spring 2014 Spring 2014 Discussion

[Summer Sun]

Early fog warnings issued

 

Issued at: 1107 on Wed 12 Mar 2014

Valid from: 0200 on Thu 13 Mar 2014

Valid to: 1000 on Thu 13 Mar 2014

 

Fog patches are expected to form overnight onwards into early Thursday morning, becoming dense in places with visibility below 200 metres at times. The public should be aware of the potential for some difficult driving conditions and disruption to travel, particularly during the morning rush hour.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

Light winds and clear skies overnight and during Thursday morning will allow fog to form in places. Not everywhere in the yellow area will see fog, but where it forms it is likely to be dense at times, especially in low-lying areas. The fog will then slowly clear through the middle of the morning.

 

Regions under the warning

 

Wales

North West England

North East England

Yorkshire & Humber

West Midlands

East Midlands

East of England

South West England

London & South East England

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&regionName=uk&fcTime=1394668800

[March Blizzard]

Aboyne was at -5.7C at 7am this morning on the hourly observations, so the overall value may surpass or match the December 2013 low of -6.1C in Dalwhinnie on the 7th.

 

I'd imagine many places have had more air frosts so far in March than the entire winter.

Edited March 12, 2014 by March Blizzard

[Don]

Netweather's long range forecast for April to June is now available

 

April

 

Unsettled weather with low pressure often on the scene is a phrase we heard a lot of during the winter, and currently the outlook for April is looking to be reminiscent of that with lower than average pressure expected across the British Isles. As you may expect, that's forecast to lead to a wetter than average month for much of the country, although eastern regions may buck the trend and stay closer to average. Temperatures are forecast to be closer to the norm for the time of year overall.

 

May

 

The final month of Spring sees some uncertainty in the overall pattern with higher than average pressure to the north and northeast of the UK being the only clear signal currently. For eastern regions, and also the north of Scotland a slightly drier or close to average month is likely, elsewhere it's another wetter than average month currently being forecast. Temperatures are again expected to be near to normal, although the northern half of Scotland could be warmer than average.

 

Summer

 

June

 

At this range confidence does start to fall away, but current data suggests that June could be a warm but wet month in most parts - with parts of England and Wales much wetter than average.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=

 

 

I like the look of the new charts.

[damianslaw]

Many long range forecasts have been suggesting quite a dry mild March overall followed by a cool wet April and an indifferent May.

 

The reason for the wetter cooler signal for April is the signal of heights developing to our north and these lingering into May - often happens in April as the PV weakens substantially.

 

I urge people to look back at 2012 and how the exceptional dry warm March was followed by one of the wettest Aprils on record. The current conditions have no bearing on the spring as a whole and often we see switches from warm dry weather to cold wet weather in Spring more so than any other season.

 

I have an inkling we will see a rather unsettled chilly April.

[JK1]

how accurate are these forecasts?

 

Netweather's long range forecast for April to June is now available

 

April

 

Unsettled weather with low pressure often on the scene is a phrase we heard a lot of during the winter, and currently the outlook for April is looking to be reminiscent of that with lower than average pressure expected across the British Isles. As you may expect, that's forecast to lead to a wetter than average month for much of the country, although eastern regions may buck the trend and stay closer to average. Temperatures are forecast to be closer to the norm for the time of year overall.

 

May

 

The final month of Spring sees some uncertainty in the overall pattern with higher than average pressure to the north and northeast of the UK being the only clear signal currently. For eastern regions, and also the north of Scotland a slightly drier or close to average month is likely, elsewhere it's another wetter than average month currently being forecast. Temperatures are again expected to be near to normal, although the northern half of Scotland could be warmer than average.

 

Summer

 

June

 

At this range confidence does start to fall away, but current data suggests that June could be a warm but wet month in most parts - with parts of England and Wales much wetter than average.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=

Edited March 12, 2014 by JK1

[March Blizzard]

Aboyne was at -5.7C at 7am this morning on the hourly observations, so the overall value may surpass or match the December 2013 low of -6.1C in Dalwhinnie on the 7th. I'd imagine many places have had more air frosts so far in March than the entire winter.

Aboyne confirmed at -6.5C for early on the 12th. That's colder than anything in December (-6.1C) and just a shade of January's low of -6.6C. February's -7.7C looks fairly safe for the time being.

[Bottesford]

Will be interested to see how this spring goes both here & in the UK.

The constant Atlantic weather you've had has simply resulted in very dry, mostly mild/sunny conditions here (bar the two week extreme cold spell we got). Now you've settled a bit (and under the same high we have at the moment) and we're now looking at colder/wetter conditions moving in on Saturday. The high looks like it will drift further west and allows storms from a northerly airflow.

So perhaps the rest of March will be poorer here (after being cloudless and close to 20c for a week not surprising!) but better later in spring.. I dunno but interesting finding out!

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm still hoping the Jet maintains it current migration north over the rest of spring? The PV will weaken but let it trouble the U.S. and Asia and set up a Jet pattern that favours frequent HP over us here in the UK.

 

It is also looking like we are about to see the first signs of EL Nino forming over late March? How will this impact with it's knock on impacts?

[March Blizzard]

Light snow at Spadeadam, apparently!

[DAVID SNOW]

how accurate are these forecasts?

 

 

 

how accurate are these forecasts?

 

Its based on the CFS(USA) model,make of that what you will

Edited March 13, 2014 by DAVID SNOW

[Summer of 95]

Fog is still struggling to lift here, Sun is very hazy...

 

I've been wondering, is this persistent fog/murk due to the wet winter? The ground is still very waterlogged, roads have dried but there is still standing water on the fields. Is all this moisture saturating the air and causing fog and mist to form, despite the high pressure and dry airmass?

 

It's particularly notable that the areas that were wettest compared to average (south, Midlands, east Wales) have been getting the worst of this murk while the north of England, which wasn't so wet, is avoiding a lot of it. It isn't North Sea Muck either, it's been forming over land and the east coast is missing a lot of it. So is the wet winter spoiling what should be a clear, warm, sunny setup?

[Richard2901]

 

I'd imagine many places have had more air frosts so far in March than the entire winter.

 

Every bit as poor as winter here. Just two frosts so far: -0.1C on the 1st and -0.8C on the 4th. This week should have had some but even with pressure over 1030mb the ever present breeze scuppered things. Got down to +0.3C at 2am yesterday before the wind picked up

 

I've now had only one min as low as -1C since 25th January and the air frost duration for autumn, winter and spring combined looks like falling short of my previous worst total for winter alone. I've had shockingly low total of just 104 hours below freezing since the first air frost on 5th November. The previous lowest total just for winter was 141.1 hours for 2007/08 and I think there's almost no chance of that being reached as, at this stage, frosts rarely last more than a few hours. When including autumn and spring, 2006/07 had the lowest total of 175.8 hours.

 

Maxima in March so far have been extremely unvaried continuing the tedious theme of winter. A range of just 6C from a coldest max of 7.4C to mildest, 13.4C. All previous Marches since I started recording in 2006 managed at least one day below 5C and all except 2008 and 2013 exceeded 13.4C 

[Milhouse]

Fog is still struggling to lift here, Sun is very hazy...

 

I've been wondering, is this persistent fog/murk due to the wet winter? The ground is still very waterlogged, roads have dried but there is still standing water on the fields. Is all this moisture saturating the air and causing fog and mist to form, despite the high pressure and dry airmass?

 

It's particularly notable that the areas that were wettest compared to average (south, Midlands, east Wales) have been getting the worst of this murk while the north of England, which wasn't so wet, is avoiding a lot of it. It isn't North Sea Muck either, it's been forming over land and the east coast is missing a lot of it. So is the wet winter spoiling what should be a clear, warm, sunny setup?

 

We have had misty mornings recently on the east coast but as you say its burnt back a lot quicker here and its turned into a lovely afternoon. And in contrast to the west country, there was very little standing water in the fields during the wet spell so the countryside is looking quite dry now. So you may have a point.

[Summer Sun]

BBC weathers look ahead for this weekend

 

Largely dry

 

Some warm sunshine

 

Breezy

 

[virtualsphere]

Many long range forecasts have been suggesting quite a dry mild March overall followed by a cool wet April and an indifferent May.

 

The reason for the wetter cooler signal for April is the signal of heights developing to our north and these lingering into May - often happens in April as the PV weakens substantially.

 

I urge people to look back at 2012 and how the exceptional dry warm March was followed by one of the wettest Aprils on record. The current conditions have no bearing on the spring as a whole and often we see switches from warm dry weather to cold wet weather in Spring more so than any other season.

 

I have an inkling we will see a rather unsettled chilly April.

 

Not liking the comparison with 2012 much there.. if it's just the spring then that would be ok, I can handle an unsettled April, it's if it continues into and throughout the summer that would worry me, especially after the winter we've had!

 

The Netweather LRF for April to June isn't too inspiring either, but on the plus side March has turned out to be a very nice month so far.  Unsettled isn't too bad here as long as the source isn't from the SW.  I'd take a showery northerly or a grey, chilly dry easterly in preference to more wet SW'lies.

[Summer Sun]

Providing it doesn't rain today I will have gone 9 days without any rain and just 4mm for the first 14 days in Darlington

 

At the moment we are even drier than March 2012 when 9mm had fallen in the opening 5 days with the final rainfall of the month coming on the 17th giving a total of 10mm

[feb1991blizzard]

 

 

Decent ridging into Greenland.

[Jax]

It would be nice if the seasons were 'seasonal'

[Costa Del Fal]

Looks like the south wont see too much unsettled weather at the moment. Longer term, it looks like the Azores is happy to continue ridging in. Bit more unsettled up north but for us down here, more warm sunny days at times.

 

GFS admittedly doesnt look great but probably not too bad and will be watered down any deep low pressures I suspect.

Edited March 15, 2014 by Blizzards

[Milhouse]

Another day of decent temperatures. 16c/17c in the south east. Low teens elsewhere. Such a contrast to this time last year. The grass has had its first cut of the year which seems to herald the start of the warm half of the year just like the changing of the clocks do.

[March Blizzard]

Another day of decent temperatures. 16c/17c in the south east. Low teens elsewhere. Such a contrast to this time last year. The grass has had its first cut of the year which seems to herald the start of the warm half of the year just like the changing of the clocks do.

Not true. May-Oct is the warmer half of the year.

[Tony27]

the garden season is from march till november and i'd generally say the non cold and not very dark season is from march till november too, joe public and mildies don't realize how lucky they are

Edited March 15, 2014 by Tony27

[March Blizzard]

the garden season is from march till november and i'd generally say the non cold and not very dark season is from march till november too, joe public and mildies don't realize how lucky they are

This year the cold season has been bypassed!

[Summer Sun]

@bbcweatherTemperatures in the southeast are already 3 deg warmer than this time yesterday (11:27am). We're likely to top 20 deg this afternoon

[March Blizzard]

@bbcweatherTemperatures in the southeast are already 3 deg warmer than this time yesterday (11:27am). We're likely to top 20 deg this afternoon

More massive contrasts in temperature typical at this time of year, here it is cool and cloudy while parts of the east/south are about 10C warmer in the sunshine.