Convective / storm Discussion - 5th June 2014 onwards

[ancientsolar]

Friday Night into Saturday.. see these "possible" storms.. even if 10% chance... will keep me awake all night! Hopefully if they are around midnight onwards, we'll get a light show :)As for the Express.. 32 degrees ? I think 24-26 is quite realistic at the top end.

[Mapantz]

There will be some torrential downpours embedded in that rainfall as it moves inland; not sure if any thunder will evolve from it though. It is spitting here, pretty wet through tomorrow, looking forward to developments during Saturday, whether it's here or not, plenty to post about.

[Convective]

This is looking incredibly similar to the 19th/20th of May for me! Big storms firing in the south of Wales before moving north over me

 

 

 

 

[Daniel*]

Well well well !

 

BANK! Oh I do wish the current forecast stays on track, Saturday could be that special day. CAPE values like the above, are a rarity, what ever kicks off will be potent and thundery at the moment focus is on C/S England.

[Bobby]

So...who is going to be doing this when their thunderstorm arrives?

 

 

Not me, looks a bit dangerous that!

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

Holy moly, where does the Free version of NW storm forecast pick it's LI and CAPE values from?

 

GFS  charts shows me with around 1,400j/kg of SB CAPE 

NW Extra Storm Forecast has me down for 2,200

 

and then there's this, the free storm forecast with over 2,600j/kg of CAPE and an LI of -9 

 

 

Do the storm forecasts pick up on multi level cape and not just surface based, which is why the value is higher?

 

Also, why are do the paid and free versions of the storm forecasts show different values, do they use opposing models?

Edited June 4, 2014 by Essex Easterly.

[Hodgheg]

I see from one of my friends on Facebook that the daily express are up to their usual trick. That friend of mine won't be posting anything from them again after my comment. Fingers crossed for saturday anyway

[Ben Sainsbury]

Well this looks interesting: http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/480038/Shock-UK-weather-warning-Tornadoes-hail-thunderstorms-and-lightning-to-ravage-Britain

Oh wait it's the express, I'll pass on that one. Worst hailstorm since 1843 hm?

[Nick L]

Well this looks interesting: http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/480038/Shock-UK-weather-warning-Tornadoes-hail-thunderstorms-and-lightning-to-ravage-BritainOh wait it's the express, I'll pass on that one. Worst hailstorm since 1843 hm?

 

I would encourage people not to click on links to the Express. Hits will only encourage them to continue to post such BS.

[William Grimsley]

I would encourage people not to click on links to the Express. Hits will only encourage them to continue to post such BS.

Well said.

To me, Friday evening and Saturday look like to be the only days that I could get any thundery weather. Especially, Friday evening with a Lifted Index of -4 in the area. Who knows?

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

OMFG, anyone who hasn't seen ECM 00z yet, have a look now for next week.

22c isotherm, you gotta be having a giraffe!!!!!

[William Grimsley]

OMFG, anyone who hasn't seen ECM 00z yet, have a look now for next week.22c isotherm, you gotta be having a giraffe!!!!!

What does that mean?

[Polar Maritime]

Mornin Will, It means the UK "could" get very warm even hot from the East next week, With a possibility of some great storm potential. Nothing set in stone yet, as the Models are very volatile from the week-end onwards.

 

Edited June 4, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

OMFG, anyone who hasn't seen ECM 00z yet, have a look now for next week. 18c isotherm! you gotta be having a giraffe!!!!!

Correction, not 22c iso !! My bad. Could be talking 32c easy with that run though

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

What does that mean?

Basically potential for some severe storms and properly hot weather. Exciting times to come perhaps

[Cloud 10]

So...who is going to be doing this when their thunderstorm arrives?

 

 

 

 

It would be a brave man to try it with hailstones the size of cricket balls.

 

Saturday continues to ooze " potential"

 

[Nick L]

It would be a brave man to try it with hailstones the size of cricket balls.

 

Saturday continues to ooze " potential"

 

ukcapeli (1).pngukstormrisk.png

 

I'm meant to be doing a meteorologist pub crawl on Saturday...could be a fun one

[Evening thunder]

Just had a look at the ECM charts on Weather Underground, and for Saturday it shows CAPE building to 1800k/kg by 3pm (maybe higher by 6pm but that chart wasn't available)

 

 

but here's some real storm porn.. on Tuesday the 10th, look at the scale (the colours chance), yes that's right, the ECM builds over 5000j/kg of CAPE in places!!

 

The previous night had up to 3000j/kg of presumably ML Cape arriving from the continent. 

 

Very unlikely to occur at least to that level as it happens through the ECM's probably outlier heatwave solution next week, but fun to look at!

 

Don't let the express get hold of this one!

Edited June 4, 2014 by Evening thunder

[William Grimsley]

Just had a look at the ECM charts on Weather Underground, and for Saturday it shows CAPE building to 1800k/kg by 3pm (maybe higher by 6pm but that chart wasn't available)

 

saturday 1800 jkj cape.jpg

 

but here's some real storm porn.. on Tuesday the 10th, look at the scale (the colours chance), yes that's right, the ECM builds over 5000j/kg of CAPE in places!!

 

5000 jkg cape!.jpg

The previous night had up to 3000j/kg of presumably ML Cape arriving from the continent. 

 

Very unlikely to occur at least to that level as it happens through the ECM's probably outlier heatwave solution next week, but fun to look at!

 

Don't let the express get hold of this one!

But nothing much here Sam. This is just typical.

Basically potential for some severe storms and properly hot weather. Exciting times to come perhaps

Great even down here? Except Monday morning or Friday morning, bring it on.

[Evening thunder]

But nothing much here Sam. This is just typical.

 

Not on that chart though one for the night before did show almost 2000j/kg for you, but pointless worrying about the detail of charts that will definitely change in some way though.

[William Grimsley]

Not on that chart though one for the night before did show almost 2000j/kg for you, but pointless worrying about the detail of charts that will definitely change in some way though.

2000 j/kg! WOW!

[Cloud 10]

I'm meant to be doing a meteorologist pub crawl on Saturday...could be a fun one

 

Don't go climbing any lamposts.

[BornFromTheVoid]

A few pics from around Lough Neagh in N.Ireland yesterday.

 

  

 

 

The pics are from here, so but they didn't mention the source.

[Jimmyh]

this is utter weather porn. but lets get closer to the event then take a deep breath and go omfg. if not doesnt matter the charts are jaw droppingly exciting 

[Speedway Slider]

With all the hyping/ogling of these charts, how rare are they? Are they once a year charts, once a decade charts, once in a lifetime??? If you get what I mean....?