Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.

[phil nw.]

Yes Captain ECM looking similar too for the end of the week.

 

 

unsettled with showers or rain and cooler-not great!

 

Hopefully the later frames are onto something re.the Azores high building north.

That would improve things away from the far north where it still looks rather changeable off the Atlantic.

 

Some way to go though before signs of anything really settled but that GFS mean also looks promising later in week 2.

[Frosty.]

This would be very nice, after the cool unsettled spell at the end of this week, the polar front jet is forced as far north as iceland with the uk becoming warmer and settled by mid may. I like the look of tonight's GEFS 12z mean in FI it's quite summery.

[ANYWEATHER]

Unsettled .cool and wet at times sums it up for all across the nation for the foreseeable future. Even if we go to day 7 [T+168hrs] there is little change in the 500 mb output. Gefs ensembles go for a somewhat  pressure rise later in the month, allbeit  rather small.    

Edited May 5, 2014 by ANYWEATHER

[knocker]

The ECM is backing down a tad regarding height build up during the middle of next week and the 500mb anomaly suggesting a move towards the GFS scenario. I suspect a few days before this is pinned down but the odds at this stage are continuing unsettled except Cornwall which will be bathed in sunshine.

 

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z op run in FI shows high pressure lurking with intent to the southwest of the uk and poised to exploit any relaxation of low pressure domination at the end of this week into the start of next week, the high builds in from the southwest and the south becomes generally warmer and more settled but the north stays unsettled and cooler throughout, however, I get the feeling that the high will eventually win, especially since the gefs 12z mean looks so settled by mid month, I think there is growing support from the models today for a fine and warm spell during the second half of may. In the meantime, this week is half decent with the southeast of the uk being on the warm side with temperatures in the 18-19 celsius range, lots of fine and sunny weather but bands of showers pushing in from the west at times, a rather more unsettled picture to the northwest of the uk with low pressure close to nw scotland this week, then it looks like turning generally unsettled and cooler for all areas during next weekend but hopefully followed by a summery spell by later next week onwards.

[Summer Sun]

At day 10 so caution as ever but the ECM ensemble looks good for a settled warm spell to develop

 

[knocker]

Still a disagreement between the ECM EPS and GFS 500mb anomaly for next week so any predictions at this moment are somewhat premature IMO.

Edited May 5, 2014 by knocker

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean was very bullish about a settled and warm further outlook beyond T plus 168 hours, lots of support from the 12z perturbations..hoping this is how the second half of may will pan out with the pfj shunted as far north as iceland. :-)

[knocker]

For the middle to the end of next week there is still a variation between the GFS and ECM regarding the 500mb anomaly that results in the difference in interpretation regarding the progression of the unsettled weather and the extent of the Atlantic domination. A quick look at the GFS from Wednesday that doesn’t paint a pretty picture so the sun block is on temporary hold.

 

Wednesday has a low 1000mb mid Atlantic SW of the UK giving a SW flow and unsettled damp conditions.

 

By Thursday the low is west of Ireland with fresh SW winds and rain to England. Ug.

 

By Friday the low is 989mb NW of Ireland with the frontal rain over East Anglia and showers behind. Still a fresh SW wind.

 

By Friday the low is off NW Scotland transferring the rain there with a transient ridge to the west of Ireland.

 

By Saturday more doom and gloom approaching with the low near downtown Cork and the frontal system bringing more rain into Scotland.

 

Haven’t as yet seen the ECM but I suspect it will make more of the build up of heights from the south.

 

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS & ECMWF continues to show an unsettled/cool N/W flow by weeks end, Models are still toying with something more settled towards the "very"end of the run.. But a long way to go yet for any confidence.

 

[Captain Shortwave]

The Atlantic low from yesterdays run is a lot slower moving on this mornings ECM run allowing heights to build ahead of it.

 

The GEM is also showing something similar with heights building during week 2.

 

GFS certainly less inclined to this, but the ensembles continue to support a building of pressure over Europe.

So after a cool weekend, temperatures should recover to average or above in my view, the difference is the rainfall amounts as the GFS would keep conditions unsettled but warm whilst the GEM and ECM offer something much drier.

Still a long way out though. We are probably due a rubbish weekend weather wise anyway after such a nice Bank holiday

 

Really hope the day 10 chart from the ECM is near to the mark, because that has heat wave written all over it with heights pushing east and very warm air surging northwards.

Edited May 6, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Gibby]

HERE IS THE LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY TUESDAY 6TH MAY 2014.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A broad and showery SW flow will extend to all areas today between Low pressure to the North and High pressure well to the South. The pressure gradient over the UK will increase over the next 24 hours meaning an increase in strength to the flow.

 

GFS GFS shows a continuation of SW winds and rain at times as further Atlantic depressions and fronts cross East over or just to the North of the UK. In it's lower resolution portion of the run there is still a suggestion of rather better weather, at least across Southern and Eastern parts as High pressure moves up close to the South or SE. However, there is an equal suggestion that Low pressure areas will never be far enough away to prevent the risk of at least a little rain in places even then, most likely towards the NW.

 

UKMO UKMO has the end of it's run with the UK bathed on a chilly WNW or NW flow with a mix of cool, bright conditions and sunshine and showers. Pressure is shown to be building strongly over the Atlantic and a ridge is likely to bring better weather in from the West as we move into next week.

 

GEM The GEM operational develops this ridge as it moves into the UK next week with a gentle settling down of conditions especially across the South. The end of the week looks like a NW/SE split develops with some rain at times in the NW while Southern and Eastern Britain could become bright and quite warm in balmy SW winds.

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM looks very vulnerable as the ridge suggested by the other models quickly breaks down in this run with Low pressure replacing it quickly from the SW maintaining a very unsettled and sometimes wet feel at the end of its run.

 

ECM goes all out today to show the chance of our first taste of summer as High pressure builds strongly over southern Britain later next week, this following a week of blustery SW or West winds and rain and showers at times. Should this run verify temperatures would comfortably reach the low to mid 20's across the South and SE by soon after midweek while the NW though better could still see the risk of a little rain in a continued SW breeze.

 

MY THOUGHTS  This morning's output shows another week of unsettled weather to come as we continue to be attacked by West or SW winds and rain at times with Low pressure close to the North. Then a more concerted effort from the models, especially ECM shows that things could markedly improve next week as High pressure builds up across Southern Britain from the SW. Such an improvement is most likely to be felt across Southern areas while the NW as usual in pressure rises from the SW are last to see any improvements if indeed they occur at all. Nevertheless, there is sufficient evidence in the charts and ensembles now to at least give reasonable confidence of the chance of rather pleasant conditions at least just over a week away.

[Frosty.]

The GFS & ECMWF continues to show an unsettled/cool N/W flow by weeks end, Models are still toying with something more settled towards the "very"end of the run.. But a long way to go yet for any confidence.

 

Yes the cool and very unsettled spell at the end of the week is nailed, it's what happens beyond that's still up in the air, i'm hopeful of a warmer and settled spell evolving during the second half of May although i'm sure there will be some who hope it stays unsettled.

[knocker]

Following on from my earlier post it's no great surprise that the ECM has donned the rose coloured specs discarded by the GFS. The 500mb anomaly chart indicated this. Much more emphasis on the build up of heights leading to more anticyclonic conditions, less rain and warmer. Must ring Boots just in case.

Edited May 6, 2014 by knocker

[Summer Sun]

Lovely ECM again this morning from day 8 still showing my thoughts from yesterday that we could see a month of 2 half's more unsettled and cooler at times in the first half with the second half becoming increasingly warmer and more settled

 

The south sees the change to more settled weather first with it gradually pushing further north during day 9 reaching all by day 10

 

 

GEM also shows it becoming more settled and increasingly warmer though Scotland could be still prone to unsettled weather at times

 

[knocker]

Mmmmm

 

 

[knocker]

Quite a change on the GFS 06Z for the end of next week. Now there is a surprise. High pressure far more signifcant in the Atlantic and over the UK by the weekend more in line with what the ECM was indicating. But obviously still a very fluid situation so Saxo at the ready. Slight modifications to the 500mb anomaly.

 

[Captain Shortwave]

We seem to be at the GFS vs everything else stage again with respect to next week. Unfortunately the last occasion resulted in victory for the GFS.

GEM/ECM and the UKMO deepen a low exiting the Eastern seaboard at the start of next week

UKMO

GEM

 

This mornings ECM

That run led to a very warm end to the run.

GEM ends up with the high further south by day 10 but still brings warm/very warm conditions, especially for the south

 

GFS n the other hand does not seem to want to deepen this low and brings in a quicker moving shortwave trough which zips eastwards resulting in no downstream amplification of the pattern

There are still signs of heights building but there is a delay of a couple of days, so until the GFS backs down, I'm not making any bold judgement about dry and warm weather coming our way.

Worth saying that the GFS does want to bring in some sort of southerly flow in the later stages of week 2 with the mean getting the +8C almost to the UK

[Summer Sun]

GEM showing something more settled at day 8 but some parts of the north would be more unsettled with a deep low pressure system crossing to the north of Scotland with the high pushing up from the south

 

 

Will be interesting to see what ECM comes up with later GFS hasn't moved to its offerings yet so caution remains with ECM until we get any firm agreement we all know what happened last week.......

Edited May 6, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Captain Shortwave]

Hope the 12z continues the trend, by the way how is the ensemble GEFS charts doing?

Here is day 10

High east/south east of the UK, low pressure west of the UK in a south/south westerly flow. Some impressive mean temperatures for the end of week 2 with the 8C isotherm covering the southern half of the UK.

I would say a pressure rise over Europe looks likely, the question is how much impact will it have on the UK. There could be some serious warmth at the later end of next week. Will the UK join the party?

Edited May 6, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Polar Maritime]

Yes Captain, Certainly some interesting Model watching coming up over the next few days reg the High Pressure influence, Maybe they are starting to smooth out a little after there seasonal Winter/Summer jump-about, As we have seen over the past 2/3 weeks.

Edited May 6, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Summer Sun]

ECM sticking to its guns this evening building pressure next Tuesday cooler to start with but the 850's soon rise only place prone to unsettled weather is northern Scotland where you'd be closer to low pressure systems

 

 

Another battle developing here between GFS and ECM a case now of which is right and which is wrong

 

A more unsettled end to ECM for most with the low pressure system moving southwards those in the far south cling onto the high

 

Edited May 6, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Captain Shortwave]

So far so good from the ECM

GFS on its own by days 5-7. Will it give way, or will it be right again.

[ANYWEATHER]

Ecm holds promise, but at the end of its run fails to deliver...

[knocker]

A quick glance at the ECM. Backed off a little from the earlier run but might need the block in Cornwall. I think until there is a more definite agreement in the 500 anomaly this situation will fail to settle down.

Edited May 6, 2014 by knocker