Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.

[Winter Cold]

Well this doesnt look fun for what would be going on mid-May does it:

 

 

Im off work w/c 12th May so no surprises to me its looking unsettled lol!

Edited May 3, 2014 by Winter Cold

[Gael_Force]

Wonder if this is the result of the negative NAO why we have such below average heights to the west of us? It can happen and I think the QBO change is having some ramifications on the atmosphere as well.

 

You do realise that the NAO index is a reflection of the existing pressure patterns and not a causative agent for them?

[draztik]

Models have now firmed up on an unsettled spell of weather into midterm; CFS ensembles keen to keep these disturbed conditions going until at least mid May, with support from ecm &,gem for a continuation of a broadly zonal outlook.

CFS ens msl anom. Day 5-10

[Polar Maritime]

Yes, The GFS is certainly showing an unsettled/cool and largely Atlantic dominated outlook for the majority of the run from a West/N/W flow. The Jet is also quite some way South for the time of year.

 

 

 

ECMWF follows the same theme.

 

Edited May 3, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[phil nw.]

Indeed next weeks outlook now promises to be disappointingly less settled compared to model projections from earlier in the week.

 Atlantic fronts again spreading cloud across much of the Uk  tomorrow with some rain across the north.

 

Monday will see some dry and bright weather around for many away from the far west but a general change to more widespread cloud and rain looks likely to reach across much of the country by Tuesday.

The T72hrs. fax shows the expected situation with frontal systems moving across from the main area of low pressure out west by then.

 

 

with the Azores high modeled near home and a flat looking westerly setup then we are looking at  a changeable period with fronts from the Atlantic moving some rain/showers across from time to time.

 

Maybe not all doom and gloom though with pressure looking relatively high across the south some of the frontal systems will likely to become fairly weak as they come south east with only patchy rain on them and some brighter spells will show in between.

Edited May 3, 2014 by phil nw.

[knocker]

Indeed next weeks outlook now promises to be disappointingly less settled compared to model projections from earlier in the week.

 Atlantic fronts again spreading cloud across much of the Uk  tomorrow with some rain across the north.

 

Monday will see some dry and bright weather around for many away from the far west but a general change to more widespread cloud and rain looks likely to reach across much of the country by Tuesday.

The T72hrs. fax shows the expected situation with frontal systems moving across from the main area of low pressure out west by then.

 

http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.giffax72s.gif

 

with the Azores high modeled near home and a flat looking westerly setup then we are looking at  a changeable period with fronts from the Atlantic moving some rain/showers across from time to time.

 

Maybe not all doom and gloom though with pressure looking relatively high across the south some of the frontal systems will likely to become fairly weak as they come south east with only patchy rain on them and some brighter spells will show in between.

 

Yes it does seem to depend on what sort of foothold the AZ high can sneak, if any regarding the the south.

[Cloud 10]

A couple of ensemble mean charts from the 12z gefs shows the jet sinking south 

in the 7-10 day period as mentioned by PM up the page.

 

 

Would normally expect to see the Atlantic a bit quieter at this time of year.

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z op run looks similar to the 00z with a pretty unsettled outlook, especially for the north where any decent fine weather will be at a premium, however, the south of the uk and especially the south / se of england, pressure looks that bit higher at times as the PFJ is occasionally shunted north..so..for the far north of england, n.ireland & scotland it looks like low pressure will be in control with spells of wind and rain interspersed with sunshine and showers but some brief ridging for the south means fine and warmer spells between relatively weaker frontal activity.

Edited May 3, 2014 by Frosty.

[damianslaw]

A projected southerly tracking jet will kill off the advance of the azores high - result expect only briefest of temporary ridge/height development over south of England- a poor outlook for the north in particular. Synoptics more reminiscent of second half of summer than early May - the atlantic on average reaches its quietest mood now.

[summer blizzard]

A rather drab outlook tonight.

 

[knocker]

With all due respect pjl20101in the last few posts you have postulated that the NAO, QBO. MJO, AO, an SSW??, and PV split as may be a reason for the current synoptics. I must admit an interest in what Oceanic Oscillation/Teleconnection is next but frankly, and don't take this the wrong way, it's all a bit pie in the sky  Obviously there are reasons why certain tropospheric circulation patterns dominate for certain periods but no doubt the reasons are many and complicated and way above most people's pay grade. Having said that, carry on speculating; it is your prerogative after all.

 

EDIT

I read a paper recently on troposperic circulation and weather being affected prior to a forthcoming El Nino but I seem to have filed it in the 'not to be found again' folder.

Edited May 4, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

Quite a nice morning here but according to the 00z GFS the outlook for the rest of the week is still unsettled and downhill all the way to next weekend. A quick glance at the 500mb anomaly for Thursday is not encouraging but hey, take a gander at the 19^th. I know…..

 

Anyway for the bad news.

 

Wednesday has a low 986mb NW of Stornaway bringing strong westerlies and wet weather to most. By Thursday the low is near Wick with the wind veering a tad and perhaps not so wet. By Friday the low has gone but there is another low in mid Atlantic and the UK is in a moist westerly airstream. By Saturday the low is perched west of Ireland with associated fronts nipping across the UK bringing wet weather to all and strong winds to the south.

 

 

[Gibby]

HERE IS THE LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY SUNDAY 4TH MAY 2014.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. Pressure remains High across Southern Britain today while a warm front over Northern Britain gradually weakens and moves away North tonight. A cold front moves East towards Western Britain tomorrow in a freshening SSE flow.

 

GFS GFS shows unsettled conditions developing by late Monday and persisting for most of the run with Low pressure areas crossing the Atlantic in the region of the North of Britain pulling troughs East over the UK with spells of rain alternating with more showery interludes. The trend is for this weather type to persist for 10 days or so before drier and warmer conditions develop as High pressure develops to the South and East of the UK by the end of the run.

 

UKMO UKMO today shows changeable weather through the week with showers and outbreaks of rain on a series of fronts and Low pressure crossing East close to the North of Britain through the working week. Some drier spells look likely too at times as transitory ridges intersect the areas of rain and showers at times.

 

GEM The GEM operational brings occasional rain and showers across the UK through the next week or so though the heaviest rains look most likely in the North and West while Southern areas see occasionally dry and brighter interludes in average temperatures.

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM is looking very unsettled and breezy this morning with cloud and rain featuring highly each day as Low pressure crosses the UK at times throughout the week with just brief drier periods in between.

 

ECM still looks quite disturbed this morning as the Atlantic keeps domination over the skies over the UK through the next week or so. Cloud and rain will spread east across the UK on occasion with more showery interludes in between while temperatures remain close to average in brisk west or SW winds at times.

 

MY THOUGHTS  The charts this morning continue to look largely unsettled and Atlantic based with plenty of Low pressure areas crossing East close to northern Britain, each bringing bands of cloud and rain followed by showers. As always in these conditions there will be some drier and brighter intervals as well when it will feel pleasant enough though these look unlikely to last long. There is still some suggestion from GFS that things might settled down and warm up considerably towards the end of the two weeks with High pressure building from the South and East though at this range it has to be treated with trepidation.

[IDO]

^^ Yes week 1 has been nailed for some runs now and week 2 developments remain the interest. Next week is a typical flat zonal westerly flow with cross model agreement. Some runs hint at very transient ridging for the far south but overall showers and spells of rain. Again the further NW you are in the UK the more rain. Next 8 days totals:

 

 

The GFS 0z is following the trend of the GEFS in the last few days with height rises to the SE building a HLB to our NE (Scandi area):

 

T288:   T372:  Control at T372: 

 

The mean at T372:  

 

Again timing may be open to question (this trend delayed in respect to yesterday's output) but there is a continued trend at the moment.

 

This continues the recent output hinting at a more meridional flow but early days as to where the Atlantic trough lands and the associated ridge sits. All out in FI but if we get lucky a hot spell could be on the way:

 

Op:

 

GEM at D10: 

 

Support for GFS, with a zonal flow for week 1, but hints at the displaced Azores High heading NE at the end of the run.

 

ECM has read the script and also follows the pack. At D10:    

 

Showing potential for an Atlantic trough west of the Azores.

 

Again the synoptics in line with the GFS but detail a long way off being resolved.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 4, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

just had a look it seems things could start to get a bit wet  after the bank holiday and into fantasy world  hope its not the start of  our rainy  season we all know what happened last year!!!

[MP-R]

Don't often post in this thread as there are enough users who do a brilliant job at summarising what the models are showing. Thought I would just stress that these synoptics are hardly unusual for May, especially not in light of recent years.

 

GFS going for a barrage of Atlantic lows starting in earnest from midweek but the first attendant fronts being felt early in the new week, especially further west.

 

Some past resemblances:

 

 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2011/Rrea00120110522.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2009/Rrea00120090508.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2007/Rrea00120070510.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2006/Rrea00120060519.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2004/Rrea00120040504.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2003/Rrea00120030518.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2002/Rrea00120020514.gif

 

 

On the plus side for warm-weather fans, the GFS has been hinting on a number of runs of a more meridional flow in FI so perhaps something a lot warmer in the second half of the month. All to play for but certainly looks like more April showers than in April this coming week.

[knocker]

A quick perusal of the middle of next week for what it's worth. it doesn't fill me with undue optimism I must admit.

 

[DTHFCJ]

A quick perusal of the middle of next week for what it's worth. it doesn't fill me with undue optimism I must admit.

I agree its looking grim for some time...ive been regularly checking ensembles ops everything i can think of including these..

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/test8.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814day.03.gif

 

and the meto outlook caps it all....still trawling through the dream summer of 1976 charts

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1976/Rrea00119760505.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1976/Rrea00119760510.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1976/Rrea00119760515.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1976/Rrea00119760520.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1976/Rrea00119760530.gif

 

it didnt start all the great...........so who knows,according to my crystal ball Spurs will win the prem next season and this years weather will beat 76

[phil nw.]

As i hinted at yesterday the coming week,although looking rather unsettled,doesn't look like a washout  to me by any means.

Forecasting daily surface conditions in various locations will be tricky as we have fronts straddling the country throughout the period although weakening as they come se towards higher pressure over the continent.

 

A look at Thursdays GFS charts show this quite well and is typical for the week coming really.

 

day to day the frontal systems will waver north and south with some rain or showers.

Quite likely there will be bright periods in between especially in more sheltered eastern and southern districts away from the brisk westerly flow.

It has to said there will be a lot of cloud about in the coming days but not large rain amounts away from the far north and west of the UK.

Looking at some of the ensemble graphs underlines this.

 

more a nuisance value on many days perhaps as the rain bands move through followed by some drier interludes..

Edited May 4, 2014 by phil nw.

[legritter]

Afternoon posters ,iv been lurking but thought i would pop into say hello .well looking at all current charts it looks to me like good growing weather and the further south east you are some pleasant weather to be had inbetween weather systems .there is a hint of higher pressure pushing in  in the far outlook but as normal at this range just a tease .lets hope we all get a good summer we certainly deserve one .cheers .

[Winter Cold]

Interesting musings about the end of recent GFS runs bringing in higher pressure and higher temperatures. Having said that the 6z isnt interested and finishes with another low.

Edited May 4, 2014 by phil nw.
Removed ot comments

[knocker]

I think there is a hint of warmer air pushing up from the south next week but the jet is still on a southerly track although not overly strong.

[bluearmy]

so far, the 12z's are swinging the pendulum towards the atlantic trough/sceuro ridge i mentioned yesterday morning. that does present the possibility of a plume of some sort and if the trough were to get close enough the first bangs of the season !! of course, it could all look flatter again tomorrow .................

[Winter Cold]

Well its a full suite of model consensus tonight with all the major models showing an unsettled period coming up. The Atlantic looks very busy to me, with low after low lining up!!!

 

You can take your pick from the models for showing the unsettled conditions. It looks like the south may get a little drier at times with ridges of high pressure coming through, but its all very fluid.

 

 

 

 

Right at the end of its run, the GFS is still offering some hope of sunny and very warm weather for the end of the month:

 

Edited May 4, 2014 by Winter Cold

[DTHFCJ]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

il take that green one far top right please sign of things to come...if only...