Model Output Discussion 4th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z perturbations have a few wintry trends in the immediate run up to christmas, i'm looking for a decent cold spell and if it means looking beyond T+300 hours then so be it.

[karlos1983]

This looks good to me...

Nice set if ensembles right there, just what we needed to see, little steps.

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Ecm looked a bit better today small steps n all that plus i just want to say hats off to Ian F when he mentioned about high winds more than a week ago the sea defences here got breached earlier due to tidal surge lets hope charts improve

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Lol , so I finished work , went to the gym , then had a game of footie , came home , and see a very nice ECM , does this mean anything ? Well it means something until 7am tomorrow morning , with a good set of ensembles to go with it m which tells us it's not a done deal , so therefore please realise that this could go either way , but just because for 2 days on the trot we have nothing but rubbish (apart from gem and to an extent ukmo) it doesn't mean we can right off the next 3 weeks does it?

So with a set of ensembles like that , it tells us the gem could well of been a trend setter.

Also we had a low to our south toward the end of the run that vanished on the next frame , that looks suspicious , it looked like it would undercut .

Game on :/))

[fergieweather]

 

Ecm looked a bit better today small steps n all that plus i just want to say hats off to Ian F when he mentioned about high winds more than a week ago the sea defences here got breached earlier due to tidal surge lets hope charts improve

Hats off to UKMO, not me. They noticed some ENS members back then and in briefing to us commented how some "...exhibit a serious threat of coastal flooding from storm surge, which needs close monitoring...". It says much for just how far we've advanced since 1953, a year when neither the Lynmouth floods nor East Coast floods were either well-signalled or communicated in terms of public warning (irrespective of their vastly differing mechanisms). The array of high-res flood modelling available now at the FFC is simply staggering, be it coastal or fluvial in nature. EA have worked very well on the warnings for this event, in my opinion.

[ARNOTT ad]

Look at those very GOOD ensembles!! Very few milder options and op on milder side! Will they count is question....

[Panayiotis]

Look at those very GOOD ensembles!! Very few milder options and op on milder side! Will they count is question....

*Between Thursday and Friday yes, otherwise its following the mean..

[bluearmy]

although the extended ecm ens still not visible in detail, the conclusion from today is the pendulum has swung that little bit back to a continental influence from the scandi ridge. clearly moreso the further east and south you are. i guess the main question tomorrow will be if ukmo can continue its rather more amplified output and do the ops offer a better chance of an undercut than the ens which continue to shy away from this solution. i doubt that there will be much action apart from this. gfs will continue to be flatter as it always seems to be. cant help but think that we will eventually pay for this dryness - a descending winter and higher than average precip later on would certainly provoke excitement on here!

[Earth Wind and Snow]

This looks good to me...

Yes I thought the operational would be a rogue run base on most of the other output tonight - however those ECM ensembles keeps us interested - at least until tomorows' runs, especially as UKMO also shows signs of amplification.

 

Hopefully things will improve following some dire output over the last few days - I can live with mild mush for now in the hope things set up favorably for a cold shot by Crimbo

 

EWS      

[mountain shadow]

Im staggered by those 12z ECM ens. after the 0z runs.

Some turnaround if...If an Easterly does occur.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Im staggered by those 12z ECM ens. after the 0z runs.Some turnaround if...If an Easterly does occur.

I was just thinkin that myself MS,a really big almost seismic shift this evening.

If nothing else it gives us something to talk about!!

[swfc]

yes big shift there with the ens!!!wow nelson mandela has died!rip.

[bluearmy]

Im staggered by those 12z ECM ens. after the 0z runs.Some turnaround if...If an Easterly does occur.

 

MS, surely the anomolys have shown that a gentle continental drift remains the favoured option. it may end up an easterly but there is little evidence it will be the kind of easterly that many crave on here.  remember that holland is a cold place in december if there isnt a flow off the north sea or a long fetch souwester.  the uk would be a few degrees less cold unless we see an inversion.

[Weathizard]

Are those De Blit ensembles really surprising? Under high pressure mainland Europe will be seriously cold even with relatively 'mild' uppers? Or maybe I'm wrong.

[ARNOTT ad]

MS, surely the anomolys have shown that a gentle continental drift remains the favoured option. it may end up an easterly but there is little evidence it will be the kind of easterly that many crave on here.  remember that holland is a cold place in december if there isnt a flow off the north sea or a long fetch souwester.  the uk would be a few degrees less cold unless we see an inversion.

It's an improvement! A significant one. Can't we be optimistic? The charts are dreadful enough right now

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

GFS18Z is a slight improvement with the high ever so slightly further north.

[Ali1977]

Not looking like the pub run will live upto it's name, maybe FI will throw something up.

[snowmadchrisuk]

The angle of the low East of Greenland looks much better on the 18z , hopefully our High will now be able to ridge further North , We need that to move quickly NE before any action can begin . 

Edited December 5, 2013 by snowmadchrisuk

[Gael_Force]

Ryan Maue tweet regarding the CMC NAO forecast - pre-Xmas weather not a done deal yet!

 

[Panayiotis]

18z continuing the improvements with the low over the Azores; deepened, has moved further north and a has a slight negative tilt. Deeper cold pooling over eastern Europe, and less of a PV over Greenland. Very positive indeed! Can we see the easterly on this run by day 10? I give it 55%....

Edited December 5, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Cloud 10]

Any news on the NAEFS?

 

Hasn't updated since Tuesday.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I tell you summat, that high is getting further and further N with each GFS run at present. The 18z has under a chilly continental flow next week now.

[bobbydog]

to be honest, technical terms fail me right now. the models are throwing up this constantly recurring 'nearly but not quite' pattern, which will not go away. lots of perturbations across the models, frequently showing very wintry scenarios.

 

its like a landmine in a field full of sheep.

 

sooner or later.....

 

BOOM!

[bluearmy]

Any news on the NAEFS? Hasn't updated since Tuesday.

I was impressed with its continuity!

[Snowman.]

18z

 

12z 

 

Bearing in mind the 12z bias is overdoing the Jet and the 18z one is High amplification hence being called the pub run.

 

But you can see the big differences there.