Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[johnholmes]

steve do you think the models will show the atlantic undercut that arctic block tomorrow?or what are the chances of that happening?

 

not Steve but in my view slight if at all

 

Just seen the post from Steve at 50:50 I would suggest 30:70 but who knows?

Edited January 2, 2014 by johnholmes

[draztik]

So, we have a good idea of where the ext ecm ensembles take us, and looking at the Ensemble mean for the EC32 out to the end of January, there is very little change indeed. No suggestion of a scandi block, or Greenland high. In fact, it establishes a fairly westerly pattern throughout. With the mean trough, as usual, placed to our NW. I have no idea what the Met will make of this update, but the synoptics arent what youd call ideal. Cant see the temp anomaly as it hasnt updated, but cant imagine it shows deep cold based on the pattern shown.

[johnholmes]

Seriously cumon!! Not been rude Ian but honestly it's will not play out as been forecast and is always over played to cover backs! The recent forecasted severe floods with high tides hardly played out as forecasted up north. Let's see what happens tomorrow when it doesn't materialise.

 

not sure that what you say is true for the areas Met and Ian on here have highlighted?

[Mucka]

So, we have a good idea of where the ext ecm ensembles take us, and looking at the Ensemble mean for the EC32 out to the end of January, there is very little change indeed. No suggestion of a scandi block, or Greenland high. In fact, it establishes a fairly westerly pattern throughout. With the mean trough, as usual, placed to our NW. I have no idea what the Met will make of this update, but the synoptics arent what youd call ideal. Cant see the temp anomaly as it hasnt updated, but cant imagine it shows deep cold based on the pattern shown.

 

 

You can't glean anything from mean charts 1 month ahead but it would be nice if it was showing anomalous cold.

I'm surprised by the amount of scatter in the ECM ensembles though from the 10th. Hopefully the colder cluster wins out over the scattered mild variants and if it does that mean of around 5c will drop like a stone.

 

Edited January 2, 2014 by Mucka

[Frosty.]

This prolonged stormy soggy spell has felt like an extension to autumn and I feel sad for those hit by floods and storm damage. I think we are now at the tail end of this disruptive weather and beyond early next week it looks like moderating but remaining unsettled for most of the uk, perhaps the southeast will see slightly higher pressure for a time but I expect any subsequent weather warnings will be for snow and ice.

[jvenge]

POSSIBLE MAJOR UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT!!!

 

Okay a bit theatrical but everyone knows what I'm like by now!

 

For those who read my earlier NOAA update they had not used either the GFS 12hrs or NAM 12hrs because they were viewed as being too progressive and flat with the initial development of the low.

 

The latest NAM has made a  shift in the depth of the low aswell as its track, it only goes upto 84hrs but below is the 12hrs to Monday 00hrs:

 

nam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

 

Followed by the 18hrs to the same time:

 

nam_namer_078_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

 

And the GFS 12hrs to the same time:

 

gfs_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

 

You can see the GFS is much further east and a lot shallower. Lets hope that the NAM is a good sign before the GFS 18hrs run comes out, hopefully that makes a similar shift.

 

We want the low to run as far inland as possible so certainly the latest NAM looks nice.

 

NOAA expected a track and deepening through the eastern Great Lakes so the NAM does support that.

 

As a FYI, a lot of the US forecasters have been whinging that the GFS puts things too far east,

[Team Jo]

There's a dedicated portion of the forum that is you one stop shop to discuss the Met O, warnings, media coverage, north vs south, my weather is worse than yours etc etc..

However this happens to be the Model thread, so if you would kindly stick to discussing the models, that would be splendid.

Thanks a million

[nick sussex]

Just caught up with the GFS 18hrs run, that was a relief to see that westwards correction, the PV held further west also good. How much more can we squeeze out of this?

 

The NAVGEM has also made big change, shame its so unreliable. Still we're dealing with a nerve shredding morning because you can see the big difference here if we don't see phasing of energies, just as we got to the big part of the output the GFS hit the lower resolution so it went pearshaped.

 

I think we need a further westwards correction with the PV and more sharpness to it, the ridge to the north needs to be further sw, are these things doable? I think it will be a hard slog still but at least we're hanging on by our finger tips!

 

Okay then more of my ramblings re the USA State forecasts, I'm not sure if this update would include the GFS 18hrs run info, they just say GFS but given their comments its probably comparing both the ECM and GFS 12hrs outputs, their comments re the GEFS would suggest they've been throwing out the wrong solutions and might be biased to the more easterly track:

 

So this from New York:

 

UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER WITH THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.VAST DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITHIN THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS.THESE DIFFERENCES ALSO ARE APPARENT WITHIN THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND MUCHOF ITS MEMBERS WITH THE LAST TWO RUNS. THE FORECAST CURRENTLY SIDESMORE WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH A SLOWER FRONTAL SPEED AND MOREWESTERN TRACK OF THE LOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY

Edited January 2, 2014 by nick sussex

[Bristawl Si]

I thought about saying "It's coming!" but i'm not going to, as it's a bit corny.

[fergieweather]

. I have no idea what the Met will make of this update, but the synoptics arent what youd call ideal. Cant see the temp anomaly as it hasnt updated, but cant imagine it shows deep cold based on the pattern shown.

Positive temp anomalies by end Jan/early Feb; SW flow.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Positive temp anomalies by end Jan/early Feb; SW flow.

Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo.

Thats NOT good news Ian,will the metoffice updates tomorrow reflect it?

[fergieweather]

Congrats, not only is this off topic, but this post is an early contender for the prestigious award of "Daftest Post of the Year 2014" award.....please keep on topic and/or think before posting...cheers

And moreover they are EA/FFC warnings, NOT Met Office or thus BBC Weather... and we aren't going to suggest we have some expertise in hydrology/Coastal flooding dynamics. That's the EA's gig. Now back to models (but this key point needed stressing on a weather forum)...

[fergieweather]

Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo.:(Thats NOT good news Ian,will the metoffice updates tomorrow reflect it?

Who knows. The 30d updates aren't the greatest priority and certainly not so between now and Monday. Personally (and I'm not alone in this thought) the updates would be better if only out to 7-10d. But hey-ho, we can merely reflect beyond that what the best tools indicate... be they eventually right or wrong.

[cooling climate]

For the last several runs now since yesterday mornings GFS 06z run that showed a big

upgrade in the stratosphere warming during January the strength of the warming has

been weakening run by run. I can only assume that the latest EC32 does not see a

major strat warming taking place.

The major warming shown yesterday would undoubtably have had a major impact on

our weather and the weather pattern around the northern hemisphere where as now

judging by what the stratosphere charts are showing from the latest 18z run, there

would probably be very little impact.

[TSNWK]

Positive temp anomalies by end Jan/early Feb; SW flow.

Many thanks for these snippets.. Got to be said that EC32 has been pretty much consistent and correct these past few weeks with its predictions.

[Panayiotis]

A much colder set for the 18z GEFS run for my location, starting around the 12th:

[fergieweather]

Many thanks for these snippets.. Got to be said that EC32 has been pretty much consistent and correct these past few weeks with its predictions.

it has indeed, in all fairness. A stubborness to relax the broadly westerly pattern with the low anomalies to NW a constant feature. A small minority of ENS members offer much colder prospect by end Jan (eg using Reading plume as representative), but they've remained the small minority for many runs now. You'd be forgiven for pondering if this winter will be noteworthy for it's lack of snow (I.e. as versus D Express prophecies), but with many days of Jan let alone Feb to run, nothing can be taken for granted. In the near-term, however, I think even cold fans will nonetheless sit agog at the astonishingly relentless Atlantic powertrain and the incredible catalogue of 'dartboard' charts it has produced lately and continues to do so. A really fascinating pattern and not least in terms of longevity.

[fergieweather]

V latest UKMO assessment for 10-15d period notes "some signal for increased perturbations in upper pattern..." but generally maintaining the mobile theme. So, in keeping with EC32 alongside other products.

[Costa Del Fal]

V latest UKMO assessment for 10-15d period notes "some signal for increased perturbations in upper pattern..." but generally maintaining the mobile theme. So, in keeping with EC32 alongside other products.

Hi Ian, apologies if this has already been mentioned, but is there still a risk of some wintriness on Saturday? A few other models such as the NASA GEOS5 for example seems to suggest something.

[Panayiotis]

^The EURO probably has the best signal for the white stuff but mainly for higher ground:

PS The little feature pops up at 48hrs so unknown what happens after Sat 18z:

Edited January 3, 2014 by Panayiotis

[georgiedre]

With the amount of storminess lately and the chopping and changing forecast from all including met office (ie saying southern and eastern parts would be dryier this week from the forecast 2 weeks ago) I think no one is certain of the future weather and believe cold weather will become a big feature at the end of January and during February! (going against Ian and met office Soz mate)..let's see! Btw I have never ever seen seen windy weather like the last. 2 weeks

[SLEETY]

With the amount of storminess lately and the chopping and changing forecast from all including met office (ie saying southern and eastern parts would be dryier this week from the forecast 2 weeks ago) I think no one is certain of the future weather and believe cold weather will become a big feature at the end of January and during February! (going against Ian and met office Soz mate)..let's see! Btw I have never ever seen seen windy weather like the last. 2 weeks

I wouldnt take much notice of these long range weather models.The met office may light to brag that they are useful,but in reality they are a waste of time beyond 6-10 days.It is still not possible to predict with any accuracy what the weather is going to be like beyond that timeframe I mentioned.

 

Yes it may get the occasional 30 day outlook fairly correct but taken over the long-term it fails miserably,unless anyone can provide stats to prove otherwise.

[Pixel]

Please can someone explain (with graphics) why the jet stream over us is projected to become weaker in the next few weeks at this time of year?

 

It's probably is a simple answer and laughable to the knowledgable but I'm intrigued. The jet stream projections beyond t144 seem to be more erratic than usual these last few weeks….

[Snowman.]

For the last several runs now since yesterday mornings GFS 06z run that showed a big

upgrade in the stratosphere warming during January the strength of the warming has

been weakening run by run. I can only assume that the latest EC32 does not see a

major strat warming taking place.

The major warming shown yesterday would undoubtably have had a major impact on

our weather and the weather pattern around the northern hemisphere where as now

judging by what the stratosphere charts are showing from the latest 18z run, there

would probably be very little impact.

How's its working is that short term gain-long term loss but there is variations.

 

18z has no warming in FI first for a long time but the GFS 12z was beginning to show some interesting signs.

 

But its only one run it will most likely be there again tomorrow but at the price of westerly winds with little blocking north.

[Panayiotis]

 

Please can someone explain (with graphics) why the jet stream over us is projected to become weaker in the next few weeks at this time of year?

 

It's probably is a simple answer and laughable to the knowledgable but I'm intrigued. The jet stream projections beyond t144 seem to be more erratic than usual these last few weeks….

 

http://www.weatherquestions.com/What_causes_the_jet_stream.htm

Edited January 3, 2014 by Panayiotis