Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

[Nick F]

looks likely the untied states are possibly going to have the coldest winter in many years.

im still convinced of second week of feb for a change.

 

Not all of the US, only the eastern half. Western half has been bathing in warm sunshine and extreme drought.

 

 

Not much to say wrt to the models, more weather misery on the way with GFS showing 40-70mm over next 7 days across western areas - orographic enhancement probably taking totals well in excess of this, and there's not just the threat from inland watercourses overflowing but also the threat from coastal flooding in the west.

 

Chance of some snow over the Welsh Mountains and SW Moors tomorrow morning , as well as hills of N England and Scotland, as the freezing levels lower from the west and trains of showers pack in on the increasingly strong westerly wind - which looks like gusting 60-70mph across western areas. Could be blizzard conditions over higher routes in the west.

 

Looks like northern hills will profit from some snowfall over the coming days though, good news for the Scottish ski industry.

Edited January 31, 2014 by Nick F

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Just for fun . . .go on then !

[bluearmy]

Just for fun . . .go on then !

image.jpg

we were talking about these secondary depressions rotating around the main system. again, over higher gorund favoured for some possible surprises

[Ali1977]

The GFS FI has potential, prob be different next run however, but that high brings drier weather, then a possible Easterly!!!

[bluearmy]

interesting end to gfs fi. low res gfs has begun to throw up the azores ridge. it is possible that this could be the catalyst for a renewed scandi high around mid month

[fergieweather]

the ukmo 00z run is not far from a  snowy run days 4 and 5. again, the lack of cold across the channel and any embedded cold over here will mean its cold and wet rather than white but i suspect over the higher ground, there could be some decent cover for a time.

As UKMO say, the 00z GM "barely falls within ensemble spread" for d4-5 and has been heavily modified. Some snow on northern hills but the key focus is on growing likelihood of another significantly wet and windy spell. There's potential for issues not dissimilar to those of late Dec... being very closely watched.

[snowmadchrisuk]

interesting end to gfs fi. low res gfs has begun to throw up the azores ridge. it is possible that this could be the catalyst for a renewed scandi high around mid month

 

A straw to clutch at there, as it looks like low height's could be forming underneath it, Still a very long way out, but if the Strat is going to have any effect we need to start seeing these sort of charts in deep FI . 

[EML Network]

The models all seem to want to keep the block out to the East and continue the Atlantic Low pressure machine gun firing at us.

 

The reasult is that the UK looks to be stuck just inside the Atltantic sector, with the Lows simply dumping their contents over us.

 

With Feb normally being a month where the Atlantic has a lull and with March and April tending to be wetter months, one does wonder what will happen if this continues into April.

 

 

[summer blizzard]

As UKMO say, the 00z GM "barely falls within ensemble spread" for d4-5 and has been heavily modified. Some snow on northern hills but the key focus is on growing likelihood of another significantly wet and windy spell. There's potential for issues not dissimilar to those of late Dec... being very closely watched.

 

Are there any signs from your long range models that high pressure will build, even to over the south east of the UK.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Shockingly poor runs again! Cannot wait until we get them storm porn charts rolling in, then Frosty can get back to his cheery awesome self!

 

Look at that little super storm ECM wants to throw at us at 240hrs :O

Edited January 31, 2014 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[bluearmy]

As UKMO say, the 00z GM "barely falls within ensemble spread" for d4-5 and has been heavily modified. Some snow on northern hills but the key focus is on growing likelihood of another significantly wet and windy spell. There's potential for issues not dissimilar to those of late Dec... being very closely watched.

 

i presume exeter's forward guidance contributed to the government repsonse this week ian?  we can only hope that as per previous government responses (be it to drought, flood, or snow), their introduction brought a sudden end to the issue (often contrary to forward model guidance as i recall). 

Edited January 31, 2014 by bluearmy

[summer blizzard]

GFS6z finally turns the tap off.. on the 13th Feb.

 

[Bobby]

The various ensemble means at day +10

 

ECM ens   NAEFS   GEFS   GEM

 

Same old picture, our weather being dominated by a deep trough to our W/NW bringing wet and windy cyclonic south westerlies over the UK. GEFS has the main trough shifting to our North however (though shifting back to our NW later and still looking strong with signs of pressure build to S)

 

Edited January 31, 2014 by Bobby

[Bobby]

[Summer Sun]

GFS ensemble show the south may see some longer gaps in the rain as the low pressure systems move further north

 

[draztik]

There are still signs of heights ridging up from the S on the EC32 during latter stages, but they appear somewhat watered down from last update. Troughing still prevalent to the NW; so on the face of it, wettest further N, driest in the S & SE seems to be the indication.

As for GEFS, improvements in the ens as we approach mid month, slight ridging from the S should see improvements in the Southern counties, in terms of drier weather. While the N stays relatively unsettled. In terms of temperature, cold conditions remain at a premium this morning mid term.

Edited January 31, 2014 by draztik

[Bobby]

There are still signs of heights ridging up from the S on the EC32 during latter stages, but they appear somewhat watered down from last update. Troughing still prevalent to the NW; so on the face of it, wettest further N, driest in the S & SE seems to be the indication.

As for GEFS, improvements in the ens as we approach mid month, slight ridging from the S should see improvements in the Southern counties, in terms of drier weather. While the N stays relatively unsettled. In terms of temperature, cold conditions remain at a premium this morning mid term.

 

NAEFS not quite as keen as GEFS on the pressure rise, at runs end:

 

Edited January 31, 2014 by Bobby

[Jason M]

I suspect just after mid month we will end up somewhere like this.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=17&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

Tamara was pushing this or similar although reading her recent posts she seems a little less optimistic. I still think there is a chance though (maybe less than 25%) of something dramatic later though Feb. In some ways the chart above illustrates both the opportunity and the more probable result as on this ensemble run I suspect the cold air would end up over Greece as per normal. However the current pattern will inevitably force warmth a long way north and as we all know that can lead to HLB down the line.

I don't buy the PV domination until March theory. We will either end up with warmth and high pressure or a cold easterly. An early spring is clearly the form horse but I think one further roll of the dice will be permitted after mid month.

[draztik]

NAEFS not quite as keen as GEFS on the pressure rise, at runs end: 

yep, tbh - its hard looking at a chart like that and realising its 16 days away. Hardly fills you with confidence. While we see positives emerging from the ens, ie drier conditions for flooded areas in the S, the improvements are slow... and shown to be a long way out. So usual caveats apply! We can hope these improvements indicated gain momentum.

[Tamara]

I suspect just after mid month we will end up somewhere like this.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=17&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

Tamara was pushing this or similar although reading her recent posts she seems a little less optimistic. I still think there is a chance though (maybe less than 25%) of something dramatic later though Feb. In some ways the chart above illustrates both the opportunity and the more probable result as on this ensemble run I suspect the cold air would end up over Greece as per normal. However the current pattern will inevitably force warmth a long way north and as we all know that can lead to HLB down the line.

I don't buy the PV domination until March theory. We will either end up with warmth and high pressure or a cold easterly. An early spring is clearly the form horse but I think one further roll of the dice will be permitted after mid month.

Yes well the basis for those thoughts were more based back to a week and more since when there was still hope that the heights to the NE and the minor splitting of the vortex might allow better success and progress of trough disruption stage 2 as I called it back then to lead to something colder for longer  This being some kind of reward/end product to the (apparent) momentum of that long sequence of attempts to get low pressure into Europe on the basis of the block to the NE holding firm for as long as it did and causing such uncertainty in the models and ensembles for a considerable time. Its proved a virtual wind-up of course by the models and data to hand, and time has told us that the 'event' lasted barely 36 hrs period and failed to overpeak barely a hill of beans and a splodge of sleet for a few away from some high hill and mountain tops where a slush fest was achievable for a time.

 

Alas, the Canadian vortex, as we all know, has proved too much and the re-energising of it is now clearly shown to the full in the current modelling - and to the point that the heights to the NE are finally blown out and the cold pooling potential of the last couple of weeks well and truly gone. We have surely lost the maximum cold potential of the winter - time is not on our side and synoptics do not favour a quick re-build with the jet stream making further inroads into NE Europe and already parts of north eastern Germany (just f.e) are starting to thaw out as we post on here today

 

Its bad enough as it is here in the UK, but next week looks set to worsen further ( is it possible to do this !?), as the re-vitalised jet streak aims a barrel at us from NE Canada and Greenland that looks determined to try and produce conditions to emulate the festive disruption.  Some worrying looking secondary lows developing, deepening rapidly and swinging around the embedded upper trough in the atlantic. These need to be watched over the weekend and into next week. Stomy autumn/early winter in February - dreadful.

 

The background stratospheric signals rumble on of course, and various permutations (straws) have been rummaged around in the last day or two as to where this could eventually lead (guilty as charged) but any cold pattern looks a very long way off and the only light at the end of the tunnel to these hideous surface conditions comes in the form of a pressure rise from the south just beyond the 10 day-ish period which might dry things up in the south but perhaps little help for those further north and west as the upper trough is still very close by.

 

Any further thoughts of Scandinavian High pressure evolving out of the Azores High ridging northwards and entering the John Holmes school of empirical rules for a renewed Scandinavian High pressure after mid month are not likely (at least at this time) I would think to be received with great appetite as long as, or, until that vortex is removed from its winter abode. Energy would surely still be too great from the upper low to the NW and a mid latitude/Euro High seems more likely at this time - unless there are sudden massive stratospheric developments of some kind. I'm sure some of us we will keep looking. The other alternative I examined yesterday was improved amplification from upstream into the atlantic, but this is very dependant on a significant extraction of the vortex from its semi permanent position and with data to hand is very low probabilty/possibility and as stated yesterday would be a long way off at this time if it was to happen

 

I'm never one to want to wish time in life away, but right now stuck in the thick of this ghastly 'winter' it is more and more compelling to want to fast forward to the longer days and evenings and start again with any cold weather watching later in the year.

[nick sussex]

It's unusual for NCEP to go into detail about events over Siberia but these comments mirror what we're seeing in the outputs:

 

UPPER PATTERN OVER RUSSIA WILL UNDERGO A LARGE SHIFT FROM NEGATIVEHEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER SIBERIA TO STRONG RIDGING... CENTERED OVEREASTERN ASIA BUT SPREADING WEST TO EAST FROM 120E TO THE DATELINETO 150W OVER ALASKA. WITH CONTINUED POSITIVE ANOMALIES ACROSS THENORTH POLE INTO NORTHEASTERN EUROPE.. THE REMAINING PART OF THENORTHERN HEMISPHERE... NAMELY... THE CONUS... WILL BE RATHER STUCKIN PROGRESSIVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CONTINENT IN A MUCH STORMIERPATTERN THAN THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

 

Essentially this ties in with the PV over there moving to Canada, if it had been the other way round then we would have seen some big changes over Europe, sadly that's not the case, higher pressure near the pole is supported by a reversal of the strat zonal winds up there.The only crumb of comfort with a little strawclutching is higher pressure extending into ne Europe.

 

If the main PV over Canada edges  a bit further to the nw then that might give an opportunity but for the timebeing we're in a stalemate situation.Essentially though any colder weather would have to come from the ne or east and we've seen just how difficult this has been to achieve.

Edited January 31, 2014 by nick sussex

[Man With Beard]

The only good thing I can see today has been the lack of complete agreement on the GEFS - here's the link for the T240 charts:

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=6&ech=240

 

Largely dominated by PV over Canada but a few of them go for PV over the Arctic (normally not good but at least it isn't over Canada!) and a few bring in a little more amplification, so perhaps some brief windows for something colder to get to the UK between systems even if only for a day.

 

But chances of a proper cold spell in the next 10 days still less than 1% in my book. Chances of needing a boat: much higher

[cooling climate]

Without having to make to long a rambling post I think it is almost certain

that the cold to come in February will be from the east/northeast especially

at first before becoming north/northeasterly in nature.

The GFS has started to hint at changes in its FI output but I think once this

strong warming is underway things will change in the NWP charts fairly quickly.

I would say we should be under a very cold east/northeasterly by the middle of

the month if not before and by the end of the weekend this should be prominant

in the GFS runs and should even appear towards the end of the ECM charts.

[Nick L]

Why can't we get this kind of reloading pattern when it comes to cold rather than just one or two days and that is when we get any cold at all?  Simply not fair.

 

Because unfortunately, our weather dominantly comes from the west. As a result, it's "easier" to get stuck in a rut with the status quo rather than be stuck in a recurring pattern that goes against the norm.

[Blizzardof82]

Without having to make to long a rambling post I think it is almost certain

that the cold to come in February will be from the east/northeast especially

at first before becoming north/northeasterly in nature.

The GFS has started to hint at changes in its FI output but I think once this

strong warming is underway things will change in the NWP charts fairly quickly.

I would say we should be under a very cold east/northeasterly by the middle of

the month if not before and by the end of the weekend this should be prominant

in the GFS runs and should even appear towards the end of the ECM charts.

I have to say you have been singing from this hymn sheet for days now and I admire your predictions and also hope they are right

Thanks for remaining positive when all others are falling away.