Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[Purga]

Oh  no here comes the inevitable zonal express after 168hrs

 

 

Yep - you guessed it - wet & windy

 

 

And mild.

Edited January 2, 2014 by Purga

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014010212/JN192-21.GIF?02-12

 

JMA 192 looks like a huge undercutter about to slide across from west of Ireland-

 

huge cold pool

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014010212/JN192-7.GIF?02-12

 

ECm further East

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010212/ECH1-192.GIF?02-0

 

S

[Mucka]

JMA 12z. It may very well be we need two bites at the cherry before being able to sink the bothersome Euro high enough to get some colder air. 

 

Edited January 2, 2014 by Mucka

[Joe Levy]

Oh  no here comes the inevitable zonal express after 168hrs

 

 

Yep - you guessed it - wet & windy

 

 

And mild.

There is nothing mild about that chart - that is cool, wet and windy. We often get this sort of weather in Winter, at least in my memory

[nick sussex]

So close but no cigar, need the PV a bit further west and the high to the north further sw, could go either way, very small margin for error could dictate more frustration or some colder weather.

[bluearmy]

ecm op consistent and a good pattern but just too far north. if we can avoid the little depression out west at day 9 then we may see the jet tilted more nw/se by the last frame

[chris55]

Well seeing as winter so far has been awful, and beyond 144/168 is always open to changes, Id say the ECM 168 is a pretty dam good chart with potential!!

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Oh well the polar doughnut wins this round.

Wouldn't need to much tweaking to deliver for the UK

Edited January 2, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Mucka]

Oh well the polar doughnut wins this round.

Wouldn't need to much tweaking to deliver for the UK

 

Well if we are talking UK it looks like it could of already delivered for parts of the North

 

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

yet again the positive heights across Europe are deflecting the jet north.

Until we see the back of the Euro high....

[shotski]

ECM 12z in line with the thoughts of Carinthian as regards to lower heights to the sw of

the UK being the key to delivering a more blocked pattern.

 

 

[AWD]

Is it me or am I the only one modestly happy with tonight's charts from a cold perspective?

I'm not expecting any cold weather on our shores within the next 10/14 days or so, so the fact some operational and even ensemble products aren't showing such a scenario doesn't really bother me for now.

It's the fact we have action up above in both the stratosphere and possibly into the troposphere that interests me more at this stage.

We can see this starting to affect the PV towards mid month, hence the array of outcomes we currently see within the NWP. Whether or not a particular model brings cold to our shores or not is irrelevant at this stage. It's the fact they all show a closer route to cold compared to our current pattern that pleases me a little.

No facts or figures for this, but Arctic highs aren't the easiest thing to model for the NWP so trying to pin down detail on a scenario that has such fine margins of error at a timeframe such as this is pointless IMO.

It's looking likely that it's going to be a 2nd half or possibly final 3rd jobbie this winter but hey ho, rather that than nothing at all.

I'm seeing an increasingly likelihood (albeit slow process) of a southerly tracking Jet and a weaker but not shredded PV in the longer term, and for now, along with the current long range Met Office forecast, will do me just fine.

[cooling climate]

   but not in the 11/15 day timeframe which is when events in thes strat are likely to be happening (if they verify). we then have to wait at least a few days for downwelling, even with a quick response.

I can not see anything happening in the next 10/14 day timeframe apart from a slow cool down

perhaps. Beyond the 17/18 of the month then yes we could well be in business.

[Troubleatmill]

Looking at Northern hem at 216 on ecm, looking at chance of arctic high ridging down into greenland with the jet looking to take a more SE track

Edited January 2, 2014 by Arron B

[Mucka]

yet again the positive heights across Europe are deflecting the jet north.

Until we see the back of the Euro high....

 

Yup it's a pain but slowly, slowly...

 

[Snowman.]

If only the ECM continued would've liked to have seen if those Atlantic heights linked up.

 

[phil nw.]

Just to bring us back to the more immediate future.

Some recent images from the NMM model-courtesy fo NW Extra.shows the troublesome amounts of rain and wind expected over the next 3 days

 

We can see particularly on Sunday a very active frontal system coming through with the differences in the 850hPa temps. as much as 8C either side of the boundary.

A strong jet streak of 170mph underlining the energy wrapped up in this pattern.

 

Note the tightness of the isobars indicating strong winds quite widely at times.

 

Understandably many warnings in force and making the news headlines this evening.

 

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Well if we are talking UK it looks like it could of already delivered for parts of the North

 

Shame the Arctic air is coming across thousands of miles of water before reaching us. At least it would be chilly and cold enough in the north for some wintry flavour. I think though we are all eyeing up the Siberian freight train if we can get low pressure sliding into the Med 

[Cheese Rice]

 

sat r.pngsat 850.png

 

 

T4P! 

 

Would of thought that would bring some snowfall on its western flank. 

Edited January 2, 2014 by Cheese Rice

[johnholmes]

Where do you mean - on top of Ben Nevis?

Most would see daytime temps in double digits which in midwinter is horribly mild in my book.

The occasional days it might sink to a frigid 7/8 C if you're lucky -

 

 

now come on, a quick check through out to 240h on the Extra gfs output shows possibly 4 days out of the 10 when maximum values are suggested in double figures in areas away from Cornwall, so your term is, as often is the case, a touch OTT. Why oh why can some of you not be factual from the computer runs instead of making your own spin on it?

Don't believe me Purga or anyone else, then simply look at the 12z outputs on the Extra part of this site or if not then the basic GFS run

[Mucka]

Shame the Arctic air is coming across thousands of miles of water before reaching us. At least it would be chilly and cold enough in the north for some wintry flavour. I think though we are all eyeing up the Siberian freight train if we can get low pressure sliding into the Med 

 

Yeah you're right of course. I was just trying to point out the output is going in the right direction GEM, JMA, ECM, UKMO and the North could benefit

[nick sussex]

Overall we don't quite manage the no phase and better trough disruption route so disappointing in that respect. There are a few positives, the elongation of the PV and the brutal cold moving away from the eastern USA together with the high in the Arctic.

 

The trend is better than we've seen for much of December,patience however is wearing thin especially for people who have had their Xmas ruined by the monsoon and strong winds.

 

Colder drier would be welcomed I'm sure by many people, or even cold and a bit snowy! because you're never going to end up with that much precip or winds, unfortunately its always the way in the UK, mild in the winter generally means this zonal garbage.

 

If there is to be some colder weather then the building blocks will either show up within T144hrs or not because essentially theres a very small margin between colder and more average wetter conditions.

 

If the high to the north ridges further sw and cuts off the chance of energy phasing with the UK troughing then its likely to turn colder, if it phases then wetter and more average.

Edited January 2, 2014 by nick sussex

[Joe Levy]

Where do you mean - on top of Ben Nevis?

Most would see daytime temps in double digits which in midwinter is horribly mild in my book.

The occasional days it might sink to a frigid 7/8 C if you're lucky -

Please give me evidence for these double digit daytime temperatures when there will be little sunshine to speak of between the wind and rain, and the uppers are little more than plus 2 and in some places around -2

Edited January 2, 2014 by Joe Levy

[SMU]

So then as it stands after a ropey ECM  I would plant the FI line @ 132 tonight.

At 132 the models diverge into varying degrees of blocking/ arctic highs-

 

Some solutions offer cold building- UKMO GEM, some offer milder air- ECM / GFS.

 

remember what I said yesterday about the wave amplitude- a bit more height at 144 from the ECM & its a whole different ballgame

S

[Troubleatmill]

Just wish greenland would up anchor and drift south 2000 miles, we would be another chicago , tiresome looking at these charts, with that cold over eastern US spitting out these vigourous dp's like a paintball machine gun

Edited January 2, 2014 by Arron B