Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[That ECM]

Cmon where is everyone!!models are looking much better cold wise this morning!!gfs has definitely moved over to the ecm regarding the low over the usa and all the models have got more amplification and cold potential!!gfs and ukmo looking better than over the past few days!!

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/3252/ECH1-240_ano6.GIFLow pressure where there was high pressure. How has GFS moved to ECM. Looking at t 144 on the big three and the theme is similar. Not happy about it but it is what it is.http://images.meteociel.fr/im/3841/UN144-21_scn0.GIFhttp://images.meteociel.fr/im/1484/ECH1-144_wta7.GIFhttp://images.meteociel.fr/im/3772/gfsnh-0-144_lhr8.png Edited January 2, 2014 by That ECM

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM at T144

GFS for the same time

Example GFS run from yesterday, say the 12z

 

I don't know where the whole ECM has moved to the GFS point has come from. GFS has increased amplification upstream, the ECM develops a wedge of heights over Greenland as opposed to a straight Atlantic ridge, this results in the ridge collapsing as energy over Western Greenland pushes south east underneath the wedge. Unfortunately the wedge gets absorbed by the Arctic high which means we can't get the forcing required to push the jet and low ressure far enough south to bring wintry weather. But the ECM T144 chart is certainly of interest.

[shedhead]

Agree with CS in so much as the whole ECM has not shifted towards GFS, there have been changes on both. However, post T+192hrs ECM has not unsurprisingly dropped the idea of HP over or close to the UK, with the now horribly familiar pattern of Euro High, Atlantic Low and Baffin PV again very much in evidence on both the big two at that timescale.

 

 

Edited January 2, 2014 by shedhead

[bluearmy]

Liking the trend of the ops this morning. Big bubbles of high heights our side of the pole. Yummy. Of course you could just at the runs post day 6 and assume it will be just like that (by the way, it never is)

[That ECM]

ECM at T144

GFS for the same time

Example GFS run from yesterday, say the 12z

I don't know where the whole ECM has moved to the GFS point has come from. GFS has increased amplification upstream, the ECM develops a wedge of heights over Greenland as opposed to a straight Atlantic ridge, this results in the ridge collapsing as energy over Western Greenland pushes south east underneath the wedge. Unfortunately the wedge gets absorbed by the Arctic high which means we can't get the forcing required to push the jet and low ressure far enough south to bring wintry weather. But the ECM T144 chart is certainly of interest.

The point ECM to GFS or GFS to ECM point is around the no half way house point talked about by many on the previous pages. Yes the GFS is a little more amplified but ECM had the pressure building to our north or over us. This is not the case this morning. It could change of course. The net result is that we are looking left for our weather not right.

Hope this makes sense, trying to learn all the time. Happy for people to disagree, I am not precious about such matters as Long as people are respectful as most are on here.

Edited January 2, 2014 by That ECM

[Captain Shortwave]

The point ECM to GFS or GFS to ECM point is around the no half way house point talked about by many on the previous pages. Yes the GFS is a little more amplified but ECM had the pressure building to our north or over us. This is not the case this morning. It could change of course. The net result is that we are looking left for our weather not right.Hope this makes sense, trying to learn all the time. Happy for people to disagree, I am not precious about such matters as Long as people are respectful as most are on here.

No problems there, will have to wait and see about the ECM because when the wedge of heights appears over Greenland then the Atlantic ridge is toast because of the energy splitting NE/SE by that wedge. Any changes to the position of that weak ridge will greatly alter the position of the jet and hence where any cold/mild boundary sets up.

Of course there is the issue of the ridge phasing with the Arctic high just north of Russia, of course at the timeframe involved that might not happen.

Lets just say that the ECM has thrown a spanner in the works this morning which gives another option going forward in this confusing period of model watching.

[Summer Sun]

ECM not looking so good this morning for a decent dry spell UK wide though the south could see the best of any drier and brighter spells with the Center of the low NW of Scotland

 

 

The GFS ensemble looks better for a time later next week with high pressure close to the south giving the prospect of some longer dry spells than of late

 

 

I still think a brief drier settled spell is possible later next week especially for the south before a return to unsettled weather, though not as bad as late

Edited January 2, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

winter is coming

[Frosty.]

Ecm 00z doesn't look very mild does it..

[nick sussex]

If you were a PA this morning you'd issue a press release saying " it's a fluid situation"!

Overall the models have reached a consensus upstream at last! however the troughing near the UK is still a sticking point, phasing again throws a spanner in the works , indeed the reason for the change in trend across the ECM is that we saw that new curveball thrown in with more high pressure to the, its now a race between that and the PV desperate to throw energy eastwards.

For newbies an early morning paintjob to show the route to cold!

Red arrows show what you'd need to see for that, previously the ECM had little pressure rise to the ne with this in the mix now this adds forcing on that energy near the UK, the PV to the west needs to send some energy south and what remains of the UK troughing needs to go se.

If that low near the UK heads se you'll see more trough disruption to the west with a shearing of energy away from the PV.

Small margins can make a big difference going forward, in terms of the ECM versus GFS I'd stress again putting aside the troughing over the UK which was always troublesome the GFS has had a big fail here, regardless of what happens post T144hrs.

The model started off with no low over the eastern USA, has been flat for days and we've seen over the last few runs it increase the amplitude.

Edited January 2, 2014 by nick sussex

[West is Best]

And so it goes on. A relentless Atlantic juggernaut. 

 

Looking on the bright side, this winter is saving on heating bills. That's about it. Batten down the hatches.

[Frosty.]

You know what, there is growing support from the GEFS 00z for a cold anticyclonic spell towards mid month, high pressure to the east / southeast as the 0z op run shows with a cold SEly continental flow and widespread frosts. You can see hints of the increasing anticyclonic signal from the GEFS 00z mean @ T+192 hours, high pressure ridging into the southeast but it still has a way to go because there are still plenty of unsettled solutions in there too..but hints of a colder and more settled spell are there for sure.

[Gibby]

Good morning everyone. Here is today's review of the 12 midnight outputs from the NWP for today Thursday January 2nd 2014.

 

All models continue to show the UK weather driven by a strong Jet flow across the Atlantic towards the Southern UK. Within this flow large depressions are shown to move up towards NW Britain with strong to gale SW winds and periods of rain running through on active troughs followed by periods of sunshine and squally showers. This process occurs through tonight and tomorrow and again on Sunday and Monday with just brief drier interludes in between principally today and again later on Saturday. Early next week then shows a large Low close to NW Britain filling steadily but maintaining rather showery conditions across the UK but with decreasing winds and temperatures a little lower, especially by night in the more sheltered East.

 

GFS then shows the midweek period with a continuing SW feed under rising pressure and further showers before a longer spell of rain associated with new troughs pushes East across the UK late in the week. This is followed by drier weather moving across from the West under a brief anticyclone close to SE England for a time next weekend. The pattern remains changeable however and it isn't long before further Atlantic fronts and Low pressure threaten the dry period with further rain at least for a time late in the run.

 

The GFS Ensembles maintain next to no chance of major cold over UK shores within the two week spell keeping temperatures very close to average with rain at times throughout the run though amounts may well reduce from the amounts experienced of late, at least for a time.

 

UKMO today shows filling Low pressure up to the NW later next week with SW winds decreasing and a broad trough just to the West. As a result further sunshine and showery type weather looks likely in average temperatures or a little above and with some Eastern areas becoming largely dry.

 

GEM keeps very unsettled weather going throughout it's later stages as further Low pressure forms to the SW and later West with rain and showers continuing for all areas at times with temperatures close to average.

 

NAVGEM shows gently rising pressure through next week but doesn't eradicate the risk of rain at times anywhere although the North will see the majority of it later next week as pressure rises enough over the South to give at least some dry and bright weather at times. Temperatures would stay close to average but slight ground frost at night could be possible in the South under light winds and clearing night time skies.

 

ECM without the earlier support of it's ensembles has dropped it's High pressure phase later next week as it now shows a continuation of Low pressure being fed in off the Atlantic from the West to maintain frequent areas of rain and showers across all areas in strong winds at times and fairly standard and average January temperatures.

 

The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart shows a bias of pressure being High to the South and Low to the North-West near Iceland. The resultant Westerly flow indicates the weather is likely to remain somewhat unsettled and probably rather mild in the South with closer proximity to higher pressure to the South than recently.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

 

The GFS Jet Forecast continues to blow strongly East over the Atlantic close to Southern Britain before it shows less clear signals later but with a bias to maintain a course similar to currently but less strong than of late particularly at the European end.

 

IN Summary today there seems little to indicate anything other than a continuation of the Atlantic based weather pattern. It looks certain that after the early week storm that some lessening in the depth of unsettledness and strength of depressions flowing in from the West will lead to less gales and heavy rain but will nevertheless keep things generally changeable with some rain at times. With High pressure looking possible to creep in close to the South at times the feed of air from the West or SW could become rather mild at times in the South later. There remains little concrete evidence in this morning's output of any risk of severe cold, ice or snow anywhere in the UK anytime soon.

[weather eater]

Certainly changes a foot so I expect to see various options offered in the coming days for post days 9-12, having said that, there is no doubt that this morning’s ECM is more zonal in the 168hrs plus range than its last two runs. The GFS on the other hand is the opposite post 240hrs, unfortunately it just seems to want to reset back to where we were before the zonal express got underway.

Edited January 2, 2014 by phil nw.
Removed personal comments

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Another day another disappointing set of models IMO.

Whilst we do see a -AO developing on ECM in particular the NAO remains stubbornly positive in the main-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.html

At 168 we have potential as the high pressure ridges down from the Arctic...

But by 192 we have-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.html

Yet again we see the familiiar sight of a big Euro high defelcting the jet northwards and we end up with this-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html 

Not a pleasant sight at all!

GFS offers a few frosts as we head towards mid month.

In short,after the awful December we are moving towards mid month with little or zero sign of snow for the vast majority.

Can someone nuke that Euro high please!!

[mulzy]

All models suggest a poor medium term outlook as far as cold is concerned.

 

The PV is ruling the roost in conjuction with rising heights over Europe.

 

 

[Polar Maritime]

It has been and will be a long process during this pattern change, we can see the models still struggling with how things will unfold, and the change is yet to start happening in the real world, but it's there and slowly getting into the reliable with a much cooler settled Zonal flow to start the proceedings. All the background signals are there, let's get the cold here first, the snow will come soon after.

Edited January 2, 2014 by phil nw.

[phil nw.]

Another wet and windy few days to come by the looks of it as more frontal systems swing in from the Atlantic.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014010200/UN60-21.GIF?02-06

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014010200/UN96-21.GIF?02-06

 

There seems no real sign of an end to this with any ridging upstream quickly flattening out as it heads towards us.

The one chink of light is the signal to build pressure from the south later next week as our Atlantic trough weakens for a while.

This may dry things out especially over the southern UK- at least temporarily.

 

The C.England ens graph shows a pretty tight cluster with no real cold members and the average  near the norm.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2014010200/graphe3_1000_264_93___.gif

 

so again the main features in the short term are the wind and rain with an ongoing risk of flooding in some areas.

Edited January 2, 2014 by phil nw.

[phil nw.]

Recent personal comments and the reactions to them re another member have been removed.

These things are best left to PM's or even unsaid.

 

People have their own style and views when it comes to posting and that's not a problem as long as they are within forum guidelines.

 

Ok back to model discussions.

Edited January 2, 2014 by phil nw.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Another wet and windy few days to come by the looks of it as more frontal systems swing in from the Atlantic.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014010200/UN60-21.GIF?02-06

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014010200/UN96-21.GIF?02-06

 

There seems no real sign of an end to this with any ridging upstream quickly flattening out as it heads towards us.

The one chink of light is the signal to build pressure from the south later next week as our Atlantic trough weakens for a while.

This may dry things out especially over the southern UK- at least temporarily.

 

The C.England ens graph shows a pretty tight cluster with no real cold members and the average  near the norm.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2014010200/graphe3_1000_264_93___.gif

 

so again the main features in the short term are the wind and rain with an ongoing risk of flooding in some areas.

My thoughts exactly Phil.

The NAO has and continues to drive our weather as far as the eye can see.

I have been banging on about the euro high for what seems like weeks and weeks now.I had a bad feeling in early Dec when we began to see temps plummet across the Arctic in conjunction with a big High pressure anomoly way to the east across Ukraine.Its a god forsaken pattern and has proved very very durable in the past and so its proving again.I mentioned the other day how dry and mild most of mainland Europe has been thanks to this.

Until we see pressure falling across Europe any notion of cold uppers reaching our shores are a pipe dream,yes we may get some inversion cold as depicted by the latter stages of GFS0z but thats as good as it is going to get.

[Summer Sun]

The ECM ensemble continues to show a potential relaxation in the low pressure systems from next Thursday (it will be in UKMO's range from tomorrow) so hopefully we'll get some longer gaps from the rain for a time giving places a chance to dry out before anymore storms head our way

 

 

T240 see's -5 850's moving closer to western parts but temperatures shouldn't be too far away from average next week

 

 

Monday looks quite mild with the met office going for a high of 12c in London and 11c in Cardiff, 9c in Newcastle and 8c in Edinburgh though it will be windy with another deep low out west

 

Edited January 2, 2014 by Summer Sun

[weather eater]

It has been and will be a long process during this pattern change, we can see the models still struggling with how things will unfold, and the change is yet to start happening in the real world, but it's there and slowly getting into the reliable with a much cooler settled Zonal flow to start the proceedings. All the background signals are there, let's get the cold here first, the snow will come soon after.

And where is the cold going to come from, pattern change seems likely in my view post days 9-12 but not a profound one, at least that's where the background signals appear to pointing at the moment, I see very little signal for a change to significant cold followed by snow.

[Purga]

More of the same, as expected really, and not what many want to see or hear. Very zonal, unsettled and no sign of any significant cold wintry weather for a long time to come.

 

The GEFS show an average / mild picture in line with the above, there are some colder runs right at the end but nothing significant.

 

Best to be realistic and not expect much and hope things dry out a bit - cold is a long way off so best not fret.

 

If desperate for wintry weather then jump on a plane to Canada / USA, they've got bucket loads - LOL

[Summer Sun]

More of the same, as expected really, and not what many want to see or hear. Very zonal, unsettled and no sign of any significant cold wintry weather for a long time to come.

 

The GEFS show an average / mild picture in line with the above, there are some colder runs right at the end but nothing significant.

 

Best to be realistic and not expect much and hope things dry out a bit - cold is a long way off so best not fret.

 

If desperate for wintry weather then jump on a plane to Canada / USA, they've got bucket loads - LOL

 

Another update showing rainfall easing from later next week which is pleasing to see

[Ali1977]

This run looks better, WAA into Greenland looks stronger .