spring 2014 Spring 2014 Discussion

[MP-R]

There's been a regional contrast in the sunshine figures this winter- Lincolnshire, East Anglia and the SE have consistently had above average sunshine but it has been very dull in western Scotland and north-west England.

 

Ah fair enough. Well that would explain why there are blossoms out and about already here in Egham. A truly balmy corner of the country down here!

[damianslaw]

There's been a regional contrast in the sunshine figures this winter- Lincolnshire, East Anglia and the SE have consistently had above average sunshine but it has been very dull in western Scotland and north-west England.

 

There's been a regional contrast in the sunshine figures this winter- Lincolnshire, East Anglia and the SE have consistently had above average sunshine but it has been very dull in western Scotland and north-west England.

 

 

Yes it has been abysmally cloudy this winter here in Cumbria with very limited sunshine. I can count on one hand the number of mornings I have awoken to sunshine. The rain and wind has been bad enough but combined with lack of sunshine has made for one of the most despressing winters in a long while. The sunshine of Friday morning just gone felt very unusual- god spring can't come quick enough. My last word on winter 2013/2014 good riddance you will not be missed - I have hated this winter.

[Summer Sun]

A lovely spring morning here in Darlington after yesterday's cloud and rain

 

Much better this morning with lots of sunshine

[cheeky_monkey]

Has been a brutally cold start to spring here..woke up to -38c on Saturday morning..never got above -30c all day..just filing my car up with petrol was a pinful process on my hands..remaining cold for the rest of the week might get above -20c today if i am lucky..spring seems a long way away....brrrrr

[March Blizzard]

Has been a brutally cold start to spring here..woke up to -38c on Saturday morning..never got above -30c all day..just filing my car up with petrol was a pinful process on my hands..remaining cold for the rest of the week might get above -20c today if i am lucky..spring seems a long way away....brrrrr

 

Yes CM, it seems like a lot of records have been broken in central Canada recently, particularly in Saskatchewan. A few places got below -40C, I believe, and suggestions early March has brought the coldest temperatures of the season yet in some places.

[feb1991blizzard]

Seen enough long range model output over the last few years and TRENDS which is the most important thing, im calling a well below average spell in early April, looks like a Final strat warming could be on for late March which would tie in with this also.

 

 

 

This not as barmy solution as it looks in my opinion.

[March Blizzard]

Seen enough long range model output over the last few years and TRENDS which is the most important thing, im calling a well below average spell in early April, looks like a Final strat warming could be on for late March which would tie in with this also.

 

 

 

This not as barmy solution as it looks in my opinion.

That's why I'd rather see charts like that for now, and the charts we are seeing for the next week or two for early/mid April. Can we swap?

[feb1991blizzard]

That's why I'd rather see charts like that for now, and the charts we are seeing for the next week or two for early/mid April. Can we swap?

 

They can deliver in mid April but I feel you need a developing wave feature with a big cold pool above, purely convective shpowery flows are useless as it just melts, heavy snow for 5 minutes - melt - heavy snow - melt,   - March 22nd ish last year and April 4th ish 2012 were big highlights around here - sinking trough involved - 1981 late April the classic eg of all time.

[Recretos]

Seen enough long range model output over the last few years and TRENDS which is the most important thing, im calling a well below average spell in early April, looks like a Final strat warming could be on for late March which would tie in with this also.

 

 

I went over the full CFSv2 dailies/monthlies output, including this exact same run that you have presented, and I cant say that the FW actually helps with the situation on that chart. Looks like a fluent FW with the strat. kinda "detaching" itself, unlike in winter months when the coupling is at max. and the disruptions and warmings have much more effect.

 

Edit: Besides, there is only one scenario on that chart, while CFSv2 has at least 4-5 scenarios on a daily basis to begin with. (4 as ensemble members)

Edited March 4, 2014 by Recretos

[feb1991blizzard]

I went over the full CFSv2 dailies/monthlies output, including this exact same run that you have presented, and I cant say that the FW actually helps with the situation on that chart. Looks like a fluent FW with the strat. kinda "detaching" itself, unlike in winter months when the coupling is at max. and the disruptions and warmings have much more effect.

 

Edit: Besides, there is only one scenario on that chart, while CFSv2 has at least 4-5 scenarios on a daily basis to begin with. (4 as ensemble members)

 

 

 

Thanks for the info,  just for future reference, are the full runs available of all the CFS ensembles on the NOAA site?

[Recretos]

Yes they are (by full runs I meant the full vertical and temporal resolution ), but in gridded format only. 

Edited March 4, 2014 by Recretos

[Weather-history]

Seen enough long range model output over the last few years and TRENDS which is the most important thing, im calling a well below average spell in early April, looks like a Final strat warming could be on for late March which would tie in with this also.

 

 

 

This not as barmy solution as it looks in my opinion.

It feels like because we have been so devoid of winter weather thus far, that it will have at least one snap how brief at us during spring.

[Summer Sun]

Just in from the met office

 

A temperature of 15.5°C has been recorded at Gravesend today, making it the warmest day of the year so far

[hillbilly]

It feels like because we have been so devoid of winter weather thus far, that it will have at least one snap how brief at us during spring.

In these times of extremes it may be possible for april to take the coldest temp of the extended winter season and maybe the coldest month,that would be amazing!!!!!

[March Blizzard]

In these times of extremes it may be possible for april to take the coldest temp of the extended winter season and maybe the coldest month,that would be amazing!!!!!

I suppose coldest temp of the season isn't too unlikely but considering January came in at 5.7C (CET) it would take an extremely cold April to beat it...and this is based on the assumption March won't be colder still, which is entirely possible at this early juncture, even if it doesn't look probable at the moment.For reference, the coldest April (CET) is 4.7C. To beat January we would need an April in at least the top 17 coldest. April 1986 came in at 5.8C.

[Milhouse]

All ready for Spring now. Light winds and some sunshine will make for perfect early Spring conditions and i will be able to get back on the golf course. I just hope we arent using up the high pressure before the clocks go forward like in 2012.

[Summer Sun]

BBC weather for next week

 

High pressure

 

Dry

 

Frosty nights

 

Where cloud lingers during the day highs will be around 10c

 

Where the sun is shining highs will be around 17c given the sun is getting a lot stronger now

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/26485443

[March Blizzard]

BBC weather for next week High pressure Dry Frosty nights Where cloud lingers during the day highs will be around 10c Where the sun is shining highs will be around 17c given the sun is getting a lot stronger now http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/26485443

Cloud can have a massive impact on temperatures at this time of year. I remember a high of 4/5C here on the 15th March 2012 under persistent fog while parts of the south hit the high teens in sunshine.

[Summer Sun]

Warmest day of the year again today with a high of 16.8C recorded in St James park (London), Kew is close behind with 16.4C, Bournemouth and Northampton make up 3rd and 4th place also hitting 16c

 

A huge north south split in the temps today cold and snowy in Scotland, Sunny and warm in the south

 

Note since the below pic was produced 16.8C was recorded in St James park moving Kew down to 2nd

 

[damianslaw]

Yes mid winter in Scotland today and late spring in the south. Quite a contrast and you would be surprised looking at the synoptics it was thanks to a pulse of cold uppers last night over Scotland but a warm front languishing over southern parts.

I do love how Spring can produce such contrasts from north to south. April can bring mid winter to the north and summer to the south at the same time.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I remember a day in late May 2005 when it was 31C max in London but only 10C in Edinburgh.

[summer blizzard]

I remember a day in late May 2005 when it was 31C max in London but only 10C in Edinburgh.

 

28th. It hit 32.4C (0.4C off the record) and was about 6C in Scotland.

[Summer Sun]

15C at Gravesend just before 12:21 also 15c in Barnstaple likely to see the warmest day of the year today and then again tomorrow

[Weather-history]

I remember a day in late May 2005 when it was 31C max in London but only 10C in Edinburgh.

[cheese]

The met have 16C for here tomorrow, with sunshine all day. Could be higher.