Model Output Discussion 13/11/13 >

[Tom Jarvis]

GFS PTB 10 is the first ensemble to work it out although there are 5 or 6 that nearly get there

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=126&code=10&mode=0&carte=1

 

give it another 24/48 hours & they will catch up

 

S

however FI it rams up the PV and topples the high to put us back at square one with zonal westerly's

[Cal]

however FI it rams up the PV and topples the high to put us back at square one with zonal westerly's

Think it is the small tentative steps the GFS takes to get to the correct solution, i.e. northern blocking, on full blown zonality it does ok generally, however for our shores i would take the UK Met O n ECM to be the correct synoptic solution.

[radiohead]

The model output for Invest 98l show a range of tracks and timing differences. This is the low thats comin up against the high and I think it's a key part of the story in how things play out from T96 onwards. Until this is resolved I'm highly skeptical of all model output beyond the next few days.

 

Edited November 18, 2013 by radiohead

[ARNOTT ad]

Ukmo looked great until 144

[TSNWK]

Morning. My 1st attempt at posting my view on the charts. Lets see if I have learned anything, sorry if wrong. GFS 00:00 18/11 looks like a step in the right direction for collides, high appears to build further north up to 120, drifts towards Scandinavia and draws in what looks to me a long fetch Eastley for the rest of hi-res. Low res, how drifts around Europe, tends to be north Europe based no Atlantic throughout run.

Looked like a fairly good run to me as a coldie.

Hope not far of the truth.

[The PIT]

GFS won't please people this morning. If that come off it will probably mean a lot grey skies in the east with little temp variation. Pretty much good agreement at T144 FI land and the UKMO though. The key is where the high goes.

Edited November 18, 2013 by The PIT

[That ECM]

Morning. My 1st attempt at posting my view on the charts. Lets see if I have learned anything, sorry if wrong. GFS 00:00 18/11 looks like a step in the right direction for collides, high appears to build further north up to 120, drifts towards Scandinavia and draws in what looks to me a long fetch Eastley for the rest of hi-res. Low res, how drifts around Europe, tends to be north Europe based no Atlantic throughout run.Looked like a fairly good run to me as a coldie.Hope not far of the truth.

Well done and having a go. If you have a look at T144 of the UKMO and notice the PV. This modelled in a similar way to the ECM of last night. If there were further frames, to my money it would follow a similar out come to ECM. In contrast GFS has the PV in such away that makes pressure rising to the nw more difficult. ECM at t96 as I write this looks like following on from last night. Would someone please post T144 nh profile for the three for comparison please? Edited November 18, 2013 by That ECM

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Nail biting ECM, will the energy go into the southern arm at 168h?

Not sure it will but its a cold run anyway and a darn sight better then GFS which is to be frank,In my opinion, is an embarrassment.

Edited November 18, 2013 by happy days

[Polar Maritime]

Here we go..

 

[shaky]

Well here is my take on things. Ecm is very good again!!ukmo an improvement on last night aaaannnddd the gfs well am not going to bother with that!!

[That ECM]

Here we go..

 

.

Many thanks. Not difficult to see the differences. Which one is correct or nearer to the mark? Time will tell but UKMO and ECM V GFS.!!! If anything GFS has moved more towards the other two tho.

[Mark Neal.]

SO Ecm toys again with the high moving W-NW and towards Greenland, with a cold pool to our NE coming down from the North, interesting! 

[shaky]

Ecm is brilliant. Navgem also carries on from its last two runs and brings in a north or northeasterly. If you take a closer look peeps the gfs has moved over to the ecm this morning in being more amplified. Ukmo was fine but then it goes slightly wrong at 144 hours

[Ian Brown]

Sausages for breakfast from the ECM:

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013111800/ECM1-240.GIF?18-12

 

Quite a different run before then too with low heights plunging into Europe compared with the GFS which is a HP fest. As we know though with that ECM chart, you can't bank those at T96 never mind T240..

[That ECM]

Sausages for breakfast from the ECM: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013111800/ECM1-240.GIF?18-12 Quite a different run before then too with low heights plunging into Europe compared with the GFS which is a HP fest. As we know though with that ECM chart, you can't bank those at T96 never mind T240..

Ramp alert from IB!!!!

[P-M]

Sausages for breakfast from the ECM:

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013111800/ECM1-240.GIF?18-12

 

Quite a different run before then too with low heights plunging into Europe compared with the GFS which is a HP fest. As we know though with that ECM chart, you can't bank those at T96 never mind T240..

 

God it must be good think that's the first "ramp" since I've seen in well....ages lol (no offence meant Ian)

 

Edit - beaten to it lol 

Edited November 18, 2013 by P-M

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Sausages for breakfast from the ECM:

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013111800/ECM1-240.GIF?18-12

 

Quite a different run before then too with low heights plunging into Europe compared with the GFS which is a HP fest. As we know though with that ECM chart, you can't bank those at T96 never mind T240..

ECM is STUNNING.

I hope i dont have visions of Jim Bowen........'here's what you could have won'.  

[bluearmy]

Hmmm - one fi is just fun. Two consecs is interesting. Three would be a trend!

Of course this is the first winter we've seen ECM op running at 137 levels. There must be clear water somewhere with that much more resolution.

[West is Best]

Great suite of overnight runs. If you think back three or four days there have been successive upgrades now in both the short and longer terms. Best thing for cold lovers to do? Enjoy it and don't lose sleep over every T240 detail. It will come and go with ups and downs but the pattern change is clear: we're in for a damned serious cold spell.

[SMU]

Morning crackerjack ECM but there is no margin for erroor

Ukmo not on board yet always a worry, however kudos to navgem if that turns out to be correct like the ECM

S

[Mucka]

No change really this morning with ECM and GFS sticking to their guns and UKMO somewhere in the middle. 

That said I think the fact that ECM has shown some consistency over the last 3 runs and GFS has crept ever so slightly in that direction is good news.

 

I said yesterday that when there is strong divergence between ECM and GFS that rarely one model is correct and we often end up with a blended solution which is more or less where the MetO stands. MetO may be the barometer here on which way things are swinging.

Edited November 18, 2013 by Mucka

[Jonan92]

Navgem yesterday 00z run

 

 

ECM yesterday 00z run

 

 

Navgem today 00z run

 

 

ECm today 00z run

 

[trisnow]

I've read a fair bit about the GFS always eventually plays catch up with the ECM and comes on board in scenario's such as this one but, can someone clarify if I remember this right - Wasn't there a scenario similar to this sometime last year around this time when most of, if not all of the other models were showing cold and lots of snow on the horizon and GFS was out on its own right up until a few days before and then suddenly all the others fell in line with the GFS and it had been right all along? I think it was about the time a member joined here with the username "ThatECM" (due to a particular stonking ECM). The reason this sticks in my mind is that I was doing my usual tendency to read these threads constantly at this time of year looking for clues (as I don't know very much about the charts) and I got my hopes up and was sure it was going to happen because it was only the GFS out on its own saying it wasn't.

Edited November 18, 2013 by trisnow

[Jonan92]

Comparison of most of the models this morning

 

ECM



GFS



UKMO



GEM



Navgem



JMA (yesterday's 12z)



Nasa



BOM

 

GFS & BOM vs ECM and all the minor models

[The Northern Ramper]

Navgem yesterday 00z run

 

 

ECM yesterday 00z run

 

 

Navgem today 00z run

 

 

ECm today 00z run

 

Definite trend there.

I've read a fair bit about the GFS always eventually plays catch up with the ECM and comes on board in scenario's such as this one but, can someone clarify if I remember this right - Wasn't there a scenario similar to this sometime last year around this time when most of, if not all of the other models were showing cold and lots of snow on the horizon and GFS was out on its own right up until a few days before and then suddenly all the others fell in line with the GFS and it had been right all along? I think it was about the time a member joined here with the username "ThatECM". The reason this sticks in my mind is that I was doing my usual tendency to read these threads constantly at this time of year looking for clues (as I don't know very much about the charts) and I got my hopes up and was sure it was going to happen because it was only the GFS out on its own saying it wasn't.

Even the blind squirrel will occasionally find a nut.