Model Output Discussion 13/11/13 >

[Chess01]

Comparison of most of the models this morning

ECM

GFS

UKMO

GEM

Navgem

JMA (yesterday's 12z)

Nasa

BOM

GFS & BOM vs ECM and all the minor models

looking at them it's only the gfs that hasn't got a trend but by the looks of it will catch up with the rest

[IDO]

The spread on the GFS sums it up, members struggling for consistency:

The pressure charts for Greenland highlight this:

The op run is out of kilter with the mean. Hints of higher pressure over Greenland from many members.

The CFS December anomaly has been picking up HLB on its recent runs:

Trending at the moment for a greater chance of the MLB moving north...

[karlos1983]

Very happy this morning, UKMO looks good at 120 and then loses it at 144. ECM is cold all the way through the run.

I see the Express are at it again, when will they learn. That's just profiteering in my eyes. Disgusting Journalism.

[Mucka]

Very happy this morning, UKMO looks good at 120 and then loses it at 144. ECM is cold all the way through the run.I see the Express are at it again, when will they learn. That's just profiteering in my eyes. Disgusting Journalism.

 

It may be disgusting and sensationalist but it isn't profiteering - not as we know it anyway Jim.

[radiohead]

0ZZ ECM ENS day 10 is similar to yesterday, with a signal for high pressure to our north/northwest.

 

[Purga]

ECM good, GFS bad, UKMO bad

 

2 big ones against 1 big one. Looks shaky to me with METO going for a gradual degradation to zonal SW'lies in the end.

However, there could be some frosts around in the short / medium term one hopes.

[Summer Sun]

Well yesterday morning I think Ian Fergusson said something along the lines MOGREPS 15 heading towards south westerly with a gradual return to average temps early December

 

 

This mornings UKMO seems to be moving that way

 

 

Come tonight we'll probably have a different pattern on offer given how the models are struggling for consistency at the moment

Edited November 18, 2013 by Summer Sun

[swfc]

Seems confusion is still king atm on mo!As sm said ecm is the model most would love to come to fruition but is a tricky one until it reaches the 240 hrs mark.The 500mb charts paint a clearer picture but not being familiar with them i dont understand why they dont transfer down more into the generall mo?guessing the complex situation atmosphere wise and locality play a part but john would be the man to speak to i guess.If i was to have a punt id go for a middle ground between ecm and the ukmo but all in fi

 

Edited November 18, 2013 by swfc

[MPG]

Seems confusion is still king atm on mo!As sm said ecm is the model most would love to come to fruition but is a tricky one until it reaches the 240 hrs mark.The 500mb charts paint a clearer picture but not being familiar with them i dont understand why they dont transfer down more into the generall mo?guessing the complex situation atmosphere wise and locality play a part but john would be the man to speak to i guess.If i was to have a punt id go for a middle ground between ecm and the ukmo but i woudnt or dont know where gfs sits

woudnt you also think that the high would pull north west ss? Looks very inline with ecm imo,just a thought and all in fi

Well yesterday morning I think Ian Fergusson said something along the lines MOGREPS 15 heading towards south westerly winds

 

This mornings UKMO seems to be moving that way

It looks like the high has nowhere else to go except NW. Again SS confusing people with single frame analysis.

[swfc]

Well yesterday morning I think Ian Fergusson said something along the lines MOGREPS 15 heading towards south westerly with a gradual return to average temps early December

 

 

This mornings UKMO seems to be moving that way

 

 

Come tonight we'll probably have a different pattern on offer given how the models are struggling for consistency at the moment

Woudnt you think the high would pull north west here ss as indicated on ecm?just a thought.Sorry double posted?what a b------!

Edited November 18, 2013 by swfc

[The PIT]

Got to be wary on just following the ECM it does sometimes get it wrong sometimes. Again there's too much faith being put in deep FI. Fairly good agreement between at 144 and then differences emerge which is to be expected.

Well it looks like everything depends on where the high sets itself.

[Mucka]

MetO may not be great at 144 but the 120 chart looks as though it has energy heading SE under the block.

 

 

 

Although at 144 that energy looks to have ridden up the Western flank of the high.

 

 

Wouldn't take much to have that 144 chart looking much better on this evenings run.

[radiohead]

Probability is increasing that the low in the Atlantic will becoming a tropical/subtropical storm within the next couple of days.

 

THIS SYSTEM HAS AHIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICALCYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS....AND A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURINGTHE NEXT 5 DAYS.

 

Need to keep an eye on this as it's track, intensity and how it interacts with another low exiting off Newfoundland.

[That ECM]

ECM good, GFS bad, UKMO bad

 

2 big ones against 1 big one. Looks shaky to me with METO going for a gradual degradation to zonal SW'lies in the end.

However, there could be some frosts around in the short / medium term one hopes.

I think people are confused to which way the wind goes around low pressure and high pressure.

[Weathizard]

Seems confusion is still king atm on mo!As sm said ecm is the model most would love to come to fruition but is a tricky one until it reaches the 240 hrs mark.The 500mb charts paint a clearer picture but not being familiar with them i dont understand why they dont transfer down more into the generall mo?guessing the complex situation atmosphere wise and locality play a part but john would be the man to speak to i guess.If i was to have a punt id go for a middle ground between ecm and the ukmo but all in fi

Indeed it's an exceptionally tough one to call but every winter we have these moments, UKMO isn't too bad really at 120 but obvious the 144 chart won't lead to the same outcome as the ECM. And with regards to the MOGREPS it's just as fallible as all the other ensemble suites in reality, last winter proved that.

[Summer Sun]

Latest from Gibby

 

All models do indeed show an impending and probably prolonged cold period beginning today in the North and West and tonight elsewhere. The current cloudy and dull conditions across the South with some light rain will be pushed away SE this evening and tonight then all areas will be covered by a NW flow with wintry showers affecting all Northern and Western areas with settling snow on the hills and frost and icy roads elsewhere. This lasts until Wednesday when a new Low moves down the North Sea with a spell of strong winds and rain preceded and followed by the risk of snow over the hills as it pulls away South on Thursday. High pressure builds in across Northern areas particularly by the end of the week with frost and fog widespread by night with cold crisp days where fog clears. In the South more of a NE or East wind looks likely to persist removing the risk of wide scale fog but keeping some cloud and the possibility of wintry showers instead, especially near the SE coast.

 

GFS shows the South cold and breezy through the weekend while northern areas stay brighter and cold with frost and fog patches. It should stay largely dry though. The status-quo persists through much of the remainder of the run though the Easterly flow in the South is shown to veer SE and decrease as renewed High pressure then settles the whole of the UK into fine and cold weather at the end with further frost and more widespread fog problems.

 

UKMO this morning ends it's run with High pressure positioned over Northern Scotland with ridges to Iceland, Scandinavia and the Azores. A cold NE flow is maintained across the South with largely dry conditions apart from the odd wintry shower near the Coast. Elsewhere would be dry, bright and sunny by day with frost and freezing fog patches overnight, likely to be slow to clear in places.

 

GEM today has a more UK based High pressure area over the weekend and the start of next week with frost and fog widespread in light winds. Towards the end of the run the High is shown to pull slowly NW introducing a cold NE feed across Southern and Eastern England with a few showers by midweek next week.

 

NAVGEM keeps High pressure much further NW, near Iceland which keeps all of the UK under a cold and wintry North then NE flow with wintry showers all down Eastern coasts throughout and spreading well inland at times towards Central areas. The West would stay largely dry with clear or sunny spells but it would be cold for all with widespread night frosts though little fog from this set-up.

 

ECM builds High pressure in temporarily from the West and NW to affect all but the far SE towards the weekend with a cold, dry period with frost and patchy fog for all Western and Northern areas in particular. Eastern and SE coastal areas will continue with an onshore NE wind bringing the risk of the odd wintry shower. Then as the High retracts North towards Northern Scandnavia an unstable, fairly light but cold Easterly flow will increase the threat of wintry precipitation late in the run, more especially for Southern and Eastern areas.

 

The GFS Ensembles show that any mild weather is fairly unlikely through the forecast period. It is therefore more likely to trend rather colder than average overall with not much in the way of rain indicating the proximity of High pressure to the UK. The High's position is mandatory for cold weather over the UK and most do trend for it to be towards the North giving the UK a good chance of seeing some early winter chill.

 

The Jet Stream today shows the flow buckling South across the UK to feed a Southern arm of the flow over Southern Europe. A split flow is shown later in the week before the pattern become diffuse and unclear next week.

 

In Summary today the models have taken a step forward towards a more cold prospect being maintained over the UK for the majority of the period at least. With a much increased trend to show High pressure to the North of the UK it leaves the gates open for Northerly or Easterly incursions to envelope the UK aided by Low pressure over Southern Europe. There is a rather unsettled period to get through during the middle of this week before the pattern will clarify further but as it stands cold weather looks set to stay for quite a while and though mostly High pressure based ECM and NAVGEM show the possibility of a much more unstable NE flow setting up with the chance of some wintriness scattered about towards the end of the outputs. Frosts look like becoming widespread but with the prospect of High pressure staying just offshore to the North of the UK the slightly stronger breeze may limit this somewhat from what was being shown recently.

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z op run has built on the solid foundations it layed last night and taken it to the next level, it's an increasingly superb run which is full of icy / snowy potential for the coming weeks, and this week will be wintry, just imagine what next week would be like. ...what a fantastic start to the working week, nothing better than a stonking Ecm run to put a spring in your step, how often do we get eye candy within the reliable timeframe? these ecm thickness charts are magnificent..the only monday morning blues are on these charts.  

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013111806/gfsnh-0-72.png?6

 

06z out to 72 & another whiff of the coffee sees the updated track on the low more favourable.

 

S

[Tim Bland]

Quote Gavin

"Come tonight we'll probably have a different pattern on offer given how the models are struggling for consistency at the moment

Well yesterday morning I think Ian Fergusson said something along the lines MOGREPS 15 heading towards south westerly with a gradual return to average temps early December"

 

 

The MOGREPS model is just as fickle as any other. For all we know it has already changed and looks more like the ECM.

 

Personaly I think its 50/50 whether GFS or ECM are correct. If you look at the synoptics there is not much difference. The angle of that atlantic ridge just makes a huge difference to the UK weather.

Edited November 18, 2013 by Tim Bland

[Jonan92]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013111806/gfsnh-0-72.png?6

 

06z out to 72 & another whiff of the coffee sees the updated track on the low more favourable.

 

S

 

GFS still doesn't show the low north of Island

 

GFS

 

 

ECM

 

[shedhead]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013111806/gfsnh-0-72.png?6

 

06z out to 72 & another whiff of the coffee sees the updated track on the low more favourable.

 

S

Isn't GFS supposed to be 'cannon fodder', especially the 06?

[Matty M]

Certainly a step in the right direction from the GFS 6z

 

[Summer Sun]

ECM ensemble keeps high pressure over the UK from Friday till the following Thursday and maybe longer so a lot of dry and chilly weather around cloud permitting frosts would be quite widespread

 

[swfc]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013111806/gfsnh-0-72.png?6

 

06z out to 72 & another whiff of the coffee sees the updated track on the low more favourable.

 

S

Indeed at 102 hrs much better orientation of the high and trending slowly ecm

[Jonan92]

GFS looking similar to ECM now

 

ECM

 

 

GFS

 

 

Still not there but a move forward

Edited November 18, 2013 by Jonan92