Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[The Post-modern Winter]

Not sure that's true Shedhead. The MetOffice have been singing from the same hymm sheet for some considerable time now. These are all long range forecasts. Could go earlier, but these start from 26th December.

I think it's fair to say your advice of waiting until another update isn't really valid & the MetOffice smell something in the air.

The Met Office have a lot more data than we do available, they are also more knowledgeable, but from what we have available, it ties in nicely with latest GFS and a potential Scandi High allowing for colder air and wintry showers.

Exactly what I was just about to post. Thanks for saving me the time with a concise and clear argument. Edited January 2, 2014 by The Post-modern Winter

[phil nw.]

Ok guys let's leave the MO update discussion at that or continue in the appropiate thread-thanks.

 

The 12z runs are out soon let's talk about them.

[Weather Boy]

Wasn't it back on mid December that people were banging on about a cold outlook from the start of the new year ? Erm where's that then as the way I see it nothing has changed and the zonal weather will continue for at least another two weeks. Nothing out to suggest any good news for cold lovers. Write this month off in my book. It's going to be all about mid feb onwards in my eyes.

 

Although you are factually correct, it's a mistake to assume that just because models hinted at scenario A at a certain point and it didn't happen, it follows that a hint at a similar scenario at a later point therefore will not come up.  As even novice model watchers will tell you, models are unreliable at that range, but sometimes they latch on to the correct idea.

 

I think all the wrist slashing on here is crazily over the top.  The signals for some kind of change 10-20 days ahead are to my mind fairly clear, mostly but not totally strat based are clear.  Those signals were not there in mid-December.

[Downpour]

The point is the latest MO 16-30 day update wording has not changed and it won't until the latest ECM32 is available. Therefore it seems prudent to wait for this to be analysed and it's content possibly included, before assuming it will continue along the same path.   Moreover if you want to talk about what they are actually saying, it might be worth reading what they are actually saying, because perhaps not unsurprisingly it is absolutely loaded with if's, but's and maybe's. Therefore nothing can or should be taken for granted imo, either regarding their next update or a return to colder weather from mid month.  Still lots of water to flow under the bridge yet, but that said the signs are rather more positive than they have been for some considerable time.

It's another post of the "I urge caution" variety. Of course caution is always required when looking at any prognosis from the models as they are merely models and not scripts that must be followed. I would suggest most members are acutely aware of this and such warnings of "prudence" and "caution" are unnecessary.Yet the colder trends are there. And from another point of view, it unlikely that the weather will go on like this forever. "Whether it be dry or it be wet, the weather will always repay her debt". Well she's maxed out the credit card on rainfall in the manner of some frock-obsessed shopaholic, so I think it's fair to say it will soon be pay back time when the bills come in this month.

[MR EXTREMES]

don't think fishing is a good idea in the alantic this week some really stormy wet weather I hope the talk of this unsettled weather into april really is not the real deal incredible.

just goes to show the power of the vortex but remember all the energy is being drawn out of the vortex and alantic so a more settled spell is very much likely although I feel feb will be the month but im really not seeing a deep cold feb but surface cold could be the most likely outcome with a mlb instead of hlb.

but for now there a beast to our west on the gfs

[jvenge]

Why are we waiting for their ECM32 update now? This is an issue which constantly arises with certain posters. When cold is suggested via any avenue, be it any various models or the MO, we must always wait for some other juncture. Then once this has passed, we must wait for something else. The Met Offices updates change daily so they are clearly receiving regularly updated information and making judgements based on it - today's updates seems to signify an increased confidence and wider scope (no longer just the North) for wintery weather towards the end of the month. Additionally, if I remember correctly, the last ECM32 was deemed poor for any cold throughout the next month yet the Met Office are continuing with the theme of increasingly colder weather towards the months end. So indeed we can wait for their next update, but I don't believe it wise to do so. It could show a decrease in the cold signal, a period to rival 1947 and if it does, the Met Office may take a different view to it as they seem to have done this month. Why can we not just accept what the premier weather organisation the world are saying at this moment and be positive about it without caveats from the same people over and over again.

Cos its a model discussion thread :-) thats the whole point of it - discuss the models

[MR EXTREMES]

t120 gfs going nowhere this is the theme from nearly all the models European block was always going to be a thorn in our side, and still is no lower heights into Europe at all its another rubbish run for the coldies.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

t120 gfs going nowhere this is the theme from nearly all the models European block was always going to be a thorn in our side, and still is no lower heights into Europe at all its another rubbish run for the coldies.

Strong PV to the north west + big Baltic block = absolute dross for the UK.Not only that,its a very durable setup.(As we are witnessing painfully).

[The Post-modern Winter]

Cos its a model discussion thread :-) thats the whole point of it - discuss the models

Completely irrelevant retort. If anything you are defending my point. Cheers for the support.

[Mucka]

Wasn't it back on mid December that people were banging on about a cold outlook from the start of the new year ? Erm where's that then as the way I see it nothing has changed and the zonal weather will continue for at least another two weeks. Nothing out to suggest any good news for cold lovers. Write this month off in my book. It's going to be all about mid feb onwards in my eyes.

 

No.

A few were saying that conditions would be better for blocking at the start of January with a weak signal for a Scandinavian ridge which could lead to colder weather developing and some snow falling to lower levels,more so for the North and likely transient in the second week but remaining mainly unsettled with any blocking struggling to take hold through the first half of the month. It was also added that blocking could increase through the month. 

Pretty damn good considering it was a zonal fest and outlook at the time.

Please quote the posts whre people were "banging on" about a cold spell for start of the New Year and I might change mind.

 

As for your mid Feb onwards outlook, do you have anything to back that up or is it just a hunch?

Edited January 2, 2014 by Mucka

[R.P. McMurphy]

To be honest, I don't think anyone is expecting anything pre-15th of this Month for a good cold shot, the current theme is super hard to budge, and it wrote the whole of December off, and will probably write half if not more of January off before we see better synoptic setups for a cold shot.

 

Look East and Scandi from 14th January.... Before that, were in the same setup as now.

 

 

 

 

t120 gfs going nowhere this is the theme from nearly all the models European block was always going to be a thorn in our side, and still is no lower heights into Europe at all its another rubbish run for the coldies.

[Bobby]

Look at the bitter cold air flowing E from N. America into the warm moist air over the Atlantic. Going to continue providing plenty of fuel for deep cyclones to be catapulted our way you'd expect

 

850s temps, Theta-E 850s

 

 

Quite a temperature contrast.

Edited January 2, 2014 by Bobby

[MR EXTREMES]

Look at the bitter cold air flowing into the Atlantic from N. America meeting warm moist air over the Atlantic. Going to continue providing plenty of fuel for deep cyclones to be catipulted our way you'd expect

 

850s temps, Theta-E 850s

 

 

Quite a temperature contrast.

very realistic post bobby more of the same although the end of next weekend see a little lull as pressure rises from the southwest before the next onslaught.

will the met office be correct in there extended output please remember these change by the day and if the strat warming is cause for the excitement id be very clear to say that although this may help aid blocking of sorts it does not mean the vortex cant hold on and along with other weather dynamics id be very much on the fence including the month of feb1.

 

most of the longer range forecast models were pointing towards a mega freeze this winter the cfs being the worst although when it realised the vortex was here to party this winter it soon scrapped the idea.

 

I still see nothing turely exciting and the strat thread also showing a very on the fence approach.

 

gfs t192 back to square one.

Edited January 2, 2014 by emotional rollercoaster

[Mr Frost]

t120 gfs going nowhere this is the theme from nearly all the models European block was always going to be a thorn in our side, and still is no lower heights into Europe at all its another rubbish run for the coldies.

Am I missing something here? As per the the Metoffice outlook they are seeing signals for Winter to MAYBE arrive later in the month.

Why would anyone expect to see snow arriving before this? Especially not at 120 hours away. The mind boggles with some folk on here, it really does. The coldies are not expecting anything anytime soon so it is not a rubbish run for the people who can actually think and see for themselves.

The usual doom merchants are out in force today so best to let them get on with the glass half empty approach. (One particular member seems to have the same approach in Summer with regards to talking down any sort of warmth on the horizon so I am not surprised to see the same actions from him talking down any sort of cold on the horizon in Winter)

90% of people on here will see some snow and frost at some stage during the Winter - we always do.

It will come whether you like or don't like it.

[Mucka]

GFS 12z No slider but strong Arctic high looks promising.

 

 

Need the high pressure tot he South to buzz off though.

Edited January 2, 2014 by Mucka

[Cheshire Freeze]

An interesting run actually.....very different to the 6z and one which could throw up a surprise into FI

 

[TSNWK]

GFS 12z No slider but strong Arctic high looks promising.

 

But how can the artic high benefit us with no trigger slider low and heights to our south

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

GFS 12z No slider but strong Arctic high looks promising.

 

 

Need the high pressure tot he South to buzz off though.

We do mucka,the profile to the North/North East is actually quite promising on gfs 12z but that Euro high is doing all the damage.

[mountain shadow]

High pressure over the pole should push the jet South overtime, lowering heights in Europe.

[Mucka]

But how can the artic high benefit us with no trigger slider low and heights to our south

 

Because a trough can undercut it if we can lower heights over Europe allowing it to ridge SW, from there  all sort of possibilities would open up and just because there is no slider on this single run doesn't mean that is what will verify. Unfortunately the same applies to the behaviour of the Arctic high.

Edited January 2, 2014 by Mucka

[R.P. McMurphy]

A much better GFS already for cold fans... Arctic High force down Northerly winds...

 

[Mucka]

Have to love the way GFS throws the Azores at us the moment we lower pressure to the South. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

GFS loses the plot in FI.....a mish mash of synoptic garbage.....says it all and perhaps suggests a pattern change isn't far away

 

[R.P. McMurphy]

GFS does rid of the Atlantic Barrage a lot earlier on and replaces it with a cold NW feed... Potential for snow from this...

 

 

850's support:

 

 

[shedhead]

Nothing really changed on this run imo, still Euro High, N Atlantic low and the core PV over Baffin. 

 

 

Probably the best that can be said for it is the trend towards drying things up mid month holds firm.

 

Edited January 2, 2014 by shedhead