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Possible severe Atlantic storm Wednesday 18th December 2013 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

    Another round of Atlantic lows looks like battering us again from Wednesday 18th through to Friday including the named storm "Emily":

     

    GFS has it sort of like this:

     

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    A big one Friday:

     

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    More potential for very high gusts and sustained winds around 80 mph in exposed places?

    Gale-force winds of up to 90mph have been tipped to hit Britain before Christmas.
     
    A so-called Storm Emily could spread across the country from the middle of next week, forecasters have warned. Experts from the Weather Channel have named the storm after Victorian author Emily Brontë – the woman who wrote Wuthering Heights, and who died 165 years ago next Thursday. However, the Met Office insists pre-Christmas conditions remain uncertain, beyond expecting this weekend to be generally wet and windy.
     
    A large area of high pressure is expected to shift from central and southern Europe towards Britain from today. Southern England should remain dry and bright tomorrow, with northern areas wetter and windier, while gales hit north-west Scotland, the Weather Channel suggested.

     

     

    http://metro.co.uk/2013/12/13/90mph-storm-emily-to-strike-britain-next-week-4228974/

    Edited by Coast
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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Away from Northern Ireland and Scotland Wednesday doesn't look too bad at the moment weaker than Saturdays system and allowing for the normal downgrades could well be a gentle leaf rustler by the time we get there. Friday looking much more potent and widespread but again we need to watch the downgrades. However you never know we may have some upgrades to enjoy.

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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=1.71,54.90,1636

     

    This map is great for looking at the lows and windspeeds.

     

    Edit: Didn't realise it was already posted yesterday. My bad!

     

     

     

    Some nasty looking GEFS Ensembles for christmas eve/christmas day too.

     

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    GFS still looking rather stormy for Scotland in a few days time.

     

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    ECM has it quite a bit deeper, but a little further north.

     

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    Whatever happens, I think the next couple of weeks are going to be very interesting. Posted Image

    Edited by Sainsbo
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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Friday still looking the main event although Wednesday has been upgraded a little with a band of strong winds transferring across the country during the evening. Friday looks yummy to me a real prolonged blow across the country.

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    Posted
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire

    oooooh Emily is going to come and try and Blow me.......Must be Christmas

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    Would be concerned about storm surge potential in parts of western Ireland and Scotland as the Wed night event is culmination of a long-fetch high wind period across the Atlantic and comes immediately after the full moon (17th).

     

    Agree that the Wed night event is less severe for much of southern UK than Friday could be, but uncertainty about outcome on Wed night makes the possible range fairly large (UKMO an outlier with only slight development of this event, rest of model suite fairly uniform as of 12z runs about 950 mb low near Donegal Bay Wed evening).

     

    Potential from current guidance for max gusts of 80-90 kt in Ireland and Scotland, outside chance of 100 kt peak. If current maps verify, this would scale down rather steadily to 65 kt northern Wales and England, 45-50 kt southern and central England. The Friday event is somewhat the reverse, with potential for 60-70 kt gusts south, 50-55 north.

     

    PIT, you should have a look at the wetterzentrale archive maps for 16-17 Dec 1873 (maybe you already have). I've read that there was a damaging wind event in Sheffield on the 16th. The maps (which are for 00z) look relatively tame, even if 12z and 18z maps are interpolated, no gradients much greater than 40 knots. Do you think those maps are missing critical data or was there a line squall involved?

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Roger it could be the effect of the Pennines and winds bouncing off warmer air aloft as in 1962 http://www.genuki.org.uk/big/eng/YKS/Misc/Transcriptions/WRY/SheffieldHurricane1873.html

    Edited by The PIT
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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District 290 mts. Wind speed 340 mts
  • Weather Preferences: Rain/snow, fog, gales and cold in every season
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District 290 mts. Wind speed 340 mts

    I see the ECM has a low near Iceland with a central pressure below 916 mb at 240 hrs. If it were to materialise surely it would be close to a record for the north Atlantic.  http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ecm;sess=2fb70d199705a1768bd060b719709faa

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    I wouldn't like being under that low if it appears.

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    I see the ECM has a low near Iceland with a central pressure below 916 mb at 240 hrs. If it were to materialise surely it would be close to a record for the north Atlantic.  http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ecm;sess=2fb70d199705a1768bd060b719709faa

    could possibly produce some of the highest windspeeds ever recorded in uk if that came of !!!...
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    Posted
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales, thunderstorms, snow
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire

    The low for Wednesday night into Thursday looks deeper on the 18z

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    Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

    Would be concerned about storm surge potential in parts of western Ireland and Scotland as the Wed night event is culmination of a long-fetch high wind period across the Atlantic and comes immediately after the full moon (17th).

     

    Agree that the Wed night event is less severe for much of southern UK than Friday could be, but uncertainty about outcome on Wed night makes the possible range fairly large (UKMO an outlier with only slight development of this event, rest of model suite fairly uniform as of 12z runs about 950 mb low near Donegal Bay Wed evening).

     

    Potential from current guidance for max gusts of 80-90 kt in Ireland and Scotland, outside chance of 100 kt peak. If current maps verify, this would scale down rather steadily to 65 kt northern Wales and England, 45-50 kt southern and central England. The Friday event is somewhat the reverse, with potential for 60-70 kt gusts south, 50-55 north.

     

    PIT, you should have a look at the wetterzentrale archive maps for 16-17 Dec 1873 (maybe you already have). I've read that there was a damaging wind event in Sheffield on the 16th. The maps (which are for 00z) look relatively tame, even if 12z and 18z maps are interpolated, no gradients much greater than 40 knots. Do you think those maps are missing critical data or was there a line squall involved?

     

    I think the 12Z charts might shed some light on the event. The 00Z from either side miss the cold plunge completely.

     

    Posted ImagePosted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

    18z GFS brings 80-90mph gusts over N Ireland and also the Western Isles take a hammering as well overnight into Thursday.

     

    post-9615-0-21387000-1387145340_thumb.pn post-9615-0-16262900-1387145374_thumb.pn Sub 950mb

     

    The focus of the strongest winds are further south on Friday, also a long way off yet! 

     

    post-9615-0-33906000-1387145807_thumb.jp

    Edited by Liam J
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