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Convective / Storm Discussion - 30th March 2014 onwards

Jane Louise

By Jane Louise
in Storms & Severe Weather

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Convective Community Regular

Convective

Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
Posted (edited)

Just been a cracking CG bolt on the 3rd camera down! Albeit weakening, could be a few more pretty sferics before this storm is done

 

http://www.dus.com/dus/webcam/

 

EDIT: Some really good ones going now! Seen a good 5 in the last 10 mins

Edited by Convective
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DAVID SNOW Veteran

DAVID SNOW

Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
Posted

Near continent looking like blackpool illuminations at moment , and we get nothing , sounds familiar doesn't it !!!.....

All too familiar! Bring back the good ole days when the MCS headed north and not northeast, with a right turn over the channel just to rub it in.

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Convective Community Regular

Convective

Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
Posted

The Dusseldorf webcam is shaking incredibly violently now and huge flashes of lightning directly overhead. I assume thats gusts associated with the main system which has since died.

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

Give things a chance folks, this was always going to be heading Eastwards! We need a setup kind of like what we had a week ago when we enter June and July. I still believe we are going to see some direct hitters this year and not ones way off on a tangent such as previous years. Sea temperatures are way above average around our shores, that has not been the case for a number of years at this time of the year. 

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Convective Community Regular

Convective

Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
Posted

Give things a chance folks, this was always going to be heading Eastwards! We need a setup kind of like what we had a week ago when we enter June and July. I still believe we are going to see some direct hitters this year and not ones way off on a tangent such as previous years. Sea temperatures are way above average around our shores, that has not been the case for a number of years at this time of the year. 

 

Can't wait for another set up like last week. Was almost perfect for us here! Shame the current model outputs are so changeable, as there was a good output yesterday with a potential plume set up.. :(

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

Can't wait for another set up like last week. Was almost perfect for us here! Shame the current model outputs are so changeable, as there was a good output yesterday with a potential plume set up.. Posted Image

Hopefully this was just a warm up lol. All that lightning though literally just across the water from Dieppe to Calais was rather frustrating yesterday! 

Being in Portsmouth at the moment, I was hoping for a bit more.

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poseidon Aficionado

poseidon

Posted
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything apart from grey days
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)
Posted

A bit of research on tornado touchdown areas and landscape transitions... 

 

http://phys.org/news/2014-04-landscape-transition-zones-tornadoes.html

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Ross Andrew Hemphill Community Regular

Ross Andrew Hemphill

Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
Posted

No storms to speak of at all today, not even an interesting cloud shape. :(

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vladthemert Enthusiast

vladthemert

Posted
  • Location: cleethorpes
  • Location: cleethorpes
Posted

A bit of research on tornado touchdown areas and landscape transitions... 

 

http://phys.org/news/2014-04-landscape-transition-zones-tornadoes.html

 

very interesting analysis of where tornado's develop.  Wonder if this linked to urban heat island effect when it comes to cities.  I read about this study how cities cause mini greenhouse effect, which can cause climate change to surrounding areas from wind patterns to rainfall.  Might be a link between the two.

 

www.urbanheatislands.com/

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poseidon Aficionado

poseidon

Posted
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything apart from grey days
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)
Posted
vladthemert, on 12 Apr 2014 - 10:50, said:

very interesting analysis of where tornado's develop.  Wonder if this linked to urban heat island effect when it comes to cities.  I read about this study how cities cause mini greenhouse effect, which can cause climate change to surrounding areas from wind patterns to rainfall.  Might be a link between the two.

 

www.urbanheatislands.com/

Watched Raging Planet on DIscovery channel earlier. It highlighted Tampa as being the lightning capital of America, and one of the main contributing factors to this was the heat island effect.

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vladthemert Enthusiast

vladthemert

Posted
  • Location: cleethorpes
  • Location: cleethorpes
Posted

Watched Raging Planet on DIscovery channel earlier. It highlighted Tampa as being the lightning capital of America, and one of the main contributing factors to this was the heat island effect.

 

Thanks missed it.  Alot holding Atlanta way forward to easing the urban heat island climate issue.  Sure the somerset levels this year here was due to heat island from South east/london.   Wonder how much of worlds climate change is down to urban heat island.

 

Back on topic storm ESTOFEX has level 2 today in europe.

 

http://www.estofex.org/

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Convective Community Regular

Convective

Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
Posted

Some hope for Sunday and Monday. A bit of energy around, combining with the low moving in from the near continent could spark a couple of showers/ storms or perhaps electrify bands of rain in places. Fingers crossed.

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vladthemert Enthusiast

vladthemert

Posted
  • Location: cleethorpes
  • Location: cleethorpes
Posted

Some hope for Sunday and Monday. A bit of energy around, combining with the low moving in from the near continent could spark a couple of showers/ storms or perhaps electrify bands of rain in places. Fingers crossed.

 

cheers for this.

 

Just looked at meteox and first there chance south east into midlands, anglia region.   Then Monday our region got chance when it circulation comes around.  This all depends if it stays ontrack mind.

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Convective Community Regular

Convective

Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
Posted

GFS overview in agreement now after slight hesitation yesterday.

 

Posted Image

 

Tuesday evening looks like a whoppa for the majority of mainland Europe, if only we could get a strong south-easterly conveyor set up.. he says in hope......

 

Posted Image

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dave48 Apprentice

dave48

Posted
  • Location: Godalming, Surrey
  • Location: Godalming, Surrey
Posted (edited)

Having done some arm chair storm chasing of late watching the action over in the states I certainly feel ready for some storms over here.

As has been mentioned the cooler upper air/lower heights associated with the low moving up from the continent on Sun/Mon will create some weak instability that could allow a few thundery showers to become embedded in the general showery regime. Looks diurnal in nature.

GFS and ECMWF currently pretty happy with that evolution.

GFS:

Posted Image

ECMWF:

Posted Image

Edited by dave48
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poseidon Aficionado

poseidon

Posted
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything apart from grey days
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)
Posted (edited)

NMM also showing some CAPE around on Sun and Tues. Something to keep an eye on.

 

post-17315-0-20554400-1397764714_thumb.p   post-17315-0-56733800-1397763964_thumb.j

Edited by poseidon
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Convective Community Regular

Convective

Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
Posted

After a couple of successive downgrades earlier today, the latest run supports much more widespread action on both Sunday and Tuesday.

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

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Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted

Can just guarantee there will be too much cloud tomorrow, like every other time there is a decent set up! 

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paul m Aficionado

paul m

Posted
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
Posted

The looks good looking very good to doesn't look good getting worse scenario again.

I prefer FAIL...

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