Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

[Purga]

GME 12z looking decidedly wet & windy

 

Chilly but no snow apart from mountains etc.

[fergieweather]

Unless MOGREPS is showing something completely different I'm not sure how the MO could have any confidence in a 'return to mild' any time soon with D10 ensemble means like these:

 

This supposed 'return to mild' phraseology seems to have crept-in lately to some posts (perhaps misinterpretation of the term 'zonal' regarding upper patterns, and/or people assuming the words 'zonal' and 'mild', or 'westerly' and 'mild' are somehow synonymous: they are not). The UKMO have at no time in recent 6-15d forecasts indicated 'mild' temperatures in the forseeable. Average for some, yes. But it's late January and by definition, that's NOT mild.

 

The phase through which the easterly regime of next week ultimately later gives-way to Atlantic (weak) mobility has already been flagged as open to great uncertainty (refer to my post yesterday citing the Dep. Chief on that very issue, and the high level of entropy that was exhibited in analysis yesterday re days 8-9). It could be manifested Friday; or maybe not until after next weekend. Or perhaps not at all in an immediately marked sense.

 

The midnight suites have merely compounded that difficulty and so quite understandably, Exeter are leaning away from being too prescriptive on the timing and net result of any swing back to a westerly regime. The latest comments from the Dep. Chief explains very concisely why this uncertainty is currently apparent:

 

"....(a) return to a more W’ly regime will be awkward and unreliable given many eps members show upper patterns with cut off vortices over the UK. This would steer low pressure systems S and allow for renewed cold conditions from the east at times. We are happy... (he refers to UKMO forecast assessment, as it stands today) .... with the overall unsettled signal but with lots of variation in the members, confidence in details will be extremely low."

 

With this in mind - and ahead of whatever the 12z suites offer - can we please exercise caution in misrepresenting the UKMO view re anything 'mild'. They are not saying anything of the sort. Cheers...

[Staffordshire]

This will be the most crucial set of 12z's of the winter so far, we need the trend to continue if we want the cold and snow, must say I'm a bit afraid to look at what it will bring but with the snow yesterday in Northern England maybe it could be a bit less marginal than we thought come next week

[shaky]

Right am too nervous to look at the 12zs so can anyone give an insight of what's going on so far although I know it early days?

[nick sussex]

Oh the tension, its like waiting for the Eurovision song contest results! lol Not much change so far at T54hrs , a smidge better upstream and the pattern a touch further west.

 

For coldies you want that low to fill as quickly as possible.

Edited January 24, 2014 by nick sussex

[Panayiotis]

GME 12z looking decidedly wet & windy

 

 

Chilly but no snow apart from mountains etc.

You post those charts without the 850hPa temps and say snow is only possible for mountains?

Charts above will allow snow to fall at lower levels, especially areas under -6C uppers. 

GFS shows -4C uppers for the same time, but I feel that these will become colder as we head towards Monday as the more high res models bring -5C/-6C uppers:

Edited January 24, 2014 by Panayiotis

[Mucka]

Reading between the lines and being diplomatic, I think it is fair to say there has been a some movement in the MetO thinking toward things being a little more uncertain regarding the extent of any Westerly incursions from next Friday despite the 6/15 dayer describing a return to Westerly winds at that time and like the rest of us they will be on a watching brief. No way I would want to make a call for next weekend at this stage but as a forecaster you don't have that same luxury as we enthusiasts.

 

I expect GFS will be its usual progressive self and I will be much more interested in how the other models shape up. Fingers crossed.

[TSNWK]

I think GFS is a little further west with pattern around 108 little steps and all that.

[shaky]

I think GFS is a little further west with pattern around 108 little steps and all that.

hey as long as it similar to the last run all good!!what we dont want is further east!!!!

[fergieweather]

Seeking attention and must be the only one with a firm answer as to what next week will bring.

 

Maybe they should take over the Chief Forecasters role at the Met Office as they are certainly not as bullish as that post.

 

... and having just chatted to an Exeter colleague asking if I'd seen the EC ENS for later next week/weekend, the talk is of absolutely the opposite re 'disappointment' for coldies. Enough said.

[KyleHenry]

The GFS 12z @ 120 hours precipitation chart shows what Mr Murr was talking about

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=120&mode=2

The snow moving in from the North Sea .

But as the MO and Ian Ferguson state correctly it will just be short lived before temps rise again, close to or around average for late Jan early Feb.

What comes after in 10 to 15 days is where we hope for a significant blocking scenario to the UK. Nick Sussex will be first to point out when and if it will occur.

It's all good, first taste of winter proper since last April 2013

Edited January 24, 2014 by KyleHenry

[R.P. McMurphy]

... and having just chatted to an Exeter colleague asking if I'd seen the EC ENS for later next week/weekend, the talk is of absolutely the opposite re 'disappointment' for coldies. Enough said.

 

I think I just weed.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

You post those charts without the 850hPa temps and say snow is only possible for mountains?

Charts above will allow snow to fall at lower levels, especially areas under -6C uppers. 

GFS shows -4C uppers for the same time, but I feel that these will become colder as we head towards Monday as the more high res models bring -5C/-6C uppers:

I have to admit that I was puzzled by purga's comments without even looking at 850's , to be honest he's on a wind up a lot of the time so I never take him seriously because he says 90% of what he says for a reaction .

On to the models , Sunday night into Monday is looking exciting and has done for days now , it's the first time a westerly hasn't lost its cold uppers as the time gets closer of a long time. Let's not forget the Atlantic sea is warmer than the North Sea , maybe sitting at around 8-11c? (Don't know exact) but with uppers of -5/6 that will make it things very turbulent in the west of the country coming well inland with thunder snow a distinct possibility I expect .

... and having just chatted to an Exeter colleague asking if I'd seen the EC ENS for later next week/weekend, the talk is of absolutely the opposite re 'disappointment' for coldies. Enough said.

I no I'm been dumb hear but do you mean very cold and snowy that will make this place erupt?????!

[Bobby]

A flatter, less amplifed GFS at day 5. 06z, 12z:

 

[LomondSnowstorm]

This supposed 'return to mild' phraseology seems to have crept-in lately to some posts (perhaps misinterpretation of the term 'zonal' regarding upper patterns, and/or people assuming the words 'zonal' and 'mild', or 'westerly' and 'mild' are somehow synonymous: they are not). The UKMO have at no time in recent 6-15d forecasts indicated 'mild' temperatures in the forseeable. Average for some, yes. But it's late January and by definition, that's NOT mild. The phase through which the easterly regime of next week ultimately later gives-way to Atlantic (weak) mobility has already been flagged as open to great uncertainty (refer to my post yesterday citing the Dep. Chief on that very issue, and the high level of entropy that was exhibited in analysis yesterday re days 8-9). It could be manifested Friday; or maybe not until after next weekend. Or perhaps not at all in an immediately marked sense. The midnight suites have merely compounded that difficulty and so quite understandably, Exeter are leaning away from being too prescriptive on the timing and net result of any swing back to a westerly regime. The latest comments from the Dep. Chief explains very concisely why this uncertainty is currently apparent: "....(a) return to a more W’ly regime will be awkward and unreliable given many eps members show upper patterns with cut off vortices over the UK. This would steer low pressure systems S and allow for renewed cold conditions from the east at times. We are happy... (he refers to UKMO forecast assessment, as it stands today) .... with the overall unsettled signal but with lots of variation in the members, confidence in details will be extremely low." With this in mind - and ahead of whatever the 12z suites offer - can we please exercise caution in misrepresenting the UKMO view re anything 'mild'. They are not saying anything of the sort. Cheers...

Apologies Ian, I think I worded my initial post poorly in that I was responding to a post on the MT referring to the MO calling for 'mild' rather than saying that the MO actually had used that particular wording (I understood the actual Met Office outlook to be more 'mobile'/westerly' with temperatures near or a bit below average and I broadly agree with that as well). I also understand that the main concern at the moment is, rightly, the flooding situation and that this is likely to cause more impact, certainly in the immediate term, than any cold. I also understand the need for the Met Office to be cautious on these matters, particularly in light of the propensity of mid-market rags to sensationalise even the slightest hint of cold in the outlook, and also because, at D7 onwards, there's always likely to be considerable uncertainty. I really enjoy reading your valuable insights on the thread and again apologies for any misunderstanding caused by my post RE the Met Office outlook.

[TSNWK]

Not sure I'm liking it around 132, looks a little flatter..... Christ I wish it was easy.... But it all part of the fun I guess..

Edited January 24, 2014 by TSNWK

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012412/gfsnh-0-132.png?12

 

Use this link or Bobbys chart above- note the POINT of high pressure over NE england-

 

should be good for a slider even though its the GFS

S

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

I think I just weed.

Hahahahahaha that's hilarious lol , I'm sat in my shop on my tod laughing my head off. I'm about to give the mrs a nervous breakdown next wk lol lets hope she moves out so I can have all lot round mine for a good old sledge session/drinking sess lol

[Bobby]

Well the GFS 12z is exactly what we don't want to see the other models trending towards later in terms of cold and snow, very different to UKMO and ECM in a bad way.

[shaky]

Ukmo 12z keeping us waitin today!!normally it's out to 120 hours by now!!

[Bobby]

Shall be interesting to see what they show.

[fergieweather]

Apologies Ian, (etc)

 No worries! Not a problem - just needed to clarify where we are at now, before things go further with the discussion - cheers!

[nick sussex]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012412/gfsnh-0-132.png?12

 

Use this link or Bobbys chart above- note the POINT of high pressure over NE england-

 

should be good for a slider even though its the GFS

S

Lol, are you thinking what I'm thinking Steve? A February many years ago! it could get ugly in here if that's the case!

[mickpips]

The GFS 850hpa temps are much less pronounced on the 12z compared to the 06z which had almost the whole country under -5 by T144

Edited January 24, 2014 by mickpips

[Radiating Dendrite]

Lol, are you thinking what I'm thinking Steve? A February many years ago! it could get ugly in here if that's the case!

enlighten us?