scotland Scotland Regional Weather Discussion 07/01/14

[Big Innes Madori]

Right then peeps!

 

As ahm no technical enough wi regards tae the Withur Models etc. ah rely oan two things.

Firstly, ah look in the Mad Hoose tae see whit the Very Learned are saying, Steve, Nick, Me Holmy, Frosty tae name but a few.

 

Secondly, ah then prefer tae look in here for whit Lorenzo, LS and BUS tae name but a few are saying   (I know our guys post in the MT), but you'd need an Aeburdeen Trawler tae land the best posts in there. 

 

So far This Winter has been dominated by Storms coming in of the the Atlantic.

Now! this has apparently been driven by an exceptionally strong Jet Stream, which in-turn has been driven by an exceptionally cold North American Winter. (Up-Stream)

 

If any thing, all of this more so than ever before, is confirming to me that what happens Up-Stream has a ultimate impact on our resulting weather here in the UK.

 

My conclusion therefore is that why do we not simply look at the Models for the USA / Canada to see what the projected weather is for them.

This area of the NH (Up-Stream) is continental and much more easy to forecast accurately than our Island Location within the NH and surrounded by Ocean & Sea.

 

I think that we could possibly prevent all the disappointment which Model watching and Interpretation bring to so many in the hunt for Snow, Cold & Easterlies, if we always observe North America very closely for their current & also forecast weather before we try to work out what might happen here at T+ whatever  

 

A simplistic view I Know, but to me it looks like as long as America & Canada are having a Record Breaking Winter, then We are phucked!!! 

 

Big Simple Innes

 

 

[Blizzardo]

Right then peeps!

 

As ahm no technical enough wi regards tae the Withur Models etc. ah rely oan two things.

Firstly, ah look in the Mad Hoose tae see whit the Very Learned are saying, Steve, Nick, Me Holmy, Frosty tae name but a few.

 

Secondly, ah then prefer tae look in here for whit Lorenzo, LS and BUS tae name but a few are saying   (I know our guys post in the MT), but you'd need an Aeburdeen Trawler tae land the best posts in there. 

 

So far This Winter has been dominated by Storms coming in of the the Atlantic.

Now! this has apparently been driven by an exceptionally strong Jet Stream, which in-turn has been driven by an exceptionally cold North American Winter. (Up-Stream)

 

If any thing, all of this more so than ever before, is confirming to me that what happens Up-Stream has a ultimate impact on our resulting weather here in the UK.

 

My conclusion therefore is that why do we not simply look at the Models for the USA / Canada to see what the projected weather is for them.

This area of the NH (Up-Stream) is continental and much more easy to forecast accurately than our Island Location within the NH and surrounded by Ocean & Sea.

 

I think that we could possibly prevent all the disappointment which Model watching and Interpretation bring to so many in the hunt for Snow, Cold & Easterlies, if we always observe North America very closely for their current & also forecast weather before we try to work out what might happen here at T+ whatever  

 

A simplistic view I Know, but to me it looks like as long as America & Canada are having a Record Breaking Winter, then We are phucked!!! 

 

Big Simple Innes

I think you're actually pretty close to the mark there and if you look at the posts from someone like BA and quite often Nick Sussex they are always banging on about North America, this has a big bearing on our weather down the line, especially during record breaking periods.

The PV that's been situated to their north for weeks on end is a monster and has dominated our winter so far and tbh I can't see any signs of it weakening. Until this happens the best we can maybe hope for is transient cold before it's blasted away again by an attack from this mighty PV to our west.

I'd love to see the PV work in our favour later in the winter but it will take some dramatic changes over the next few weeks to budge it.

[Ross B]

On mobile so can't see much but has there been an upgrade on the hill snow tonight? Motorway signs are warning of snow and meto have an ice wwarning out which mentions hill snow? Maybe a snow one about to be issued? Can't see charts with cr*p mobile connection.

[Ross B]

Ah, warnings just north of central belt. Must be because parts of Strathclyde are affected that its on the signs nr Glasgow.

edit: warning texts mentions chance of snow to low levels thro central belt for a time

Edited January 12, 2014 by Ross B

[blitzen]

Actually Big Innes, something I did not know surfaced on the 'Battered Britain' broadcast on Friday. Whilst the cameras were in the weather office, a forecaster demonstrated how, using computers, that they firstly check the predictions for weather in the USA. They then select the most likely pattern and use that as a starting point to compile our forecast for here.    So you see, you are not as meteorologically challenged as you thought you were!

Edited January 12, 2014 by Blitzen

[LomondSnowstorm]

Ah, warnings just north of central belt. Must be because parts of Strathclyde are affected that its on the signs nr Glasgow.

edit: warning texts mentions chance of snow to low levels thro central belt for a time

I think the delayed onset of the front is why the risk of snowfall has increased a bit - previously it looked like reaching us by 3pm but now that's extended to 9pm:

'Lower' uppers just about holding due to a slightly better tilted trough, with Glasgow westwards in particular having a shot of some early snowfall:

before turning more to rain later on:

The really intriguing bit is that uppers above 0C are overhead right now, draw up from the south, but slightly colder uppers will push in from the west with the front:

By midnight this layer is fine, but lower down the less cold air has mixed in:

Slightly unusual to see one layer warming while the other cools with frontal systems but this is an unusual one - we're currently in the 'warm sector' (believe it or not) although the warm front was incredibly weak and hasn't really managed to mix down to lower levels. When the cold front pushes in behind this evening it will cause the milder uppers to mix downwards while simultaneously bringing in a colder airmass From a geek point of view it will be fascinating to see how this unfolds - cold be a freezing rain-sleet-snow-rain event for some.

edit: forgot to put in the actual fax chart:

Edited January 12, 2014 by LomondSnowstorm

[Northernlights]

Well a very dreich dull calm day here with what the "ancestors" would say has the feeling of snow coming. Currently 2.8c so snow may not be out of the question later today. Ground frozen quite hard first thing this morning so there is a cold base for it. Feels like there is something in the air and I know not at all scientific 

Edited January 12, 2014 by Northernlights

[blitzen]

Was lovely to see another sparkling frost again this morning as they have become like hen's teeth so far this winter. Only got down to -0.7c overnight but it was quite damp. Currently still feeling chilly at 2.3c/1.8c/E. Hope we manage a few flakes this evening before it all goes off on one again!

[mistyqueen]

Afternoon Kilties! Temp got down to just below freezing here last night, but the cloud has returned and brought rain with it. We are currently at 4.1c, baro 1005 and steady. Doesn't look like winter is even near to chappin' on oor door yet.

[Highland Snow]

Leaving second son back to Pollock Halls to recommence his Engineering studies at Edinburgh Uni. this morning and what a contrast between there and Perth.

 

Edinburgh sunny and 7C, Perth dreich and a maximum of 1.2C and now falling! VERY foggy between Bridge of Earn and Glenfarg (visibility - 50 yards)

 

Very pleasant walk to Carrubbers church on The Royal Mile from Buccleuch Place at 11.30 and returning at 13.30.

[blitzen]

Jealous of Drumochter at the moment......*sigh*

[snowy owl]

Ok been into the MT and totally at a loss tbh.

 

Feelings mixed at what i can see is no major signs of mega snow or and easterly type event. Which is fab as eldest is off to school camp in one week and i'd probably be very worried if road conditions were treacherous, so it can snow all it likes after the 24th lol.

 

Still really missing having some snow, I know how you feel Blitzen. 

 

Anyways enough sadness, time for some cold weather lamb and roasties.

Edited January 12, 2014 by snowy owl

[Ross B]

Glasgow Airport is holding onto a low dew point for now, currently 4ºC/0ºC. It will be interesting to see how it pans out

 

Edit: Latest METAR reporting 3ºC/-1ºC which is game on for snow (or very cold rain )

Sleet here in Kilmarnock so probably good news for those further north/higher altitude!

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

SNOWING HERE!!   

[Hairy Celt]

Radar shows freezing rain for here which I would welcome briefly as I haven't seen it for about 30 years - but the reality is... no ppn at all!

[Blizzardo]

Precipitation has arrived for me and it's snow. Temperature still quite high at 3.7c but dewpoint low at -0.3c.

[CoastRainbow]

Hello

Just heavy cold rain here ! Was proper cold today , had my fingers crossed but hey ho ! For those who get some white stuff enjoy

[rob4al]

Some wet snow here in Coatbridge.

[skyeblue]

Vicky pollard if but no but if but no but

time will tell but

LAMPOST but

[A Winter's Tale]

Light snow - now larger flakes.

[Ravelin]

Overnight low here of -4.6C which is almost certainty the lowest of the year so far and even this winter so far. Not a very visible frost from that but the ground was still frozen solid at 3pm. Currently the temperature is 4.8/1.8C and rising slowly. In contrast to yesterday its been a grey, cold day rather than a bright cold day. Notable though that we've now gone 7 days with a total of 0mm of rain.

Not going to mention the models as its not worth the effort.

Edited January 12, 2014 by Ravelin

[skyeblue]

Vicky pollard .if but no but if but no but

lampost but .

it's snaw but

its s

aff again but

[CoastRainbow]

My silly snow dance worked Wet snow here

[DR(S)NO]

Sums up this winter nicely.........i actually got quite excited there ,when there was heavy sleet falling.....a slight covering on the car......has now given up....its pishin doon again!!!

[Ross B]

There's two words I haven't seen in the same sentence for a couple of years Ross, that brings back the memories

 

Edit: For anyone who hasn't been around here for more than a couple of years, I meant "sleet" and "Kilmarnock" as the two words.

Haha, driving back through to west Lothian soon so no doubt will be snow as I pass kilmalcom (well,within 10 miles or so!)