Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

[Paul]

Latest week ahead forecast from Jo:

 

http://vimeo.com/84047983

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=5623;sess=

[Captain Shortwave]

Well then

Starting to turn rather chilly and some proper cold heading towards Eastern Scotland

[Dancerwithwings]

Now 12z

 

 

And yesterdays 12z

 

 

Things are looking up

Edited January 13, 2014 by Dancerwithwings

[nick sussex]

Well then

Starting to turn rather chilly and some proper cold heading towards Eastern Scotland

Lol!! you just couldn't make it up, this is just getting silly now! I feared the ECM might do this when I saw its T96hrs chart, I'm not sure this thread can take much more, for reasons of keeping our sanity do not believe any of the outputs and especially the ECM until its modelling of the high is shown within T72hrs, the last drama the models got that wrong at T96hrs.

[Ali1977]

So, the charts show potential at 144....is this potential likely to turn into a long cold easterly feed, or are we hoping for a 1 or do day chilly spell...

Still nothing from the met to say anything remotely cold is in the offing!!

I would like to be positive, however i'd also like to win the lottery...chance very very unlikely.

Edited January 13, 2014 by Ali1977

[karlos1983]

Well well well, I wonder if this is now more than 10-15%

[Stuie]

Is this Scandi high made by Ikea? Build it, collapses, build it...

[snowmadchrisuk]

ECM is bringing Cold uppers towards us at +144 

 

[Long haul to mild]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011312/ECM1-168.GIF?13-0

 

Lots of tiny lows over France as the main trough drifts SE. Strong flow into NE Scotland. Interesting stuff.

Edited January 13, 2014 by Chalk Serpent

[Matty M]

What ECMWF up to here!?

 

Not far from bringing in a chilly enough easterly feed.

 

[snowmadchrisuk]

By +168 you just know this is going to be a good run , it sends the energy SE 

 

[karlos1983]

Another shift west and it's game on again with that chart surely?

 

[Weathizard]

Oh here we go again... ECM screams potential at 144... I almost don't want to look at the rest of the run because I don't want to get my hopes up AGAIN.

Energy headed south east, high being pumped up..,

Edited January 13, 2014 by Weathizard

[cooling climate]

I really hope the ECM is somewhere near right tonight because for me its in the last chance

saloon. There are only so many wind ups you can take from a model. That said synoptically

the t144 and 168 charts look great but it seem as if it does not matter what synoptics we get

the models do not want to bath us in cold air. 850 temps are very disappointing for quite a

good synoptic looking chart.

[itsnowjoke]

I cant take it anymore...nerves in tatters.

Wheres our snow.

Are the models glue sniffing.

[Dancerwithwings]

By +168 you just know this is going to be a good run , it sends the energy SE 

 

 

 

 Looks good, but no real cold air over the continent to make a difference.

[bluearmy]

two points post T168 - will this run bring some of the atlantic jet se at day 7? the 00z run took it all ne. if we do get some split flow se, we would see the euro trough bosltered which will support the scandi ridge from sinking and possible help advect some properly cool uppers our way.second is way ne where the 12z run establishes a link between the scandi ridge and the real siberian high. its only narrow at day 7 but at least its there and may provide interest for later in the run. (though doubtful a day 7 arctic chart would verify)

[Long haul to mild]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011312/ECM1-192.GIF?13-0

 

Looks lovely, but the uppers are nothing write home about.......except for parts of the far NE

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011312/ECM0-192.GIF?13-0

Edited January 13, 2014 by Chalk Serpent

[karlos1983]

Oh heavens above, look at 192 

As others have said, shame about the uppers, although I'm sure those in the NE would disagree 

Edited January 13, 2014 by karlos1983

[Snowy L]

Oh god not again.Big difference to the GFS and UKMO.

[tight isobar]

What ECMWF up to here!?

 

Not far from bringing in a chilly enough easterly feed.

 

Ecm is upto what was feasibly in front of all imo.getting a grip firmly on synoptics, personaly after both witnessing and perseving recent synoptics with the initial easterl being progged, and appearing at the drop a a hat then the mods chucking it , then non decipher with windowed euro developments, im not ar all surprised and was expecting this to a large degree. And as for again the form horse maybe sailing to the finish line.while some watch and wish ed they would have gone for a win. ?.rather than an each way bet.

[karlos1983]

Oh god not again.Big difference to the GFS and UKMO.

I disagree, UKMO at 144

ECM at 144

Not massively different

[Dancerwithwings]

Uppers look better at 216

[cooling climate]

Might as well play along with the run for a while longer. The t192 chart is a beaut pity that

a chart such as that can only offer us 850's of -4cto -5c in the third week of January.

 

Lovely cold finally at t216 the t240 could be a slider with trough disruption to the west.

Don't believe any of it but nice to have a bit of fun for a change after the never ending

boredom without even a sniff of cold.

Edited January 13, 2014 by cooling climate

[Summer Sun]

T216 sees the colder air sweeping across the UK