 10 ensemble mean and the ECM 12z operational

run for the same time regarding height anomalies.

 

00z ens..  12z op...

 

 

Tomorrow's strat charts should be interesting viewing again. 

[Catacol]

I think as has been alluded to wrt the Strat, the impact of the cooling will be felt with the PV strengthening. Only low heights in Southern Europe can then save us from conventional zonality.

 

Ian - you do set yourself up to be shot down... or do you smile as you post this sort of thing?

 

To clarify on the strat reference - yes: the temperature remains below average - here is the 30hPa plot which shows temps a good bit below average

 

 

 

but we have wave 2 activity on the rise as seen here at 240

 

 

 

and the result of this (and I think also the persistent assault brought about by HP over the aleutians) is a forecast partial split in the vortex at 240

 

 

 

 

So in this context the temperature of the stratosphere is relevant.... but far from the whole story. Now - it might be that the vortex does not remain disrupted for long due to the below average temps, but to say that low heights to the south will be the only way we are saved from zonal dross is a gross oversimplification.

[CongletonHeat]

Gavin, it amazes me how you fail to see any cold potential in the charts you post. Or you just love HP over the UK so much that's all you see!

And other posters only post about the cold potential in every chart yet we don't see you questioning them.

[Mair Snaw]

Yup quite similar and wasn't GFS the model that wanted a flatter pattern? 

I jest, I jest 

Good call Steve M on the BOM over the ECM last night and expecting a more amplified pattern. Let's hope it sticks with it an d develops it and MetO and GFS come on board.

Mucka didnt we have this time and again last winter with the ECM going out on its own only for the GFS to be dragged back toward the ECM everytime and the UKMO always somewhere inbetween....unless its a zonal train the GFS is clueless and seems to just keep drifting around until it wakes up and smells the EMC coffee..

[Catacol]

and I'll add to my previous post - and I guess this would classify as a ramp - that if the vortex elongates as forecast then it supports SM's post of cold air dropping down over us from the N/NE while pressure rises to the NW. This is the 2010 scenario.

 

Surely we cant see something like that happening again?!

[Mucka]

Bigsnow: "Mucka didnt we have this time and again last winter with the ECM going out on its own only for the GFS to be dragged back toward the ECM everytime and the UKMO always somewhere inbetween....unless its a zonal train the GFS is clueless and seems to just keep drifting around until it wakes up and smells the EMC coffee.."

 

It was just a playful tease and reminder that the ECM is not always right but would I take it over GFS? Yup.

 

I hope Steve M is fully vindicated over the next few days but whether he is  or not it was still a good call to say ECM would be much more amplified than yesterdays run.

 

I will stay on the fence for now because we still ahven't seen a strong signal for anything other than mid lat blocking although worth baring mind that can produce deep cold if it sets up in the right place and orientates itself in our favour.

Edited November 17, 2013 by Mucka

[Snowy L]

JMA knows what's going down

 

[radiohead]

I haven't had time to check, is there anything similar to the 12Z ECM in the 12Z GEFS suite?