Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

[Stuie]

Anything on the ecmwf?any better on than the ukmo in the earlier time frames?

T96, take that.

[SMU]

Poor ECM @ 96- especially from the eastern end of the block. ( or shall I say not as good as UKMO)

 

All points west the same though- the UK stuck in the middle.

 

Less cold uppers from the ECM will be @ 144, but the deep cold wont be essential in the slider scenario...

S

Edited January 24, 2014 by Steve Murr

[snowice]

LOOKING GOOD AT 96H ECM

 

 

 

[tight isobar]

96, westward correct good, and atlantic door being slammed.

[cooling climate]

UKMO on its own tonight a t96 with the ECM and GFS almost identical.

[Purga]

Looks OK

The suspense!

[Captain Shortwave]

UKMO on its own tonight a t96 with the ECM and GFS almost identical.

To be fair the ecm is more of a middle ground with slightly better heights over the pole and a slightly more amplified Atlantic ridge which is more pronounced at day 5

GFS

[Weather-history]

UKMO on its own tonight a t96 with the ECM and GFS almost identical.

Is it on its own? Looks like GEM and JMA are siding with it? Edited January 24, 2014 by Weather-history

[bluearmy]

the ecm is very close to its op from yesterdays 12z run. to our east a little less good as steve has alluded.  good continuity though would be nice to advect some colder uppers into the mix

[MR EXTREMES]

Poor ECM @ 96- especially from the eastern end of the block. ( or shall I say not as good as UKMO)

 

All points west the same though- the UK stuck in the middle.

 

Less cold uppers from the ECM will be @ 144, but the deep cold wont be essential in the slider scenario...

S

so come on then steve do you think its possible that the models are over egging the cold because the ecm is looking like a downgrade and what happened the last time ecm downgraded and so did the rest and we ended up with sweet nothing,

 

im not convinced these nice charts are they really in the safe zone timeframe?.

[Joe Levy]

ECM at 120 hours

As SM pointed out, in a slider scenario, low 850hPa temps are not required for snow. Here we have low thicknesses and, with a continental feed, low dewpoints potentially as well

Edited January 24, 2014 by Joe Levy

[nick sussex]

The ECM lets the side down somewhat this evening, I'm not liking its block at T96hrs to the ne, there are some big differences between the models view of the block and so detail will be hard to pin down.

 

I hope the UKMO is the front runner here.The ECM probably will still go onto produce a slider but its just okay so far.

[Geordiesnow]

Probably won't surprise many but I can't get too carried away with what the models are showing, they are all looking underwhelming too me unlike you like chilly dull and wet weather, I think the BBC online video sums it up really, a tricky situation but the emphasis being that whilst it will turn colder, it won't be significantly colder and snowfall could well be limited. 

 

The potential is there for colder weather with the blocking but with how the winter is going, we can't get it in the right places and we end up with a modest polar airflow. Unless of course there is some chance that upper air temps may be less of a factor with winds coming from the continent(and lets be honest, the continent does not look that cold) then I do struggle too see much snow potential at this current moment in time. 

 

ECM 120 hours, no cold there with an ESE'ly flow, not a chart I am craving at all. 

[A.J]

Hmm......very interesting model outputs, and I've come to the following conclusion..

 

let's celebrate the chilly looking charts with a suitably named beverage or two....... I give you

 

 

 

 

 

[Whether Idle]

ECM is the most reliable model as we know so a time for keeping expectations under control and hoping the UKMO "has it."

[The Eagle]

A bit disappointing on the ECM especially given this morning's ensembles. 

[tight isobar]

Lets get these uppers on board ,, further westward correct required.

[SMU]

My comment was aimed at the fact that the ECM has been poor for the last 3 days - always top of the cluster on temps & way off the UKMO

 

however both scenarios are plausable .....

 

Its just annoying there no harmony between the 2-

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012412/ECH1-144.GIF?24-0

 

Not what we want to see- where has the ECM plucked that from.

S

 

MAYBE just MAYBE the upgrade that the ECM underwent recently has ruined it in blocking scenarios- it looks WELL out of kilter tonight- although to tease us more- in kilter with the malligned GFS...

Edited January 24, 2014 by Steve Murr

[snowice]

UPPERS OK AT 144HRS

 

 

 

 

[MR EXTREMES]

1050 scandi heights come on we need this more north and west its looking worrying from the ecm for the cold crew.

[Long haul to mild]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012412/ECM1-144.GIF?24-0

 

In the context of the winter so far, ECM 144 tonight is a great chart.

 

In the context of the UKMO 144 chart, the ECM is poor tonight.

 

So much still to be decided, and as others have pointed out, the differences start at T96. Fascinating stuff.

[terrier]

So ukmo is out on its own tonight. Let's hope it's on the money or else I fear for this forum. But the ECM at t120 doesn't fill me with confidence. Must say though think the models will flip and flop over the weekend. But I would say a cold and snowy outbreak is far from been a done deal here.

[Boro Snow]

That chart looks ok to me, cant understand some of the posts

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

ECM is the most reliable model as we know so a time for keeping expectations under control and hoping the UKMO "has it."

 

About as reliable as the Honda Civic but sadly comes with less 'as standard' features than my old '99 plate Ford Fiesta!

Edited January 24, 2014 by CreweCold

[TEITS]

To save you all waiting - similar UKMO-GM from T+120 onwards. Signal for the colder entrainment is one with confidence now next week... how long it lasts, is not. More woes end of next week, re disruptive weather? It's got a bothersome look...

I can't resist by saying I was confident back on 15th Jan.

 

Rather premature to write the whole of Jan off just yet as +384 takes us to the 31st.

 

I always had a feeling the first attempt at an E,ly would fail. However the 2nd attempt would be more succesful and I shall stick with my instincts and suggest the last week of Jan is when winter will finally arrive. Im not expecting the period of W,lys to last very long before we see more trough disruption but this time successfully moving SE allowing colder NE/E,lys to arrive.

Fantastic UKMO which continues to be very consistent.