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Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted

Because a trough can undercut it if we can lower heights over Europe allowing it to ridge SW, from there  all sort of possibilities would open up and just because there is no slider on this single run doesn't mean that is what will verify. Unfortunately the same applies to the behaviour of the Arctic high.

Chicken and egg me thinks, we can't get a trough heading southeast because of the heights to our south and we need lower heights to our southeast so that a trough can drop in...
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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

GFS loses the plot in FI.....a mish mash of synoptic garbage.....says it all and perhaps suggests a pattern change isn't far away

 

Posted Image

 

Describes it perfectly Crew.

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

Posted Image

 

Hmm.

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted (edited)

A much better GFS already for cold fans... Arctic High force down Northerly winds...

 

 

Well actually South Westerly still. But it does show a deep FI weakening of the Atlantic. I found the ukmo T144 FI chart interesting although I'm sure about the transition from T120. Of course there's the normal deep FI cold plunge from the GFS to keep posters happy.

post-2404-0-82444200-1388680980_thumb.gi

Edited by The PIT
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Duane S. Veteran

Duane S.

Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
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Posted

Wasn't it back on mid December that people were banging on about a cold outlook from the start of the new year ? Erm where's that then as the way I see it nothing has changed and the zonal weather will continue for at least another two weeks. Nothing out to suggest any good news for cold lovers. Write this month off in my book. It's going to be all about mid feb onwards in my eyes.

 

Hmmm Mid-Feb, you obviously have access to some pretty privvy information with that bold statement. Perhaps you would care to explain why we can expect nothing cold-wise until Mid Feb? Preferably with some backup, i.e. charts / teleconnections / Composites etc. Until then I will just have to assume that like so many on here, it is just a knee-jerk, glass-half-empty 'gut feeling' based on nothing more than what has gone before and your frustration that the immediate 7-10 (ish) day day outlook does not herald an obvious and graphic pattern change for the better.

 

And no, very few were 'banging on' about a cold start to the new year...

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted (edited)

V Cold FI.

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

If skies were clear it would feel raw.

Edited by SN0WM4N
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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
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Posted

A couple of posts have been reported and will shortly be binned to their sniping and personal nature.........for those posters, I'd recommend studying GCSE English again so you can understand the phrase "Do not post off topic rubbish in this thread"

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

 so you can understand the phrase "Do not post off topic rubbish in this thread"

 

That's a bold statement there AJ....

 

 

*Runs for cover*

 

 

After a clueless GFS this evening, let's see whether the ECM can shed some light on the days 7 through 10. GEFS will be interesting tonight to see whether a cluster do get a NE'ly flow to us towards day 9-10.

Edited by CreweCold
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R.P. McMurphy Community Regular

R.P. McMurphy

Posted
  • Location: Manhattan, USA
  • Location: Manhattan, USA
Posted (edited)

I'm not buying this run after seeing it all, it's all very too strange and over-done. Would be great if it came off, and would tie into MetOffice long ranger, but the differences of 6 hours is ridiculous.

 

From:

 

Posted Image

 

To This:

 

Posted Image

 

 

From this:

 

Posted Image

 

To This:

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Something not right unless the GFS has picked up on something...

Edited by Glenn W
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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)

Chicken and egg me thinks, we can't get a trough heading southeast because of the heights to our south and we need lower heights to our southeast so that a trough can drop in...

 

You are assuming GFS is correct at 168 onwards.

If we get a cut off high to our North and slider pressure will drop to the South as the trough undercuts/slides. Everything is chicken and egg in MO to a certain degree because the air masses interact with each other, the skill is trying to decide what weight to give each competing element or at least explaining what these elements are and how they might develop.

Otherwise It is a case of wait and see how things develop. Yes high pressure to the South could be a spoiler and that has not been ignored in previous analysis of the slider scenario but the flat GFS is nowhere near set in stone and frankly there is not much support for it.

 

Here is UKMO 12z at 144h

 

Posted Image

 

As explained previous;y cut off heights have migrated toward Greenland with the Atlantic ridge joining up, also the Arctic high is nosing SW. Pressure is lower tot he South and the trough West of Greenland is disrupting.

I am repeating myself here though.

Edited by Mucka
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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted

I'm not buying this run after seeing it all, it's all very too strange and over-done. Would be great if it came off, and would tie into MetOffice long ranger, but the differences of 6 hours is ridiculous.

 

From:

 

Posted Image

 

To This:

 

Posted Image

 

I

 

From this:

 

Posted Image

 

To This:

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Something not right unless the GFS has picked up on something...

It looks wrong because the charts are from two different runs, the Milder ones are from the 06z, the colder are from the 12z Oppps ;)
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

I'm not buying this run after seeing it all, it's all very too strange and over-done. Would be great if it came off, and would tie into MetOffice long ranger, but the differences of 6 hours is ridiculous.

 

From:

 

Posted Image

 

To This:

 

Posted Image

 

 

From this:

 

Posted Image

 

To This:

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Something not right unless the GFS has picked up on something...

 

As I said, it appears though a new signal is being picked up on......and I doubt it's any form/offshoot of the zonal weather we've been experiencing..... *wink*

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Troubleatmill Community Regular

Troubleatmill

Posted
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, warm sunny summers,
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
Posted

Have to love the way GFS throws the Azores at us the moment we lower pressure to the South.

Just going to say the same thing lol!, good to see the back of the euro high all the same. Opens up different ideas :)
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Nick L Maestro

Nick L

Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
Posted

It looks wrong because the charts are from two different runs, the Milder ones are from the 06z, the colder are from the 12z Oppps Posted Image

 

That was the point of the post, pointing out the wild swings from run to run.

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shedhead Rising Star

shedhead

Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER
Posted (edited)

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014010212/UN144-21.GIF?02-17

 

 

pretty good UKMO tonight !!

 

GFS party pooper as usual

 

s

Any idea what the latest verif stats at T+144hrs are Steve, or anyone? From memory wasn't UKMO one of the worst at that range recently?

Edited by shedhead
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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

GEM close but no cigar. 

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted (edited)

That was the point of the post, pointing out the wild swings from run to run.

That was the point of the post, pointing out the wild swings from run to run.

Really. Well not very clearly then. Mentioned differences of 6 hours, not between runs and lets be frank we would need a dedicated topic if we highlighted everytime the differences between runs of gfs 384 charts. Shall we leave it like that. Edited by TSNWK
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SomeLikeItHot Enthusiast

SomeLikeItHot

Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
Posted

Any idea what the latest verif stats at T+144hrs are Steve, or anyone? From memory wasn't UKMO one of the worst at that range recently?

2nd best after the ECM, according to here

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Any idea what the latest verif stats at T+144hrs are Steve, or anyone? From memory wasn't UKMO one of the worst at that range recently?

Here you go. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_acz6.html

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

GEM close but no cigar. 

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Fine margins of error there.....the sort of margin of error the GEM may have come day 7 or 8??

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted

UKMO and GEM want to take the ECMs route of a wedge of heights north of the UK, whether this can deliver cold to the UK is the next question.

Give the GFS a couple more attempts, it's not that far off the others with that wedge, just pushes the lot over Scandi before trying to disrupt.

Expect, joy, pain, misery, excitement from the model output as the jet gets corrected north and south, bring snow potential to some and leaving others wet. Probably should get some prozac ready Posted Image

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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
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Posted

the biggest plus as I think have punted up is the allignment of the Russian high to be facing directly at the UK-

 

The GEM at 174 has the cold air just to the East- then if you look at 240 the atlantic profile is perfect to move it west with a splitting low scenario-

 

I dont think anyone should be pessimistic tonight-

 

Anyone think the GFS hasnt changed to the Euro solution in the last day?

 

12z today

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010212/gfsnh-0-132.png?12 DEEP low over canada same as ECM

 

12z yesterday same time

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2014010112-0-168.png?12  Low in the atlantic -

 

open both to see how much has changed!S

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