Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

[IDO]

The GFS op looks to be in a small cold cluster for D7-10 when those snowy charts show up:

 

 

 

It then becomes a milder outlier, so specifics wise of limited use, though synoptically upto D10 v.good.

 

The T240  GEFS mean highlight the propensity of poor members: 

 

A small cluster supporting the repeating diving undercutting lows but more are stormy, zonal rain-fest. Also a trend for HP to move closer to the UK.

 

By T300 (FWIW):  

 

Most members split between higher pressure or zonal.

[TSNWK]

t144 from UKMO is out, high pressure trying to build with it comes the colder air to our east

 

 

Closer look at the 850's

 

 

Synoptic wise that chart is a thing of beauty in my view, I'm I being a little greedy when I checked out the 850's and thought " Oh is that it " when I saw  a range of -6 -> -8 over the UK. I was hoping for a little more to kick of some convection for Thames Streamer North West Kent...

[shaky]

Well a half decent UKMO @ 144hrs then.

Pity we can't see the precip charts but I would imagine some decent snow showers across the east , SE, south etc.

half decent?mate thats a beaut of a chart!!scandi high stronger than the gfs and colder uppers aswell!!undercut looking very likely on that run!!

[Long haul to mild]

Well, the "drip drip drip" to cold goes on, which is great to see. We thankfully still haven't had that amazing op run* that blows expectations so sky high but is ultimately unsustainable. This way, every run gets that little bit better, everything backs West a bit, any Atlantic return is delayed, and there are more blocking signals in FI.

 

I am convinced that the best cold and snowy spells "sneak up" on us and it's far better to lower expectations then exceed them than raise them so high that disappointment inevitably follows.

 

What will the ECM bring us? Another notch up the scale of wintriness hopefully

 

*Edit: just seen UKMO at 144, which gets close to being that stellar run!!

Edited January 24, 2014 by Long haul to mild

[winterof79]

Ladies and Gentlemen,i do believe the Russians have forgotten to close the freezer door.

[Stuie]

Well it looks like the ECM will have to show one of "it`s coming" charts to nudge out the UKMO. Let`s roll....

[Jason H]

Look at the fetch on that Easterly on the UKMO 144. Cold. Shame it's too far out to take as reliable, but the trends look great. Awaiting the ECM with interest.

[shaky]

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012412/UN144-21.GIF?24-18 Chart of the WInter from the UKMO Deep cold coming west- see where the 1040 is in central europe- those thicknesses look to be around 500 DAM .... BRRRRRRRR  S

am pretty certain steve that by then most of the uk will be covered in snow and those freezing 850s will make sure that the snow sticks around!!

[tight isobar]

Eyes down 12zecm.let hope the bingo caller gives us the jackpot on this set.

[Purga]

Translation from Purgaspeak to NWspeak:

 

Half decent = 'freakin brilliant!!'

 

[Bristawl Si]

Is there a 'danger' that if the HP builds too quickly and too strongly we'll end up just having a dry, v cold spell?

[Summer Sun]

Summer Sun, are those -8 temps over central and northern england an improvement by the UKMO?

 

Here is the 00z run

 

 

-8 850's a lot closer tonight than they were this morning so and the pressure favours some snow in places as well so all in all big improvements for coldies

[bluearmy]

not sure about ukmo t144. seems a bit progressive re the block but then i guess thats what can happen with a scandi ridge. we'll see what ecm makes of it but recent ops and ens have not been so bullish about such a clean scandi high with associated easterly. to be revisited in half an hour !

[DAVID SNOW]

Well, the "drip drip drip" to cold goes on, which is great to see. We thankfully still haven't had that amazing op run that blows expectations so sky high but is ultimately unsustainable. This way, every run gets that little bit better, everything backs West a bit, any Atlantic return is delayed, and there are more blocking signals in FI.

 

I am convinced that the best cold and snowy spells "sneak up" on us and it's far better to lower expectations then exceed them than raise them so high that disappointment inevitably follows.

 

What will the ECM bring us? Another notch up the scale of wintriness hopefully

Re your first sentence: Thats excluding the latest UKMO run then

[fergieweather]

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012412/UN144-21.GIF?24-18

 

Chart of the WInter from the UKMO

 

Deep cold coming west-

 

see where the 1040 is in central europe- those thicknesses look to be around 500 DAM .... BRRRRRRRR

 

 

S

 

Note more acute look to the trough, too.

All to play for if you are a cold aficianado.

Edited January 24, 2014 by fergieweather

[Purga]

UKMO ends with a lovely far fetched easterly wind, not too shabby that

Let's hope is a certainty!

 

PS: I do know what you really mean!

Edited January 24, 2014 by Purga

[easton888]

Here is the 00z run

 

 

-8 850's a lot closer tonight than they were this morning so and the pressure favours some snow in places as well so all in all big improvements for coldies

Cheers! Getting excited now

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Is there a 'danger' that if the HP builds too quickly and too strongly we'll end up just having a dry, v cold spell?

Apologies to the moderators for not including model analysis in this post, but I'd suggest that those on the Somerset Levels might see that as a wonderful prospect.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012412/UN144-21.GIF?24-18 Chart of the WInter from the UKMO Deep cold coming west- see where the 1040 is in central europe- those thicknesses look to be around 500 DAM .... BRRRRRRRR  S

Yes but just look at that deep low about to drop through the middle stopping the Azores from spoiling the fun , AKA snowmagedon next Saturday anyone?

[shaky]

Anything on the ecmwf?any better on than the ukmo in the earlier time frames?

[Fozfoster]

Wheres frosty?......i think hes passed out.

[Long haul to mild]

Re your first sentence: Thats excluding the latest UKMO run then

Haha, post duly edited! Typical that the T144 chart came out as I was typing it!!

[SMU]

Note more acute look to the trough, too.

All to play for if you are a cold aficianado.

 

Indeed.... Time to dust of your best Mr kettley suit from Feb 1996..... ( which I believe was rain in the SW, Dry here & around 20 cms in the middle ( wiltsure/hampshire etc- I distinctly remember him saying- theres heavy snow coming down in the Channel IS as well on that forecast- I have it on tape somewhere- )

 

Lets hope the ECM looks like the UKMO @ 144 & then progresses with the deep cold onto 168-

as a minimum I guess UKMO 168 would show -8c into England & -10/-12 into denmark etc..

 

 

fancy showing us the 168 tonight when it lands...

 

S

[Purga]

Anything on the ecmwf?any better on than the ukmo in the earlier time frames?

Out to 96hrs

Difficult to say if 'better' at this stage - others can comment better for sure.

[shaky]

Indeed.... Time to dust of your best Mr kettley suit from Feb 1996..... ( which I believe was rain in the SW, Dry here & around 20 cms in the middle ( wiltsure/hampshire etc- I distinctly remember him saying- theres heavy snow coming down in the Channel IS as well on that forecast- I have it on tape somewhere- ) Lets hope the ECM looks like the UKMO @ 144 & then progresses with the deep cold onto 168-as a minimum I guess UKMO 168 would show -8c into England & -10/-12 into denmark etc..  fancy showing us the 168 tonight when it lands... S

steve any comments on the ecm?