Convective / storm Discussion - 22nd May 2014 onwards

[Stuart]

Today could be my 1st storm up here this year well I hope

[Arnie Pie]

A few caps from Saturdays storm around Birmingham

 

 

An hours footage from Brumcam

http://youtu.be/1SCSi0FOvDI

 

I know its a long video....but hey it was a long storm

[vladthemert]

nasty looking today with Norfolk getting alot of rain today.  Estofex Has Level 1 warning out which wrapped around level 2 in netherlands possible why alot rainfall forecast.

 

estofex says about rainfall risk

see rainfall amounts in excess of 50-80 mm/24h. This risk continues all night long!

 

Edited May 26, 2014 by vladthemert

[Gonzolio Martinez]

It's sunny in Norwich at the moment, at east it looks that way behind my closed curtains from my bed.

[NUT]

There is rain closing in here but none of it looks convective.............yet

[Harry]

Is thunder back in the forecast? The bbc have changed their London forecast three times, it's driving me nuts! First thunder, then to heavy rain, now light rain! The met office are saying that there is a risk of thunder this afternoon! Drizzle or thunder? :cc_confused:

Well, looking at the charts I'd say our chances have diminished somewhat. GFS and euro4 shunting the 'overnight action' even further north on the 00z and trying to maintain pretty robust cloud cover all day. Some CAPE seems available but I would like to see some heating to help realise it. That was the 00z run though, let's await the 06z - but unless I'm mistaken this murk over us is continental after birth and notoriously stubborn to shift.Even MetO now going drier/sunnier towards Kent (to me seems a tad paradoxical given the conditions for showers given to some good heating but ho hum) Edited May 26, 2014 by Harry

[Buckster]

I agree Harry

 

BUT no murk here - blue skies and hot here in Essex

[Harry]

I agree Harry BUT no murk here - blue skies and hot here in Essex

Really?...jammy!! We have what I can only describe as post storm detritus, but it has been trying to brighten up at times.

[Darren Bown]

The rain is due in the east overnight tonight isn't it? Will give quite a dumping of rain in East Anglia by the looks of it!

[Buckster]

Really?...jammy!! We have what I can only describe as post storm detritus, but it has been trying to brighten up at times.

 

its not blue skies wall to wall

 

but lots of blue visible - its certainly feeling very warm indeed

[Harry]

The rain is due in the east overnight tonight isn't it? Will give quite a dumping of rain in East Anglia by the looks of it!

Yep, but there is some potential for showers, maybe the odd storm too

[William Grimsley]

Feeling very muggy with hardly any wind here and the skies are quite black. Maybe something later.

[Mapantz]

I'd say West is best for any potential, it just looks like gloom and doom where that area of rain is.

The rain is due in the east overnight tonight isn't it? Will give quite a dumping of rain in East Anglia by the looks of it!

It looks bloody awful eh? Edited May 26, 2014 by Mapantz

[Buckster]

06z seems to show the storms hardly grazing the coast

 

lots of rain around but storms - maybe not

 

another bust for S-East ?

[Nick F]

THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST

 

Synopsis
Extensive upper trough covers western Europe today, whilst upper ridge covers E Europe/ W Russia. Slack surface low pressure covers the UK and mainland Euope with high pressure to the north and off western Iberia. An unstable airmass covers the UK, particularly towards the NW.

... SCOTLAND, N IRELAND/IRELAND, WALES and SW ENGLAND ...

500mb cold pool across NW British Isles, embbeded in upper trough overspreading the UK, will support steepest low-mid level lapse rates across NW/W UK and Ireland today - with help of surface heating in the sunny spells here. So expect scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms to develop in the above areas today, storms focused along north-south convergence lines across the west. Fairly strong southerly winds aloft and 30-40knts of 0-6km shear, will aid in storms organisation across SW England, Wales and Scotland, with a risk of isolated moderate to large size hail and strong wind gusts with any storms, along with a risk of localised flooding. Storms will be more dis-organised further west over Ireland/N Ireland, where vertical shear will be weaker. There is a chance of funnel clouds or even a brief/weak tornado/waterspout with any strong/buoyant updrafts of cells forming along wind convergence zones.

... SE ENGLAND/E ANGLIA ...

With any breaks in the cloud following morning rain clearing northwest, some instability may develop here in the afternoon given sufficient surface heating, bringing a risk of some thunderstorms developing here.

 

Full forecast here: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

Edited May 26, 2014 by Nick F

[Buckster]

Nick F - with no mention of imports I guess you are ruling that mostly out ?

 

thanks for forecast

[Harry]

I'd say West is best for any potential, it just looks like gloom and doom where that area of rain is.

It looks bloody awful eh?

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Well...NMM departing from the masses it would appear. UKMO seemingly now suggesting something heavier/convective tonight across London/Home Counties while maintaining the main mass N-EA/Lincs/Humber.

What an interesting 24 hours coming up!

I went out earlier with the sun breaking through - can see evidence of mid level instability although sadly clouding up again

[Mapantz]

Well...NMM departing from the masses it would appear. UKMO seemingly now suggesting something heavier/convective tonight across London/Home Counties while maintaining the main mass N-EA/Lincs/Humber. What an interesting 24 hours coming up!I went out earlier with the sun breaking through - can see evidence of mid level instability although sadly clouding up again

To be honest, I'm not a fan of the NMM, I just like the pretty colours.

[Stuart]

thank for that update nick we just had a heavy shower 5 mins ago

[Daniel*]

Hi been away, hopefully we get something decent today

[Nick F]

Nick F - with no mention of imports I guess you are ruling that mostly out ? thanks for forecast

Wouldn't rule it out, may update later if that looks the case.

[Greeny]

According to GFS it does look like parts of N.England and Scotland have the best chance of more organised thunderstorms according to the DLS chart. I think in the main N.England, Scotland and Ireland will see the best of it today. Not much DLS over E.Anglia and the surrounding area's but more Surface level shear, however TT's seem to indicate a lesser chance for thunderstorms than the aforementioned areas with lower lapse rates too. Convective precipitation does seem to be on the cards for East Anglia though according to GFS.

 

NMM models disagree with GFS on the DLS for east anglia suggesting 10-16 m/s and less convective precip. I still think it's touch and go for us here for anything severe.

 

Anyone else have thoughts about today's 06z run?

Edited May 26, 2014 by Greenday

[Nick F]

According to GFS it does look like parts of N.England and Scotland have the best chance of more organised thunderstorms according to the DLS chart. I think in the main N.England, Scotland and Ireland will see the best of it today. Not much DLS over E.Anglia and the surrounding area's but more Surface level shear, however TT's seem to indicate a lesser chance for thunderstorms than the aforementioned areas with lower lapse rates too. Convective precipitation does seem to be on the cards for East Anglia though according to GFS. NMM models disagree with GFS on the DLS for east anglia suggesting 10-16 m/s and less convective precip. I still think it's touch and go for us here for anything severe. Anyone else have thoughts about today's 06z run?

I suspect cloud spilling up from the south may hinder storms over N England today, but yes, Scotland and the far west have the best chance for storms today - where we have brighter or sunnier skies.

[vladthemert]

that last forecast on Mapantz I think I will need a boat to get around.   Any chance this a dream.  This going to be widespread issue with rainfall.  One of the model forecast in model forecasting talked 67mm rainfall here   .  Crikey we need some rainfall here but not months supply in a day.  How much rainfall did somerset levels get cause there flooding could there be similar issue these coming days.

[Darren Bown]

Sun has been out most of the morning here, feels warm and muggy.