spring 2014 Spring 2014 Discussion

[Geordiesnow]

Am I the only one who is a bit disapointed by the lack of snowfall this spring, especially after the rotten winter for snowfall, it seems Spring has followed suit and it seems peoples expectations on Spring is for dry sunny and warm weather.

 

That said, I do enjoy the clear sunny days and cool nights mind and I am looking forward to the next 2 days but just wish for a proper polar airstream but as we are heading past mid April, I would say any true polar airmass would just be a bit more of a nuisence than something that i would relish really. 

[Thundery wintry showers]

I have quite fond memories of the polar outbreaks in the Mays of 1995 and 1997.  There were hail and sleet showers around the region on the 11th/12th May 1995, and some fairly potent "convective days" (the 8th and 18th spring to mind) and there were snow showers widely on the 6th/7th May 1997.  The northerly outbreak in the second week of May 2005 was not cold enough for snow but many parts of NE England had hail and thunder from it.

 

However as we head into the second half of spring, if we get much modification from a relatively warm continent, it tends to result in relatively stable airmasses and cool cloudy conditions for the east with maybe a bit of shallow convection.

Edited April 15, 2014 by Thundery wintry showers

[Summer Sun]

UK's highest temperature today is in Aviemore with 16.7C

[Summer Sun]

Have to say the GFS has been pretty untrustworthy recently, UKMO and ECM have been more the models to take seriously. Been looking at the CFS recently on Meteociel and on the noaa site for may and it paints a very similar picture of above average heights in the British isles. By the way this is my first post for a while since I've been back here.

 

Welcome back nice to see you posting again

 

Yes GFS has had a poor time lately even at what we'd call a reliable time-frame (ie t144 &168) UKMO has certainly performed well along with ECM

[Summer Sun]

Reckon that there is a bit of a bug with GFS currently, even the ensembles haven't been as good as they could be.

 

Somewhere you can compare the models to see how they are performing I'd like to see where GFS sits currently

[Summer Sun]

Don't know where you can find the verification charts from to be honest.

 

Neither do I I've forgot but I have saw them posted on the forums

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Lovely evening here with what looks like a bush fire starting in the hills.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Impressive for nearly May!!!  Snow for the far North.

 

[AderynCoch]

Today was magnificent. Forget spring-like, it was practically the first day of summer. A huge line for the ice cream van outside Croxteth Hall can attest to that.

[reef]

Today was magnificent. Forget spring-like, it was practically the first day of summer. A huge line for the ice cream van outside Croxteth Hall can attest to that.

Its shows what a difference 100 miles can make. Here we had a brief sunny morning with a max of 13.7C before rain in the afternoon and a temp in single figures.

[AderynCoch]

It has clouded over here this evening with some rain thrown in. Looks like a case of good timing!

[feb1991blizzard]

I know that as soon as I see that you're the most recent poster, it almost inarguably has something to do with cold weather on the horizon! LOL

 

Yes, here is a stonker for May, look at this for a PV,  Note the fridgid air over the North West of England and South East, sub 520 heights with 1015mb - a stonker!!!

 

[Summer Sun]

Met office ensemble mean maps for April have finally updated

 

The period of May to July continues to show slightly above average 2m temperatures (same for all of summer as well)

 

 

Pressure is shown to be higher than normal (same for all of summer)

 

 

Below average precipitation is shown this continues for all of the summer

 

 

Jamstec has also updated for the period of June to August

 

Precipitation is shown to be average to slightly below average

 

 

The surface air temperature anomaly ranges from slightly below average to slightly above average

 

[reef]

Met office ensemble mean maps for April have finally updated

 

The period of May to July continues to show slightly above average 2m temperatures (same for all of summer as well)

 

Pressure is shown to be higher than normal (same for all of summer)

 

Below average precipitation is shown this continues for all of the summer

 

Jamstec has also updated for the period of June to August

 

Precipitation is shown to be average to slightly below average

 

The surface air temperature anomaly ranges from slightly below average to slightly above average

 

 

 

All of those charts show completely average conditions SS. The only with any noticeable anomoly is the SLP chart which shows slightly higher pressure than average to the North of the UK.

[summer blizzard]

Judging by the CFS they are suggesting a better first half of summer than the second half. Probably down to the QBO and MEI matches. Come to think of it we need Summer Blizzard on board to do some analogue reanalysis. Think 2009 is definitely in there, possibly 1994 too.

 

Just had a quick look and going by 3 month intervals and expected conditions this July-September period..

 

2004 and 2003 were the last occasions that Q3 of any year saw all 3 months featuring positive PDO conditions...

 

2012 and 2009 were the last occasions that Q3 saw -QBO conditions in all three months.

 

1997 and 1995 were the last occasions that Q3 saw +GLAMM conditions in all three months.

 

2012 and 2009 were the last occasions that Q3 saw +MEI conditions.

 

..

 

2012 and 2009 sticking out there (can't argue with the following winters) however the GLAAM and PDO matches are different. Of those 6 years, 5 saw above average summers although 2004 and 2009 were quite wet as was 2012 of course.

[MP-R]

Well I suppose a summer like 2009 wouldn't be the end of the world, 2 out of 3 months were good in the south at least, only July was notably bad. 2012 on the other hand was very different! 

[Chris K]

Well I suppose a summer like 2009 wouldn't be the end of the world, 2 out of 3 months were good in the south at least, only July was notably bad. 2012 on the other hand was very different! 

 

I just hope this trend being shown in the models for the end of this week doesn't become entrenched, with troughs loitering over the UK until they fill in until another takes it's place...that is rather reminiscent of late Spring/Summer 2012 I believe...

[MP-R]

True Chris K. The thought of another summer 2012 makes me shudder. If the frequency of thunder could come with more settled spells between that would be ideal. It's the first time I've seen this comparison made for this summer though as I read earlier in the week that rainfall was progged to be close to or slightly below average for this summer. Time will tell.

[feb1991blizzard]

Lovely, the GFS is starting to play catch up yet again, all becoming less West-based, game set match ECM AGAIN>

[Costa Del Fal]

Good grief some ugly charts for next week. Hope it doesnt become entrenched. Very reminiscent of Summer 2012 where it was pretty much just the UK stuck under lows whilst everywhere else in Europe enjoyed great sunny and warm conditions. Suppose its best to have it now. Cant see why coldies would enjoy it personally unless cloud, rain and 8-12c floats your boat...

[Evening thunder]

Doesn't look too bad for the south at least at first on the 18z with often sunshine and showers, and slightly above average maxima. ECM gets colder though.

 

Thankfully such Greenland highs and things have no effect on summer as 1995 amongst I'm sure other examples showed.

[feb1991blizzard]

Told you, a corker for this time of year.

 

 

[Frank Trough]

Told you, a corker for this time of year.

 

 

 

The GFS doesn't develop that classic little spoiler low off Greenland at t+168. GEM and ECM do and it prevents any proper cold air filtering south. If it was winter you can bet your bottom dollar that low would verify but it's now beyond the mid point in spring.

[Summer Sun]

Cracking spring day here in Darlington wall to wall sunshine hardly even a breeze could reach 17 or 18c by this afternoon if it stays sunny

 

Feel sorry for those in NE Scotland who once again are likely to be stuck with low cloud and temperatures struggling to even make it into double figures

[Polar Maritime]

Yes cloudy sky's here, temp 8.7c.