Model Output Discussion 13/11/13 >

[Snowyowl9]

Well, if people didn't base their expectations on the most outlandishly extreme model-runs, all this disappointment wouldn't occur? 

[That ECM]

Just to add something to Steve M's post regarding the UKMO. Whilst this model only goes out to public view upto 144hrs and in house 168hrs so it doesn't have the chance to pick up something new post that time for us to see. So it might not be a future trend setter or indicate a pattern change but certainly its like the deciding judge in the court of Appeal! If your dealing with European blocking patterns, such as Scandi highs its a no go without this model on board, it's harpooned many an easterly in my time by resolutely refusing to budge. The UKMO upto T72hrs and you can already see a difference with its transport of lower heights over Greenland compared to the GFS just run the 60 to 72hrs on both and see how the GFS takes this east and the UKMO ne. We can see how this initial change magnifies further at 96 and 120hrs.

That's a good point. I think people should look at the PV at T 96 and T 120 on both GFS and UKMO. The differences up there have an impact on the high near us.

[Ian Brown]

GFS being consistent.

 

 

 

 

Yes a very similar picture to it's earlier runs today showing mid-latitude HP out to day 10.

[MPG]

Not far off the 06z so far pressure slowly rising by Friday inline with the thoughts of the met office quietening things down though remaining chilly

 

Thanks for posting charts like this, you keep showing no mild no zonal and pretty interesting synoptics relating to possible cold out comes.

Edited November 17, 2013 by MPG

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Hopefully gfs is wrong because to be blunt,its awful with a very poor profile at Northern latitudes...

[Ian Brown]

Hopefully gfs is wrong because to be blunt,its awful with a very poor profile at Northern latitudes...

 

I think as has been alluded to wrt the Strat, the impact of the cooling will be felt with the PV strengthening. Only low heights in Southern Europe can then save us from conventional zonality.

[shotski]

I think the outcome in a weeks time is going to be very similar to this from the JMA.

With high pressure just north of the UK.

Edited November 17, 2013 by shotski

[IDO]

If the GFS op is wrong it is going to be consistent; strong trend, run after run for a MLB close to the UK. No sign of this looking like going north, especially with a strong PV over Greenland:

T348: T384:

This is a similar profile from D5 onwards. A Rex Block...

Edited November 17, 2013 by i'm dreaming of...

[Captain Shortwave]

UKMO T144

 

GFS T144

Very different handling upstream, namely the UKMO making a lot less of the Canadian PV lobe

GEM (FINALLY  )

Edited November 17, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[nick sussex]

That's a good point. I think people should look at the PV at T 96 and T 120 on both GFS and UKMO. The differences up there have an impact on the high near us.

You can see at 144hrs just how much confusion there is regarding what happens to the PV and low pressure moving out of the USA, the UKMO and GFS disagree completely on both.  Even with this though we can see the problems caused by the high not being cut off, that shortwave to the sw is thrown ne as its parent  low phases with that low near Newfoundland. The energy heads ne, not se,the GFS doesn't even have this shortwave at T120hrs so we can see its really an uncertain outlook past this point.

 

It's impossible to have faith in any output past 120hrs until these issues are resolved.

[The Post-modern Winter]

I think as has been alluded to wrt the Strat, the impact of the cooling will be felt with the PV strengthening. Only low heights in Southern Europe can then save us from conventional zonality.

I think you need to take a look at the updates in the strat thread from today. Do you think Chino's rather upbeat from this morning is entirely baseless?

Edited November 17, 2013 by The Post-modern Winter

[Snowman.]

If the GFS op is wrong it is going to be consistent; strong trend, run after run for a MLB close to the UK. No sign of this looking like going north, especially with a strong PV over Greenland:

T348: gfsnh-0-348.png T384: gfsnh-0-384.png

This is a similar profile from D5 onwards. A Rex Block...

Wouldn't call it strong.

This is strong.

 

[Summer Sun]

Looks like the NAO will be negative for the remainder of this month but towards December we have hints of it returning to positive

 

[Panayiotis]

This is nice from the GEM at 186hrs.

[Gaz1985]

Long way off but early December looking similar to December 2001 with strong high pressure slap bang above us. Which means frost, fog but some good sunshine. 

 

[Summer Sun]

GEM back to one of its deep lows in FI

 

[karlos1983]

Looking forward to the ECM, short term seems to be sorted now, just need to get some agreement from say +96 onward, that's where my attention will be on this run.

[Snowy L]

I think as has been alluded to wrt the Strat, the impact of the cooling will be felt with the PV strengthening. Only low heights in Southern Europe can then save us from conventional zonality.

 

Yes vortex splits are usually indicative of zonal weather...

Edited November 17, 2013 by Snowy L

[karlos1983]

be interesting to see what happens with that low in the mid-Atlantic, seems to be splitting the High in half?

 

[Barry12]

T72

 

 

t92

 

Edited November 17, 2013 by Barry95

[radiohead]

Quite a difference between the GFS and ECM at T96.

 

[Barry12]

Comparison between the ECM, GFS and UKMO at T96

 

Edited November 17, 2013 by Barry95

[MPG]

Comparison between the big 3 at T96

 

and what are the differences and the effects?

[Cloud 10]

ECM 120hrs teeing up a Northerly?

 

[Jonan92]

That little low is Invest 98-L, so who knows who it will develop...