Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[keithlucky]

The stronger upper Scandi ridge = weaker Atlantic Ridge. So GFS and ECM diametrically opposed. GFS at T150:

 

gfsnh-0-150.png

 

This stalls the Atlantic for a while, see where it goes from here.

Just stays there and weakens

[Mucka]

UKMO not blinking either, no Atlantic ridge, no Scandi ridge, is a crazy, Mamma mia!

 

Edited January 1, 2014 by Mucka

[Captain Shortwave]

So the GFS builds a brick wall to the East of the UK, but with us in mild south westerly winds. At least it shows some promise as a few tweaks could bring cold air and undercutting lows. The UKMO just sticks the middle finger up to both GFS and ECM and keeps a much flatter Atlantic pattern compared to the ECM and no ridging to the north east like the GFS does.

This is getting ridiculous 

[Jason M]

Doesn't get more zonal than this....

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0

[cooling climate]

Could be a very cold FI coming up on the 12z run.

Edited January 1, 2014 by cooling climate

[Bobby]

Some hints of a change appearing in the models but hard to tell if it's a false dawn or whether the unsettled Atlantic zonality will continue for the forseeable. On balance it seems continued unsettled Atlantic weather is the form horse but future model runs will clarify. I'm expecting to the ECM to back off its solution this evening, we shall see!

[phil nw.]

Different solutions between GFS/UKMO wrt the structure of those Greenland/Canadian lobes but the weakness within the centre of the vortex slowing the eastward movement in the pattern.

At the moment the Atlantic though still getting too far east to change things in the short term for the UK.

However interesting developments.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Desperately poor gfs 12z.

Struggling to record a ground frost before mid January..

[Jason M]

Doesn't get more zonal than this....

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0

 

 

I was wrong it does ...........

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0 

[Mucka]

Amusingly GEM goes somewhere between GFS and ECM with more ridging both East and West than this mornings run but both slightly half hearted. So 4 models 4 different solutions for day 5 so far.

 

Edited January 1, 2014 by Mucka

[Ali1977]

If the ECM still shows an eastily at day 9, then maybe the GFS's attempt at building a Scandy high on the 12Z is the start of change. This time the Atlantic Won through, however it was closer than the 06z to producing the goods..could get better each run.

[IDO]

Yes a poor GFS run on all counts, strat wise, its a backward step.

 

Warming at T384 at 10hPa:    Heights: 

 

At the end of FI a reinvigorated PV: 

 

Yuck.

 

 

[Purga]

Could be a very cold FI coming up on the 12z run.

It isn't

 

Rinse and repeat - zonal all the way.

[Mucka]

We often say there is no point in getting hung up on FI charts from single Op runs but that was never truer than now with such differences in the output just a few days in.

 

GEM has the weak Atlantic ridge aided by the heights built NE and eventually hints at a slider. Not a cold run but interesting synoptic.

 

 

NAVGEM also hints at a slider option although the troughs phase and prevent it this run

 

Edited January 1, 2014 by Mucka

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

We often say there is no point in getting hung up on FI charts from single Op runs but that was never truer than now with such differences in the output just a few days in.

 

GEM has the weak Atlantic ridge aided by the heights built NE and eventually hints at a slider. Not a cold run but interesting synoptic.

 

Looks poor to me mucka with a fat euro high and big PV sat to the North west.

[Jason M]

This is starting to all look a bit 'winter of 88' to me. Maybe not quite as warm but were looking out to mid Jan already. Some records could go in mainland Europe if this carries on though.

One small straw to grasp is from the GEM & METO which look similar upstream at 144 hours. GEM then produces the following at day 10.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0&carte=0

Edited January 1, 2014 by Jason M

[IDO]

We often say there is no point in getting hung up on FI charts from single Op runs but that was never truer than now with such differences in the output just a few days in.

 

GEM has the weak Atlantic ridge aided by the heights built NE and eventually hints at a slider. Not a cold run but interesting synoptic.

 

 

 

Yes, agree, FI starts at about T120. Its where the downstream upper Scandi ridge builds, if it builds. ECM pushes it into Russia, allowing height rises in the Atlantic, GFS nearer Scandi so usurping the Atlantic Ridge. GEM and UKMO can't make their mind up and explore the middle ground.

 

Until that is resolved anything in FI is just for interest sake.

[snow1975]

It isn't

 

Rinse and repeat - zonal all the way.

Those westerlies could be pretty cold especially the further north you are. Plenty snow above 300m I think.

[Mucka]

Looks poor to me mucka with a fat euro high and big PV sat to the North west.

 

Yes as mentioned this morning that Euro high wanting to build North is a real fly in the ointment. In that situation we would be better off having less ridging to our SE and then the slider could push NW/SE leaving weak high pressure to the North which could be good for snow chances anywhere N and East of  future disrupting trough.

Edited January 1, 2014 by Mucka

[weather eater]

Here we are in the premier inn in rainy Enfield, well the 12z is pretty much as I expected anyone what a small bet that the ECM will back off from its 0z run. No sense worrying about the strat warning projection as that will chop and change as with all model projections.

[Mucka]

Yes, agree, FI starts at about T120. Its where the downstream upper Scandi ridge builds, if it builds. ECM pushes it into Russia, allowing height rises in the Atlantic, GFS nearer Scandi so usurping the Atlantic Ridge. GEM and UKMO can't make their mind up and explore the middle ground.

 

Until that is resolved anything in FI is just for interest sake.

 

 

I agree but I think it may start even earlier than that because the models are having all sorts of trouble modelling our trough at around T78 and the knock on effects of that are quite large. The GEM didn't bother pushing it South into Europe at all yesterday and the UKMO is quite shallow and initially more NW/SE than N/S aligned and deeper as with GFS.

If you look through GFS ensembles you will see a huge array of options re this trough depth and alignment. 

 

I have no idea which is likely correct but I'm finding it all quite fascinating in a weather geek type way. 

Edited January 1, 2014 by Mucka

[Froze were the Days]

Woeful GFS 12z run - only 1 thing dictating that and that's the PV up near Greenland, just low after low after low streaming off the eastern seaboard - very tedious watching.

Edited January 1, 2014 by Froze were the Days

[MR EXTREMES]

_{if im honest id like to say the gfs looks good up until 144 beyond that it all looks wrong ukmo is not good for ridge anywhere apart from azores into Europe.}

_{gem no good either poor charts but the thing that stands out the most is the incredible amount of rain and wind and if the ukmo is correct then right through the run its wind and rain.}

[lassie23]

Here we are in the premier inn in rainy Enfield, well the 12z is pretty much as I expected anyone what a small bet that the ECM will back off from its 0z run. No sense worrying about the strat warning projection as that will chop and change as with all model projections.

Yes the models are bouncing around like crazy and mild weather wins then a block appears, then the mild weather wins out again. The stratosphere models are also constantly changing. My guess is that the models are suffering and cannot get a grip on the present atmospheric chaos. Poor models.

[IDO]

When you look at the long wave pattern for 8th Jan, GFS and ECM are very similar.

 

Yes, Siberian PV

Yes, Canadian PV

Yes, Alaskan Ridge

Yes, Polar high

Yes, Iberian(ish) trough.

 

The only differences are, GFS says no to the Atlantic Ridge and yes to an upper Scandi ridge, and vice versa for ECM:

 

Means GFS:  ECM:

 

One of the models will be badly wrong.