Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[Ali1977]

Quite a few eastily solutions in the latest Ens...

[carinthian]

Thanks for that C....some crumbs I guess, but the 33% you quoted means crumbs pretty much sum things up imo.

Yes, the service provider have an award winning success rate. Rarely do we see above 40% over this range. Split 3 ways, either cold, warm or normal, 33% represents an average chance. 40% in this context is highly likely.

 c

[lassie23]

Quite a few eastily solutions in the latest Ens...

A strong scandi high and maybe a battle ground between east and west over the uk?

[Tim M]

Rather than the hunt for snow and cold, I wouldn't mind a hunt for some dry weather for more than just the odd few hours - like this morning - to give us a chance to dry out.

[Snowman.]

CFS gets there in the end.

 

[kev238]

In my opinion, there has been a lot of hunting for cold. Almost all the models have painted a mild, wet and windy picture, trending less unsettled with time .

It is going to take a massive shift somewhere for this to change

[Summer Sun]

The end finally looks to be in sight for the rain with all the ensembles now agreeing on something significantly drier developing from next Tuesday (9th on the London ensemble), the 850's don't look too far away from average so it shouldn't be all that cold either

 

[Summer Sun]

Latest NAO update remains unchanged with it staying around neutral during the first half of this month

 

 

The latest AO update is now signaling a move to positive then down to neutral after starting negative

 

[Mucka]

Some clarity at last!

 

We are now starting to see some broad consensus among the models through to day 5/6 with the Atlantic ridge the ECM has been modelling now appearing in the other models but also witht he heights to the NE the GFS has been modelling also a feature though much weaker than GFS originally modelled. The worse performing model over the last 24/48 hours for the mid term has been the UKMO IMO which had neither but now goes for both.

GFS still has the strongest height rises to the NE with ECM the weakest.

Either way these heights are modelled to move into Greenland which will then aid any Atlantic ridge in slowing down and disrupting the next low SE and this is where an opportunity may appear for for some colder Arctic air to get into the mix - this the slider scenario I talked about way back for second week of Jan and again more recently with weak high to the North and low pressure sliding NW/SE across the UK. The big fly in the ointment is the Euro high and to a lesser extent the Azores high ridging in preventing low pressure digging South thus we can't get the pattern far enough South to drag in the cold uppers and the pattern flattens.

 

Here is a timeline of those events for anyone new to model watching using ECM/GFS/UKMO 00z output for comparisons .

 

96h (heights build to the NE) up through Scandinavia and toward Greenland.

 

 

120h (Atlantic ridge builds and heights to NE move into Greenland) the cut off heights moving into Greenland were not modelled UKMO or GFS 00z run but they have been previously on GFS and it is a strong signal within the ensembles and this is the timeframe to look for it.

 

 

144h (Atlantic ridge pushes toward Greenland) Now we are starting to see more divergence in the models and things get complicated with competing forces but what we want to see is a strong Atlantic ridge (the further West and North into Greenland the better) join up with any heights that have moved into Greenland. Also we would want to see pressure falling to the S/SE of the UK rather than rising for reasons explained earlier. The low pressure to the West of Greenland we need to disrupt sending energy S/SE as it comes up against the ridge and ideally get a weak cut off high form to our North (from Atlantic ridge) as the disrupting trough slices through.

 

 

168h UKMO is swapped out for GEM here (We see the trough disrupt S/SE off the West of Greenland - GFS is the most progressive as one would expect and has least disruption sending energy more toward the West than the South while conversely GEM is the slowest and has the greatest disruption. ECM/GEM/GFS

 

 

Just to point out that the low aligned NW/SE over the UK on ECM is from the disrupting trough while the low aligned SW/NE on GEM is still the existing trough (in other words it is slower than ECM not more progressive as one might think at first glance)

 

192h (possible sliders?) If everything went our way this is the sort pf time period we would hope to see energy sliding NW/SE across the country into Europe but unfortunately, although we are getting the energy "sliding" on ECM it isn't digging into Europe, instead being deflected East by the stubborn Euro high. ECM is very close to setting up a snowy pattern for the N at least here. GEM has the pattern backed West which could be very good if we could draw in enough cold air from the NE and it has more potential going forward for blocking. GFS has pretty much given up the ghost by now and has all the energy pretty much ploughing East.

 

 

216h ECM gives up the ghost GEM sets up the sliders.

 

 

Plenty there for us to get our teeth into from quite early in the output so at least from a pure enthusiasts point of view plenty to keep us interested even if that cold patter setting up still seems as elusive as ever. If you're optimistic you will be looking for a stronger Atlantic ridge and more trough disruption with a stronger cut off high to our N/NE with energy "sliding" NW/SE across the UK with snow for those to the North and East of where it sets up and from there more prominent blocking to build. If you're pessimistic you will be seeing the pattern flattening back out with another zonal spell setting up and the fate of the Winter resting on the whims of any projected strat warming.

[R.P. McMurphy]

The end finally looks to be in sight for the rain with all the ensembles now agreeing on something significantly drier developing from next Tuesday (9th on the London ensemble), the 850's don't look too far away from average so it shouldn't be all that cold either

 

 

Hi Gav,

 

Regarding both your posts, this would seem to tie in well with the latest Metoffice 16 day forecast so makes sense. Hopefully an end to this barrage of Atlantic dominated storms before some settled weather comes in.

 

I think anyone searching for cold pre-15th January to happen is going to be very dissappointed. The latest NAO and Ens as posted sum it up quite nicely.

 

At the moment we are stuck in the same loop as indicated;

 

3rd January - Atlantic, Wet & Windy

 

 

Monday 6th January - Wet & Windy

 

 

Saturday 11th - Attack Thwarted, remaining average

 

 

Thursday 16th January - Now past the middle of the month, subtle signs showing, but still mild, wet & windy

 

 

We are now at Saturday 18th January, and for the UK it remains much of the same, but a deep pool of cold spreads over Europe as the Atlantic barrage is finally held back, & gorwing confidence of a potential Scandi High, so signs of something a little positive if it's cold you are after.

 

 

Jet Stream pushed way south:

 

 

So with everything summed up from the GFS output, its much of the same for most areas. Feeling chilly, Wet & Windy, with Average or Above Average temperatures.

 

Obviously all of this is subject to change, but taken at face value, IMHO there is no hope of anything pre-20th January in terms of cold & snow I feel.

[Frosty.]

Its all looking good for an increase in frequency of cold incursions by mid month and even more wintry 2nd half of January, thanks met office for making my day. There are lots of positives to take from the various models with those gem charts I posted earlier plus a growing number of the gefs perturbations, mogreps must be showing something significantly wintry later in the month :-)

Edited January 2, 2014 by Frosty.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Its all looking good for an increase in frequency of cold incursions by mid month and even more wintry 2nd half of January, thanks met office for making my day. There are lots of positives to take from the various models with those gem charts I posted earlier plus a growing number of the gefs ensembles, mogreps must be showing something significantly wintry later in the month :-)

 

Hi Karl,

 

Very much agree with that assessment for later on (towards end of month) for a more seasonal period to take effect. It's been/Will be a long wait, but it should get there, question is... Will it be worth it!??!

Edited January 2, 2014 by Glenn W

[shedhead]

Its all looking good for an increase in frequency of cold incursions by mid month and even more wintry 2nd half of January, thanks met office for making my day. There are lots of positives to take from the various models with those gem charts I posted earlier plus a growing number of the gefs perturbations, mogreps must be showing something significantly wintry later in the month :-)

What have they said to make your day?

[shaky]

Its all looking good for an increase in frequency of cold incursions by mid month and even more wintry 2nd half of January, thanks met office for making my day. There are lots of positives to take from the various models with those gem charts I posted earlier plus a growing number of the gefs perturbations, mogreps must be showing something significantly wintry later in the month :-)

frosty you smash it man!!!funny dude!!I love your optimistic posts and I think we need that in here more often than not, even though half the time the stuff you show does not come off!!

[R.P. McMurphy]

What have they said to make your day?

 

I think Karl would be referring to: (Which tie in nicely to current Ens, charts & LRF's)

 

 

Some signals are emerging suggesting that the weather may undergo a change later this month allowing colder conditions to then become increasingly likely. This would increase the risk of some wintry conditions developing during the second half of January.

Edited January 2, 2014 by Glenn W

[shedhead]

Agh right, I thought he may have had access to some different info from MO.  Wrong thread for discussing their output, but I think it wise to wait for their latest update based on the next ECM32.

[Ali1977]

When is the next EC32 due?

[Summer Sun]

When is the next EC32 due?

 

Overnight tonight

Edited January 2, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

frosty you smash it man!!!funny dude!!I love your optimistic posts and I think we need that in here more often than not, even though half the time the stuff you show does not come off!!

Thanks, I do my best. :- )

[The Post-modern Winter]

Agh right, I thought he may have had access to some different info from MO.  Wrong thread for discussing their output, but I think it wise to wait for their latest update based on the next ECM32.

Why are we waiting for their ECM32 update now? This is an issue which constantly arises with certain posters. When cold is suggested via any avenue, be it any various models or the MO, we must always wait for some other juncture. Then once this has passed, we must wait for something else. The Met Offices updates change daily so they are clearly receiving regularly updated information and making judgements based on it - today's updates seems to signify an increased confidence and wider scope (no longer just the North) for wintery weather towards the end of the month.

 

Additionally, if I remember correctly, the last ECM32 was deemed poor for any cold throughout the next month yet the Met Office are continuing with the theme of increasingly colder weather towards the months end. So indeed we can wait for their next update, but I don't believe it wise to do so. It could show a decrease in the cold signal, a period to rival 1947 and if it does, the Met Office may take a different view to it as they seem to have done this month.

 

Why can we not just accept what the premier weather organisation the world are saying at this moment and be positive about it without caveats from the same people over and over again. 

[shedhead]

Why are we waiting for their ECM32 update now? This is an issue which constantly arises with certain posters. When cold is suggested via any avenue, be it any various models or the MO, we must always wait for some other juncture. Then once this has passed, we must wait for something else. The Met Offices updates change daily so they are clearly receiving regularly updated information and making judgements based on it - today's updates seems to signify an increased confidence and wider scope (no longer just the North) for wintery weather towards the end of the month.

 

Additionally, if I remember correctly, the last ECM32 was deemed poor for any cold throughout the next month yet the Met Office are continuing with the theme of increasingly colder weather towards the months end. So indeed we can wait for their next update, but I don't believe it wise to do so. It could show a decrease in the cold signal, a period to rival 1947 and if it does, the Met Office may take a different view to it as they seem to have done this month.

 

Why can we not just accept what the premier weather organisation the world are saying at this moment and be positive about it without caveats from the same people over and over again. 

The point is the latest MO 16-30 day update wording has not changed and it won't until the latest ECM32 is available. Therefore it seems prudent to wait for this to be analysed and it's content possibly included, before assuming it will continue along the same path.  

 

Moreover if you want to talk about what they are actually saying, it might be worth reading what they are actually saying, because perhaps not unsurprisingly it is absolutely loaded with if's, but's and maybe's. Therefore nothing can or should be taken for granted imo, either regarding their next update or a return to colder weather from mid month.  Still lots of water to flow under the bridge yet, but that said the signs are rather more positive than they have been for some considerable time.

Edited January 2, 2014 by shedhead

[Dunlop Dave]

Wasn't it back on mid December that people were banging on about a cold outlook from the start of the new year ? Erm where's that then as the way I see it nothing has changed and the zonal weather will continue for at least another two weeks. Nothing out to suggest any good news for cold lovers. Write this month off in my book. It's going to be all about mid feb onwards in my eyes.

[Biggin]

How often does the EC32 update?? See this is where I get confused, day 32 what is the point of going out that far if the next day you (Meto)  are gonna change what you predicted for the same day ( now day 31)  yesterday. Or is it more of a trend monitor / predictor than a forecast?? Hope you understand what I am getting at

[Summer Sun]

How often does the EC32 update?? See this is where I get confused, day 32 what is the point of going out that far if the next day you (Meto)  are gonna change what you predicted for the same day ( now day 31)  yesterday. Or is it more of a trend monitor / predictor than a forecast?? Hope you understand what I am getting at

 

Updates every Tuesday and Friday

[R.P. McMurphy]

The point is the latest MO 16-30 day update wording has not changed and it won't until the latest ECM32 is available. Therefore it seems prudent to wait for this to be analysed and it's content possibly included, before assuming it will continue along the same path.  

 

Moreover if you want to talk about what they are actually saying, it might be worth reading what they are actually saying, because perhaps not unsurprisingly it is absolutely loaded with if's, but's and maybe's. Therefore nothing can or should be taken for granted imo, either regarding their next update or a return to colder weather from mid month.  Still lots of water to flow under the bridge yet, but that said the signs are rather more positive than they have been for some considerable time.

 

Not sure that's true Shedhead. The MetOffice have been singing from the same hymm sheet for some considerable time now. These are all long range forecasts. Could go earlier, but these start from 26th December.

 

 

Some signs are also emerging suggesting temperatures being less mild in general terms than the last couple of weeks and perhaps even slightly below average.

 

Updated: 1142 on Thu 26 Dec 2013

 

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

 

 

Some signs are also emerging suggesting temperatures being less mild in general terms than the last couple of weeks and perhaps even slightly below average.

Updated: 1145 on Fri 27 Dec 2013

 

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

 

 

Some signs are also emerging suggesting temperatures being less mild in general terms than the last couple of weeks, and perhaps even significantly colder late in the month.

Updated: 1139 on Sat 28 Dec 2013

 

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

 

 

Some signs are also emerging suggesting temperatures being less mild in general terms than the last couple of weeks, and perhaps even significantly colder late in the month.

Updated: 1255 on Sun 29 Dec 2013

 

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

 

 

Some signs are also emerging to suggest temperatures being less mild in general terms than during the first half of January, with the possibility of colder weather later in the month.

 

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

 

 

This would mean that while spells of dull, wet and windy weather would continue there will be an increased risk of wintry conditions during the second half of the month, particularly in northern parts of the UK.

Updated: 1227 on Tue 31 Dec 2013

 

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

 

 

This would increase the risk of some wintry conditions developing during the second half of January, although mainly across the northern parts of the UK. This also indicates the potential for more settled conditions, bringing less in the way of windy and wet weather by the end of the month.

 

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

 

 

allowing colder conditions to then become increasingly likely. This would increase the risk of some wintry conditions developing during the second half of January. A change to a colder weather type would also increase the potential for more settled conditions leaving a lower risk of wet and windy spells than has recently been the case.

Updated: 1202 on Thu 2 Jan 2014

 

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

 

I think it's fair to say your advice of waiting until another update to be sure isn't really valid in this case due to the above & the MetOffice have been smelling something in the air for some considerable time in regards to change.

 

I am also not advocating ignore updates, as that would be foolish, more of a point to prove we don't have to wait until the next update.

 

The Met Office have a lot more data than we do available, they are also more knowledgeable, but from what we have available, it ties in nicely with latest GFS and a potential Scandi High allowing for colder air and wintry showers.

 

Edited January 2, 2014 by Glenn W