spring 2014 Spring 2014 Discussion

[Summer Sun]

Jamstec update for the period of March to May

 

Surface air temp Anomaly is shown to be above normal

 

 

Precipitation looks close to average

 

 

A sneak peak at summer and we have below average rainfall and above average temperatures for the period of June to August

 

[Richard2901]

Very boring Spring so far with no variability, 3C above average, windy, lots of ridiculously mild nights (4 8C+ mins in last week), extreme lack of frost, sunshine only modestly above average, zero convection.

 

It looks as though March will even surpass the winter for an extreme lack of cold weather with not a single cold day so far. The lowest max has been just 7.4C on the 2nd which is average for that stage of the month. There has only been one day below 6C since 14th February and that was 19th February with a max of 5.8C which means there hasn’t been a cold day for 6 weeks. It's incredible - even March 2012 recorded a low max of 4.6C which was previously my highest on record for March.

 

Pretty much a certainty now that there will be no lying snow in the first quarter of the year for the first time since at least 1872 and just a few mm needed to make it the wettest first quarter since 1883

 

[feb1991blizzard]

-6c just flirting with East coast within 96 - chilly.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Bulk of the UK in the -4°C range too meaning that snow could be more or less possible for many areas...

 

To be honest It would probably be a dry Easterly with little precipitation but at least it wouldn't be oppressive like that high about 10 days ago, I am very interested in scenarios like late FI on the 6z GFS developing afterwards, still a decent cold pooling there at 240+  on tonights ECM and many model runs lately.

[MP-R]

Lol, oppressive... really? There's been nothing oppressive yet this year. This time of the year I look forward to the days of sunshine and showers (though more impressive showers than this current spell), not dry, cloudy easterlies that would have been right at home at any time up until the middle of March.

[feb1991blizzard]

Decent low res GFS but we need a bigger wedge of HP between the lows over E.Canada / W. Greenland and that over scandi, we don't want those 2 lows engaging each other to the North of us, we want a North Easterly, really we want a low to develop and sink through us with enough cold air engaged, a showers setup wont cut it at this time of year.

 

[Costa Del Fal]

To be honest It would probably be a dry Easterly with little precipitation but at least it wouldn't be oppressive like that high about 10 days ago, I am very interested in scenarios like late FI on the 6z GFS developing afterwards, still a decent cold pooling there at 240+  on tonights ECM and many model runs lately.

Oppressive? Come on thats quite OTT, cold lover or not!

[feb1991blizzard]

Oppressive? Come on thats quite OTT, cold lover or not!

 

 

Not if you live in a house that whenever the sun comes up for any length of time outside Dec and Jan that becomes a heat trap but you cannot open windows because its like call of the wild with insects (moths, flies, spiders, dogs, cats, sheep, squirrels) flying into your home if you dare open the window.

[Summer Sun]

A chilly spell coming up especially in the east

 

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

 

Rather cloudy on Tuesday with rain in places. Mostly dry thereafter with a few showers, mainly in the east of the UK. Feeling cold in brisk winds across eastern Britain.

[Summer Sun]

Weather Online's outlook for April and May

 

Mix April

Fair May?

Issued: Sunday 2nd March 2014
Duty forecasters: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob

*April*

 

Confidence in the forecast for April is best described as being very low. Current indications are for a reasonable start to the month with some sunny spells and largely fair, mild weather. However, a breakdown to westerly winds is likely before the first third of the month is completed, this leading to a wet period through the middle part of the month (which encompasses the Easter period). There are hints of more eastern and southern areas becoming drier and brighter for a time, and perhaps warm, but always tending to stay more unsettled to the west. Rainfall is likely to be near normal for most, but just below normal in Scotland. Temperatures probably above average overall.

*May*

 

Once again there is lower confidence in the forecast for May. Generally there is expected to be a fair mount of dry weather during the month, especially to the south. Most rainfall affecting western Scotland, northwest England and western Ireland is likely to be warm than normal, and it could be very warm at times in southern England.

Captain Bob & Simon Keeling

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=Seasonal-outlook

[feb1991blizzard]

A Nice ECM 240 mean but unless wee start to see some colder runs on the ECM ext ens soon (preferably in about 17 mins time), then the troughing to the South West being the spoiler will remain the favourite, at last some hope though.

[Summer Sun]

I hope I don’t sound like a dick here but just give it up. It’s not going to happen and even if there is any snow it will most likely just be a dusting at best. The possibility of any significant snowfall is over until at least November.

 

They said that this weekend was going to be wintry, but really it has only been slightly below average with minimal snow in some places. For this “winterâ€, it’s over I’m afraid.

 

Yep Nick Miller summed it up nicely in the week ahead forecast:

 

A typical spring week

 

Chilly easterly breeze but temperatures will be close to normal

 

Showers but nothing prolonged

 

The 2nd line is key yes we'll see an easterly wind but temperatures are going to be close to average 2 months back are you would be looking at "ice days" in places but Europe is warming up now as GFS shows an SE'ly wind at the weekend could bring temperatures into the high teens for the south

[Milhouse]

Only issue is that any warmth from the east is tempered somewhat by the North Sea. The best of the temperatures would therefore be in southern England where the air has to travel over the least water. But at least the SSTs are warmer than average.

[Summer Sun]

I do admit though, it is extremely frustrating that the perfect setup establishes itself now and not at any point in the winter. Nonetheless, I am just focused on spring and summer now – bring on the heat!

 

Similar for the likes of me when we see the perfect Spanish plume setup when its too late

[feb1991blizzard]

I do admit though, it is extremely frustrating that the perfect setup establishes itself now and not at any point in the winter. Nonetheless, I am just focused on spring and summer now – bring on the heat!

 

 

Its always more likely now than in winter though, March is more snowy than December and April more than November, blocking less likely in late Autumn and Early winter as a strong PFJ is more likely due to strong temperature gradient.

[feb1991blizzard]

I wish the Greenland high was a permanent feature throughout the whole year like the Azores high so although I would rather have one in winter, I welcome one anytime.

[feb1991blizzard]

Not much support from other suites today so thought a backtrack inevitable, not a bit of it, umpteenth ECM op in a row going for a cold Easterly.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

If we could get to 240 unscathed, a chance of snow after that

[Summer Sun]

Sunday night / early Monday morning saw a low of -6.8C at Redesdale Camp in Northumberland which made it the coldest night in England for almost 1 year

[feb1991blizzard]

Snow showers inbound.

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Snow showers inbound.

 

 

That wont happen, just the way it is this winter, not happening for us, GFS been right all winter really with average/mild setups, and likely to be again this time in FI

[feb1991blizzard]

Cracking GFS 12z FI, exactly the right type of Northern blocking needed at this time of year, the Final Strat warming at last baring fruit.

 

[Summer Sun]

Cracking GFS 12z FI, exactly the right type of Northern blocking needed at this time of year, the Final Strat warming at last baring fruit.

 

 

However at 360 hours away its very unlikely to happen

[Summer Sun]

Warming up for the weekend

 

Temperatures are forecast to rise for parts of the UK this weekend. Louise Lear has more details.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/26752753

[Zenarcher]

My April 2014 forecast http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/227/entry-4739-april-2014-forecast/