scotland Scotland Regional Weather Discussion 07/01/14

[BurntFishTrousers]

http://www.solarham.net/

 

Useful too. 

[over_the_rainbow]

How do you know when the right time is to watch for the aurora? 

[LomondSnowstorm]

The pub run has finally heard my plea for sanity and goes with the undercut. Pretty far from perfect but something to work with going into tomorrow:

Edited January 9, 2014 by LomondSnowstorm

[Hairy Celt]

Moon sets at 2am... Pfff.  However I just had a peep at Jupiter's rings so not totally wasted. Yet. (Day off tomorrow )

[Hairy Celt]

How do you know when the right time is to watch for the aurora? 

 

When the Moon's set and there's no cloud, so for you likely after about 2am cos the cloud may not have covered you by then. You weren't planning on breakfast with the family were you...

Edited January 9, 2014 by Hairy Celt

[Buriedundersnow]

sky cams Lapland

 

http://uk.jokkmokk.jp/

 

Canada sky cam live feed starts in 2 hours

 

http://www.asc-csa.gc.ca/eng/astronomy/auroramax/connect.asp

[Buriedundersnow]

GEFS 18z ensembles defo better than the 12z with more cold runs.

 

it does go warmer later but it always does.

 

[tiff]

How do you know when the right time is to watch for the aurora? 

These seem to be the best pages I've found for forecasts.

 

http://www.aurora-service.eu/aurora-forecast/

 

http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/North_New.html

Edited January 10, 2014 by tiff

[Cheggers]

A little chilly this morning, 3C on car on route in.

Nothing doing with the light show last night as cloud rolled in sooner than expected.

[Ravelin]

Temp at 8am this morning was 0.7/ll.lC with a slight frost on the car windscreens but nothing much else in evidence. Dead calm with blues skies and a bit of broken cloud, which led to the most stunning sunrise I've seen for a while on my drive to work. I'd to pull over into a lay-by and try to get a couple of photos on my phone, which I'll see if I can upload later if I get the time.

 

Nothing doing with the Aurora last night. Kept looking out occasionally up until I went to bed around midnight, and then again at around 3:30am when I needed the loo, but no evidence of flashy stuff in the sky despite it being clear. I haven't seen anything about it on the news this morning so I assume it was probably a non event.

[Highland Snow]

... I assume it was probably a non event.

I hope that is not the epitaph for next week come next Friday Ravelin!

 

Minimum was +2.6C at 05:05. Currently +4.4C, calm, 80% cloud cover, 1003.6 hPa.

[Ravelin]

As promised, photos to brighten up the mood after the overnight models have tried to dampen it....

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/19426-a96-sunrise-1/

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/19425-a96-sunrise-2/

 

Don't think they do justice to just how impressive a sunrise it was as by the time I stopped to take the pictures, of course the angle wasn't as good as at some points, the colours had changed etc. Also, no phone camera is ever as good as the human eye at capturing this sort of scene.

[over_the_rainbow]

Thanks for the help and links!  I kept an eye out until bedtime and also had a looksee when I let the dog out, but nothing to be seen. 

 

As HS says very grey here today but calm. 

[Hawesy]

Morning all,

 

Great sunrise here too after a spectacular day yesterday - 5.6 hours of sun!

 

Turning cooler over the weekend - perhaps a chance of Glasgow Bishopton and Edinburgh Gogarbank recording that elusive first air frost of the winter, especially tomorrow night!

[Hairy Celt]

Some desperate misery in the MT this morning. Apparently it may now not get really cold, just quite cold. Apparently also this may change. Apparently I am suffering from deja vu...

 

Lol apparently I've also got better things to do this afternoon!!

Edited January 10, 2014 by Hairy Celt

[blitzen]

All change again then! Only crumb of comfort I can find this morning is this post from Nick Sussex on the MOD. Think I will stick with that:

 

 

So the GFS 06hrs run backs the ECM 00hrs in terms of the NH pattern. However the models are still making a mess IMO of the pattern over western Europe, the funny thing is that the overall pattern continues to improve whilst the UK still seems to have its cold force field in place!

 

The orientation of the PV at 180hrs is really very good for bringing cold to the UK, so I've decided to just use my own experience here and I simply do not see how cold won't get to the UK, you  would need every possible drama going to not get something good for coldies out of the upstream pattern, especially with the blocking signal still evident to the east.

 

People can possibly think I'm in denial which is fair enough but I do feel the models are making a complete hash of the set up and would rather just go on past experience of these set ups and also that PV orientation, it simply screams cold for the UK!

 

Looking at this, You can see where he is coming from:  (well I can't but he obviously can!)

 

 

Edited January 10, 2014 by Blitzen

[November13]

Aye the Scandi high is not pushing west now. Yesterday it ws today it isn't? Wonder what will be on tomorrows chart. Not believing any of it now!

[Ross B]

hmm, BBC graphics have wintry showers making it all the way through the central belt later in the night and into tomorrow, we might manage a wee bit of snow here from that! Snowfalls on higher ground also mentioned in the meto text forecasts for West Lothian

[LomondSnowstorm]

hmm, BBC graphics have wintry showers making it all the way through the central belt later in the night and into tomorrow, we might manage a wee bit of snow here from that! Snowfalls on higher ground also mentioned in the meto text forecasts for West Lothian

 

Yeah, overnight could be a bit interesting:

Temperatures look fine away from the far west, potential for a dusting if you do catch a shower:

Slight issue with the 950s being a bit high, but these appear to push down as PPN approaches between 3 and 6am:

A wee bit of convective potential but you only need a bit to sustain the convection coming in from the Atlantic:

Probably not much more than a cm or two even for higher ground (maybe 2-3 mm precipitation at best for the southern band of showers just north of Glasgow, more like 4-5mm precipitation maximum for the NW Highlands) but it's been an entire month since we had any lying snow here so even a little hint of it on the cars would be welcome.

[edo]

A great post from Blitzen and from my limited time following the weather And models I agree....I expect to see a switch back to more than decent charts from the next run even for southerners followed by boom charts from the pub run....and then a step back tomorrow...2 steps forward and one back but hopefully we will get there.

Edited January 10, 2014 by edodfc

[Buriedundersnow]

heres a video I watched from SIMON KEELING he thinks if the pattern doesn't work we could still see things cool off and have some snow worth a watch to keep the snow interest going should the high fail

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KrvAD0yOKJE

 

also found this of the whole year of European weather from satellite from start to finish so our cold end to winter and into spring can be seen plus stormy December towards the end

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mPlCE22WyH0#t=99

Edited January 10, 2014 by Buriedundersnow

[Norrance]

Dull and damp here. 5C.

If you are feeling depressed today DO NOT go to the model thread just now!

[Hairy Celt]

Dull and damp here. 5C.If you are feeling depressed today DO NOT go to the model thread just now!

Yeah tried that this morning.  Got Ms HC to hide all the sharps and am glad we've still got the Xmas tree up, flickering, twinkling nicely...

[Cheggers]

Dull and damp here. 5C.If you are feeling depressed today DO NOT go to the model thread just now!

I don't don't go in period. Wet afternoon, but now clouds thining a little and temp is starting to drop. Currently 4c but feeling colder.

 

BUS, I like the weather in the year you posted.

[LomondSnowstorm]

While it's no beast from the east, the ECM solution for Tuesday is very cold and although mostly dry there could still be the potential for snow from features developing in the still cold air:

Uppers not that relevant because there's no wind but you'd be looking for -2C or lower I guess to be sure of snow:

Thicknesses around 520dm so very cold, still air. Other models have it a bit less slack and potentially more sleety/rainy but the above wouldn't be too bad.