Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

[Jason M]

Why can't we get this kind of reloading pattern when it comes to cold rather than just one or two days and that is when we get any cold at all?  Simply not fair.

All we need is for the earth to start spinning in the opposite direction :-)

[Bobby]

A swarm of 4 low pressures across the N Atlantic on GFS 12z. Looking very wet especially across southern parts

 

 

Rainfall accumulations over next 7 days (more on high ground)

 

Edited January 31, 2014 by Bobby

[Earth Wind and Snow]

Why can't we get this kind of reloading pattern when it comes to cold rather than just one or two days and that is when we get any cold at all?  Simply not fair.

In fairness in recent years, the weather seems to get stuck in a rut for long periods of time for whatever reason - mid December 2009 to mid January 2010 - cold and snowy, summer and autumn 2010 - wet, late november 2010 to late January 2011 - very cold (snowy in earlier period), summer 2011 - wet, autumn 2011 mild, winter 2011-2012 mostly mild and wet, summer 2012 - wet, late Feb to early April 2013 - cold wih snowfalls, summer 2013 - warm and often dry, autumn 2013 - wet and now winter 2013/2014 stormy & wet. 

 

I would wager a bet that when the pattern changes to whatever that will be - it will lock in for a while.

 

Ine the meantime I hope CC is right and we start to see some better charts showing up in the near future for a late winter / early spring cold spell with some snow - if not some spring warmth would be nice

 

EWS

[Tim Bland]

Nice warm Strat over Greenland in high res part of GFS

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=192&code=0&mode=10&carte=1

[damianslaw]

Models in strong agreement today - atlantic in full dominance.

 

I'm going to test myself and go back to the old days and not look at any models over the coming 3 weeks and let the weather play out in front of me.

 

Indeed I will not be viewing this thread after today until 21st February.

 

 

Just a feeling but on my return I'm expecting a change in fortunes at long last.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Nice warm Strat over Greenland in high res part of GFShttp://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=192&code=0&mode=10&carte=1

 

Yes, realistically some form of Greenland based blocking should be likely during February...though from the strat thread it seems that the trop response is lagging well behind the stratospheric developments.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Yet again, its like an endless freight train full of rain.. 

 

Not liking the look of that low coming up from Iberia vicinity next week. Its the likes of them that cause the major flooding with intense persistent rain. 2007 springs to mind. This is looking dreadful.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Spring comes early in FI of the 12z GFS

 

 

Edited January 31, 2014 by CreweCold

[Summer Sun]

Positive signs from this afternoons GFS with high pressure building for parts of the south at first then more widespread later good news for the flood hit south west if it does

 

 

An early taste of spring as well for some

 

 

The Atlantic does win out in the end but we do have hints of a very welcome break from Atlantic and things could even turn quite spring like for a time especially in the south with any sunshine

 

Edited January 31, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Tamara with regards to the vortex moving further west to central parts of Canada , I think this is starting to show the first signs of that .

As suppose to this we have for next week .

Now it actually goes Pete tong after that I thought we would see blocking ridge north and cut it off but it didn't. But is this maybe a straw to clutch with regards the vortex slipping west ?

Edited January 31, 2014 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Positive signs from this afternoons GFS with high pressure building for parts of the south at first then more widespread later good news for the flood hit south west if it does

 

 

An early taste of spring as well for some

 

 

The Atlantic does win out in the end but we do have hints of a break from Atlantic

You know what, I think Uncle Barty wants to party!! lol

[Tim Bland]

You know what, I think Uncle Barty wants to party!! lol

Not a true Bartlet and it's not for long.http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=372&mode=0 Let's hope the Strat warming will have more of an effect than is shown

[Tamara]

Tamara with regards to the vortex moving further west to central parts of Canada , I think this is starting to show the first signs of that .

image.jpg

As suppose to this we have for next week .

image.jpg

Now it actually goes Pete tong after that I thought we would see blocking ridge north and cut it off but it didn't. But is this maybe a straw to clutch with regards the vortex slipping west ?

The problem is that despite some favourable indicators for another split higher up the stratosphere, current stratospheric models keep indicating vortex energy close to Greenland and Canada and too much energy persisting to allow any ridging northwards into a more favourable position at that time towards mid February. Hence why I posted earlier that a pressure rise from the south would bring drier conditions there but unsettled weather likely to persist to the north west. We can't rely on individual operational outputs such as this one at this time to model vortex movements properly, and we are better to be guided by the stratospheric models this distance as a guide to where the vortex is likely to be. This can change of course, but there is no sign of anything towards a cold pattern happening at this time, despite some favourable poleward flux and better profiles indicated higher up the stratosphere.

 

On this basis I think we are waiting some time yet to see any lagged benefits from ongoing warming with plenty of cold zonal anomalies (westerly energy) still to flush out through the troposphere first.

 

Its a case of watching and waiting whilst February begins, and then ticks by with the rain and wind continuing for at least the foresseable unfortunately.

 

@ to those looking at those GFS stratosphere charts - they represent the top of the stratosphere - the opposite end to the trospospheric surface. What is shown there will not influence the surface synoptic charts for the same time at all in any way

Edited January 31, 2014 by Tamara תָּמָר

[Captain Shortwave]

Not a true Bartlet and it's not for long.http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=372&mode=0 Let's hope the Strat warming will have more of an effect than is shown

True, GEM on the other hand...

7

rock solid Euro high, frankly at this point I would take it just so it would stop raining in southern areas.

850s of 16C in Barcelona on this chart, *casually books Ryanair ticket to Barcelona* 

Edited January 31, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[cooling climate]

 

I have to say you have been singing from this hymn sheet for days now and I admire your predictions and also hope they are right

Thanks for remaining positive when all others are falling away.

I know lol but I seriously think there will be much more of a tropospheric response

than what the models are showing at present.The GFS is all over the place in how it

is handling the movement of segments of vortices and as such its output could be

seriously flawed. I would expect to see the vortex move further west over Canada

due to the forcing from the wave 2.

Of course I could be completely wrong here but I just do not buy what the models are

showing.Again I could be misjudging the tropospheric lag effect but with a + QBO

I would expect to see a quicker response.

[Summer Sun]

well well well GFS and GEM both hinting at a euro high for t240 ridges up enough to enable the south to become drier

 

GFS

 

 

GEM

 

 

I wonder if ECM will pick up on this we'll find out in 90 minutes maybe just maybe there is some light at the end of a very long tunnel

 

Edited January 31, 2014 by Summer Sun

[picog]

Nice warm Strat over Greenland in high res part of GFShttp://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=192&code=0&mode=10&carte=1

That's some big warm up! And that chart is just 8 days away.Edit: Just read some other posts saying about the warmth not propagating to the trop. Oh well ... Edited January 31, 2014 by picog

[PolarWarsaw]

Forgive me if I don't get excited about a Euro High or uncle Barty coming for a visit in a winter that hasn't seen more than 2-3 frosts in early February. Dreadful output continues for cold weather. If the SW is going to dry out, let it be in the form of something very cold and dry. Spring is for spring, IE mid April onwards, wishing for it now is like wishing for autumn in early July.

Edited January 31, 2014 by PolarWarsaw

[Bobby]

Some hints of a pressure rise from the S into mid-Feb but nothing substantial on the GEFS 12z

 

I challenge you to find a worse February chart that than this +192 mean!

 

Edited January 31, 2014 by Bobby

[Tim Bland]

Desperate times cause for desperate measures....

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=798&code=0&carte=0&mode=0&run=10

[CLH the red dragon]

Forgive me if I don't get excited about a Euro High or uncle Barty coming for a visit in a winter that hasn't seen more than 2-3 frosts in early February. Dreadful output continues for cold weather. If the SW is going to dry out, let it be in the form of something very cold and dry. Spring is for spring, IE mid April onwards, wishing for it now is like wishing for autumn in early July.

The residents of the SW and Wales simply want dry. Be that mild or cold. Just dry. No-one who is blighted by the misery of flooding cares about the form it takes. If it has to be a Bartlett and raging high pressure with double digits then we'll take Spring. 

[draztik]

The day 10-15 Temp anomaly-GEFS12z, shows the continent under a strong positive anomaly. Hard to believe this is a chart for the middle of February.

 

[Summer Sun]

Out to t144 on ECM and so far no change with one low pressure system after another lining up

 

[Bobby]

ECM deepens the LP to the SW on Thursday a lot more than UKMO and GFS. Could be a problematic one this as it's likely to carry a lot of moisture

 

 

Edited January 31, 2014 by Bobby

[Captain Shortwave]

Utterly depressing sight really

The energy from the Siberian vortex looks forecast to be fully transferred to the Canadian lobe. Which leaves us right in the firing line for more wet and windy weather whilst a good part of Russia eastwards to the bearing strait will be under a huge developing blocking high.

The Siberian block is well supported by its own ensembles

What else is there to say really. 

Edited January 31, 2014 by Captain shortwave