Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Convective / storm Discussion - 5th June 2014 onwards

Jane Louise
 Share

Recommended Posts

SparkleS Community Regular

SparkleS

Posted
  • Location: Leyland,Lancs, uk
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow,snow!! Ooh and sunny,warm days!!!
  • Location: Leyland,Lancs, uk
Posted

Too late theyve got hold of it already! Lol

http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/480038/Shock-UK-weather-warning-Tornadoes-hail-thunderstorms-and-lightning-to-ravage-Britain

Link to comment
Share on other sites
paul m Aficionado

paul m

Posted
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
Posted

If this lot happens i will strip naked find the highest point around here and wave a very long metal pole around....Will also film it..

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Popular Post
Posted

 i will strip naked find the highest point around here and wave a very long metal pole around....Will also film it..

 

I think I speak for the majority here when I say we don't want to see a video of you naked, waving your pole around!

  • Like 14
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted

I would encourage people not to click on links to the Express. Hits will only encourage them to continue to post such BS.

How right you are, when it was posted in the Status Updates yesterday, i couldn't even bring myself to read that rubbish!

Why peeps read this utter s!#t, then talk and moan about it, the mind boggles!

 

It makes complete sense when Nick says...Hits will only encourage them to continue :good:

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hodgheg Community Regular

Hodgheg

Posted
  • Location: Near Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Severe storms and heavy snow
  • Location: Near Hull
Posted

It keeps trickling further and further south.  :nonono:

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Karl83 Community Regular

Karl83

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes.
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
Posted

Bristol's chances are getting better and better. But I must keep my feet on the ground until Friday.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted (edited)

Look at these cape values!!looks like their spreading west all the time!models were showing the highest cape to be east midlands a couple of days ago but now they look like spreading as far west as wales and northwest england. ...

post-9030-0-38159600-1401877827_thumb.pn

post-9030-0-31071700-1401877873_thumb.pn

Edited by shaky
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

I can't emphasise enough that the models are not screaming massive outbreak of thunderstorms - GooFuS in particular has precip models at odds to a certain extent with the storm risk. Furthermore, for us in the south there does not seem to be much thunderstorm activity across N and W France to be imported.

 

That said, with an unstable atmosphere, falling pressure and a front whipping in from the Atlantic it could very much be a case of models struggling to get grapple with the whats, wheres and whens.

 

At the moment, I'm looking forward to the heat and humidity for the end of the week...but I'm not too excited yet re storm chances.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted

Absolutely Shaky, You can see the differences between yesterdays and this morning's :D

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Azazel Veteran

Azazel

Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
Posted

why do i get the feeling the north east are going to get the best out of this setup? :( Not that i'm wildly jealous or anything:p

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Spikecollie Accomplished

Spikecollie

Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
Posted

Look at this now for me for next week - woohoo!

 

post-21857-0-16883000-1401879293_thumb.j

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

I can't emphasise enough that the models are not screaming massive outbreak of thunderstorms - GooFuS in particular has precip models at odds to a certain extent with the storm risk. Furthermore, for us in the south there does not seem to be much thunderstorm activity across N and W France to be imported.

 

That said, with an unstable atmosphere, falling pressure and a front whipping in from the Atlantic it could very much be a case of models struggling to get grapple with the whats, wheres and whens.

 

At the moment, I'm looking forward to the heat and humidity for the end of the week...but I'm not too excited yet re storm chances.

Harry, I disagree mate.

GFS precip models are notoriously unreliable and personally I pay them little interest. 

IMO the 06z run at face value oozes potential for strong thunderstorms to develop ahead of INVOF an advancing cold front providing forcing, with dewpoint speads in the upper sixties over central southern england, very high surface CAPE values as well as very high mixed layer CAPE, the air is bouyant as the lifted indices show, with steepening lapse rates in the mid levels and an initially capped atmosphere that will erode during the early afternoon, and with a theta-e rich plume of most air to tap into....strong surface based storms and active elevated storms are quite likely

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
paul m Aficionado

paul m

Posted
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
Posted

I think I speak for the majority here when I say we don't want to see a video of you naked, waving your pole around!

Ahhh but my METAL POLE is at least 8ft high

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Spikecollie Accomplished

Spikecollie

Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
Posted

The MO have now put the UK in a yellow blanket for Saturday with only Scotland poking out of the top!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

I'd say there has been a substantial shift in it all, the high dewpoints were definitely not that far west yesterday/day before.

post-15177-0-48418800-1401881890_thumb.g

The boundaries are surely where to look, 850 poteq temp and geopot temp give an idea at the moment. It reminds me of a few weeks ago?! South/Southwest, running Northwest in to Wales and beyond again, at this stage anyway..

post-15177-0-04338000-1401881897_thumb.gpost-15177-0-15052800-1401881903_thumb.g

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Nick L Maestro

Nick L

Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
Posted

I'd say there has been a substantial shift in it all, the high dewpoints were definitely not that far west yesterday/day before.

Posted ImageRmgfs818.gif

The boundaries are surely where to look, 850 poteq temp and geopot temp give an idea at the moment. It reminds me of a few weeks ago?! South/Southwest, running Northwest in to Wales and beyond again, at this stage anyway..

Posted ImageRmgfs819.gifPosted ImageRmgfs812.gif

 

21c DP will feel incredibly sticky. But if it helps thunderstorms then I'll put up with it...

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

Absolutely Shaky, You can see the differences between yesterdays and this morning's :D

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

damn right and am surprised more people haven't posted about this!!
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted

21C dewpoint is pretty amazing for UK

Wish it were...-21c :p

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Karl83 Community Regular

Karl83

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes.
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
Posted

I will take this now - Bristol area has 70%/80% chance of storms from 12:00 through until 18:00 maybe just after.  

 

Thats incredible. Just hope this verfies.

 

post-15744-0-52600900-1401884277_thumb.p

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bobby Seasoned

Bobby

Posted
Posted (edited)

NMM looking interesting for early Saturday, coming into the range of the high-res models now. 1,500 J/kg MUCAPE cape and LI of up to -7 moving up in the plume, a very warm airmass indeed.

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

A cape in place across to the E but expect that will break later no problem.

Posted Image

 

The jetstream giving an extra bit of oomph to developments, decent shear too. Looks like all the ingredients for some lively thunderstorms.

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Bobby
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted

damn right and am surprised more people haven't posted about this!!

It as moved Westwards quite alot, I was going to post this one from two days ago! But i thought peeps on here would say that's where it will end up :laugh:

 

Posted Image

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...