Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

[Captain Shortwave]

Yes,they don't paint a pretty picture actually

 

To be fair the Berlin temps are at around -10C in the first few days, the only way is probably up  (Warsaw even lower)

looks chilly though even far out which puts us right on the rain/snow border. Many nerves wil be shred over the next few days, unless the UKMO is right and we go into the freezer.

Edited January 24, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Geordiesnow]

I think personally the models are perhaps firming up on the overall pattern that whilst next week it will turn a little bit colder, I think anything in terms of significant snowfall looks quite limited and will be reserved to higher ground in the North, with above average SST's and not that significant cold upper air temps then the charts for next week don't exactly scream snow potential too me. 

 

I also think hints of the Atlantic coming back into play is quite strong too but as per ever, we just got to wait and see on that one but if a brief chilly but not significantly cold easterly is getting people ramping then that just show what a awful winter it has been for cold. 

[karlos1983]

Yes,they don't paint a pretty picture actually

 

 

Must be said they are both at the top end of mild though, and as Captain SW staes, they begin blimmin cold

Edited January 24, 2014 by karlos1983

[Jason M]

Given the Berlin and Warsaw ECM ens graphs, I am surprised the day 5 fax is left unmodified. There is no sign of a deeply cold easterly on them.

I think the ramping got really out of hand earlier. Its a lot calmer on here now.Have the charts ever really showed a deeply cold easterly? I've seen only a handful of charts in recent days showing anything like the apocalyptic cold spell being predicted on here.I still think something good could evolve further down the line but I just don't see it next week.Edit: By day six on GEFS a good few easterlies showing but nothing overly cold Edited January 24, 2014 by Jason M

[bluearmy]

You are missing the point on the those ens. We are going to be under a cold nw European trough . The less cold air is progged to push up into Poland by the circulation. it doesn't make much difference to us unless you are expecting a long fetch easterly. my point is that those ens don't show the ukmo solution at all. The ukmo evolution just looks wrong. It did earlier on and it looks even more wrong now. Hence my surprise at the faxes,

[Ice Day]

I think the ramping got really out of hand earlier. Its a lot calmer on here now.Have the charts ever really showed a deeply cold easterly? I've seen only a handful of charts in recent days showing anything like some of the apocalyptic cold spell being predicted on here.I still think something good could evolve further down the line but I just don't see it next week.

 

I have to agree with this.  On the face of it some of the charts have appeared borderline epic, however the lack of any real cold on the near continent is notable for late January.  But the trend overall is still encouraging; looks like the pattern over the last couple of months has finally ended!

[Geordiesnow]

The ECM was far from hideous. Less good than what the UKMO was offering, but not hideous at all.

 

ECM is a hidious run, pure and simple.  deep low pressure systems stalling over the UK against the block to the NE and very little cold air toppling over the top of the lows so all we get is a lot of cold rain surely? And that is not good news for the flood hit areas for sure or anyone who hates cold rain! 

 

The 192 hour chart is just a sight for sore eyes really, what is good about that!? Thankfully it is very unlikely to happen like that but I think people need to grasp the idea the charts we are seeing are not exactly great for cold and they are certainly not great for those who are suffering with flooding! Only the UKMO is the exception as we get a drier chillier easterly wind but even this could only be a brief respite? 

[tight isobar]

Shoot me down in flames, if so. Gfs operations whether support by its mean support cannot be at present relevant ill take reliva dissemination. But its rolling evolutionary, leaves much to be desired. I, ll eat my words should output be differential tmrw.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

You are missing the point on the those ens. We are going to be under a cold nw European trough . The less cold air is progged to push up into Poland by the circulation. it doesn't make much difference to us unless you are expecting a long fetch easterly. my point is that those ens don't show the ukmo solution at all. The ukmo evolution just looks wrong. It did earlier on and it looks even more wrong now. Hence my surprise at the faxes,

Unfortunately nick i agree with you.

Its pretty apparent now UKMO DET runs today are/were leading us up the garden path.

That said,i'd take my chances with the 12z ecm

[draztik]

I'm impressed by that 11/15 dayer but I suspect that's because I realise we dont live in Scandinavia!nice to see th chart posted to illustrate my earlier post.

 

You interpret that chart with potential? As in, what comes after? Because all I see, is a lot of rain, and a westerly flow... akin to the ec32, in fact... v. similar given the time period. And the EC32 made nothing of the 'northern' block thereafter.

[Dean E]

I believe any return to Atlantic driven setup is unlikely in the short term if the cold manages to arrive out our shores...

 

As for Berlin and Warsaw, 850's  sub -5c uppers are starting to get washed out with a SE'ly windflow bringing in milder weather here (relatively). 

 

 

Again, just one model and one scenario. Personally, anything past Sunday is FI in my eyes.

[nick sussex]

I think the ramping got really out of hand earlier. Its a lot calmer on here now.Have the charts ever really showed a deeply cold easterly? I've seen only a handful of charts in recent days showing anything like the apocalyptic cold spell being predicted on here.I still think something good could evolve further down the line but I just don't see it next week.Edit: By day six on GEFS a good few easterlies showing but nothing overly cold

I think the ECM brought things back to earth sadly, not a bad run in the context of the winter so far but it could have been better. I think a deep cold easterly showing up in  the next ten days is unlikely even with the UKMO output the UK is at the end of the line for that and low pressure is likely to want to move in after T144hrs, the question across all the model suites is how much trough disruption occurs as that happens.

 

I think too much emphasis has been laid on an easterly when in reality the more likely scenario is still a cold continental flow but not the deep cold snow showers type set up, if you're not going to get the deep easterly then I think its better to at least have low pressure trying to move in as at least then theres a chance for some snow,it is of course a bit more high risk but if the trough disrupts favourably then it could bring some decent snow.

 

So that IMO is the issue going forward, does the trough disruption happen favourably to keep the UK in the cold after the first Atlantic attempt.

[Captain Shortwave]

You interpret that chart with potential? As in, what comes after? Because all I see, is a lot of rain, and a westerly flow... akin to the ec32, in fact... v. similar given the time period. And the EC32 made nothing of the 'northern' block thereafter.

I think it's best to interpret it as a fine line between what we want (coldies) and what we despise (a heck of a lot of rain). Will temperature be below average, almost certainly beyond the next couple of days, but will it be cold enough for snow? Who knows at the moment. But in the end what else have we got. With low pressure moving south east through the UK,  then some places will end up with westerlies, whilst others end up with colder easterlies or northerlies and I would expect some sort of cold pool to tap into to our north east. Just a case where that magic line ends up to be honest.

^As usual Nick S summed things up better than me

Edited January 24, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Jason M]

You interpret that chart with potential? As in, what comes after? Because all I see, is a lot of rain, and a westerly flow... akin to the ec32, in fact... v. similar given the time period. And the EC32 made nothing of the 'northern' block thereafter.

 

 

I don't think were looking at conventional zonality. In fact I expect (probably like many others in here) a repeating pattern of lows diving SE across us. There will be other bites of the cherry but next weeks window looks to be closing.

 

That said, I still want to wait until the morning but METO looks more unlikely now.

[Jason M]

FWIW, this is the sort of chart I expect we will start to see for the week after next. No guarantees certainly, but from here things have real potential with a bit of good fortune.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=9&ech=264&mode=0&carte=0

 

 

Edit, better example

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=12&ech=264&mode=0&carte=0

Edited January 24, 2014 by Jason M

[draztik]

I don't think were looking at conventional zonality. In fact I expect (probably like many others in here) a repeating pattern of lows diving SE across us. There will be other bites of the cherry but next weeks window looks to be closing.

 

That said, I still want to wait until the morning but METO looks more unlikely now.

 

Looking at the mid term ensembles, I don't see the troughing aligning to that trajectory. They all have the hallmarking of a distinctly west to east flow. With any negative anomaly in Europe fading as we progress though Feb. It all depends on the block to our East, of course.

[shaky]

Anyone know when the 18z high resolution euro4 model comes out?

[karyo]

Yes, not a good end of the day.  I fear a day of downgrades tomorrow (I'm trying to tempt fate!)

Things are marginal as it is so even a slight downgrade will make it a non event for most of us!

 

Karyo

[karlos1983]

yes, it seems to have steam rolled out of control in here today with the ramping, swaying expectations to unrealistic really. snow was never really on the cards for me due to location(apart from maybe a flake in the rain on Monday morning), but I really don't care about that, just fascinating output right now, snow and deep cold for me would just be a bonus. Certainly somewhere is going to get a good dumping next week, and more opportunities lay ahead, I'm convinced of that now.

 

Few puzzle pieces falling in place for me this winter thanks to you lot, i.e. studying the ensembles, importance of the pattern upstream etc. so hopefully, although a frustrating winter, a fruitful one for me educationally. 

 

There would be some serious cold nights from that set up, look at the lines all the way from the canaries to Alaska, shame about the caveat.....

 

Edited January 24, 2014 by karlos1983

[bluearmy]

You interpret that chart with potential? As in, what comes after? Because all I see, is a lot of rain, and a westerly flow... akin to the ec32, in fact... v. similar given the time period. And the EC32 made nothing of the 'northern' block thereafter.

Draztik, you've been using these charts to show the atlantic coming through for the past three weeks. Where is it? As steve has posted, you are not using them properly. Slp mean charts are almost useless by the time you are into week 2 and the heights are heights, not wind direction. some very strange late evening stuff on here. i suggest you all go to bed and awake to more decent wintry nwp fayre in the morning.

[kumquat]

An Ode to Shannon

 

As is our wont on the Fair British Isles,

we find ourselves warmest in a pincer of cold. 

Couldn't vouch any better for our poor luck,

as we find ourselves delving within the tuck

‘tween a cold Scandi high and Norwesterly muck.

 

mud.. water.. ice..?

 

[karlos1983]

Draztik, you've been using these charts to show the atlantic coming through for the past three weeks. Where is it? As steve has posted, you are not using them properly. Slp mean charts are almost useless by the time you are into week 2 and the heights are heights, not wind direction.

some very strange late evening stuff on here. i suggest you all go to bed and awake to more decent wintry nwp fayre in the morning.

 

yes Dad  can i take a drink..

[Frosty.]

Even the classic cold spells of the past had conflicting ensemble signals before they occured , it's an emotional rollercoaster for coldies in the uk but I think our rotton luck so far this winter is about to change. We will have a clearer picture by 12z tomorrow evening.

[Bristawl Si]

Looking at the mid term ensembles, I don't see the troughing aligning to that trajectory. They all have the hallmarking of a distinctly west to east flow. With any negative anomaly in Europe fading as we progress though Feb. It all depends on the block to our East, of course.

But that "west to east flow" has some v cold air in its circulation, so it's not as straightforward as the normal west to east flow - i think Ian F alluded to that earlier today. Yes, today - things at Meto can't have swung that wildly in less than 24 hours surely!I'm nowhere near as expert as some on here but i feel there's been a gross over-reaction to this evening's model output.If the UK is on the borderline to something more wintry thru the next 7 to 10 days then i'm sure the *actual* dividing line between cold and less cold AND rain and snow will continue to fluctuate over the coming days (in the model outputs). Edited January 24, 2014 by Bristle boy

[Jason M]

yes Dad  can i take a drink..

 

No!

 

Too much drink was consumed earlier by too many and the hangover won't be pretty come the morning

 

Joking aside though, things are not bad tonight and we remain in the game over the next couple of weeks IMO.