Convective / storm Discussion - 5th June 2014 onwards

[NUT]

France I got to say is looking absolutely juicy for saturday! NW quick meetup there anyone?   Still got the potental to be very interesting in some spots................

[Daniel*]

Pub run is sweet. I'd take that Saturday, mid-high twenty maxima with big thunderstorm potential.

Improvement on yesterday as we now are getting the +16C isotherm into the UK, which was the target I was looking for to get thing to really kick off.

Intresting, as it gradually gets into a more reliable timeframe hopefully it will firm up, as the hours pass and the theme continues so does my hope for something epic.

CAPE over France looks exceptional. Comparable to the States.

Edited June 2, 2014 by Daniel*

[lassie23]

A good time to visit France this weekend.......if you like being pelted by large hail and struck by lightning, that is!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

2500j/kg cape and a -8 LI right over me!

That's enough to send me to the moon lol.

What an opportunity for a major chase this could be. This forum could be on the brink of meltdown this time in a few days or so !

[SnowJoke]

2500j/kg cape and a -8 LI right over me!That's enough to send me to the moon lol.What an opportunity for a major chase this could be. This forum could be on the brink of meltdown this time in a few days or so !

 

Wouldn't count your chickens yet, or even the eggs for that matter. Normally as the week progresses the basket makes a steady eastward progression. Has done for the last six or seven years now, I'm hoping the gfs is correct but past experience tells me not to get excited until it's bang on target within a 24 hour time frame.

[davehsug]

It will probably be the usual fist shaking across the North Sea with mass shouts of "Damn you Belgium!!!"

[Carl46Wrexham]

2500j/kg cape and a -8 LI right over me! That's enough to send me to the moon lol. What an opportunity for a major chase this could be. This forum could be on the brink of meltdown this time in a few days or so !

You'll end up on the day with 2.5j/kg and +8 LI. Meanwhile, some hamlet in Belgium or The Netherlands will be getting the fruits of your 2500j/kg cape and -8 LI.

[Costa Del Fal]

2500j/kg cape and a -8 LI right over me!That's enough to send me to the moon lol.What an opportunity for a major chase this could be. This forum could be on the brink of meltdown this time in a few days or so !

Way to early for this level of excitement. No way it will look like this by the weekend. Probably very warm but expect significant downgrades. Ive seen much better plumes than this before. Too much potential for this one to shift East.

[Convective]

Those charts are only surface based energy too. Going by the 18Z output, MLCAPE is present almost everywhere meaning that anywhere could get a show.

 

 

 

 

 

[William Grimsley]

Latest GFS output showing me getting -4 Lifted Index which is the highest forecast for here since last summer. It seems like the convective activity is spreading more W for once!

[TEITS]

Dewpoints of 20C for my location.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1118.gif

 

At the moment it looks very tasty especially for "Thunderstorm Alley" of the UK i.e Cambs, Beds, Lincs, etc

[Lauren]

I know the Medway storm shield too well to get excited.

[paul m]

A good time to visit France this weekend.......if you like being pelted by large hail and struck by lightning, that is!

Where do i book

[Speedway Slider]

8th go at this post....!!

What do you mean "pub run" charts as mentioned earlier in this thread?

[stainesbloke]

Very tempted to go visit close relatives that live just north of Paris this weekend. Hot sun and massive storms there no doubt whilst we get the usual cool overcast garbage so typical of the last 8 years! Still waiting for a proper plume event here, with hot sun followed by violent storms. There is still time for upgrades this weekend I suppose lol

[shaky]

Look at the cape values for saturday across eastern england!!also friday night saturday morning has some pretty good cape!!could be a good light show!!

[Spikecollie]

Way to early for this level of excitement. No way it will look like this by the weekend. Probably very warm but expect significant downgrades. Ive seen much better plumes than this before. Too much potential for this one to shift East.

Some of the French sites are already suggesting that most of the major t-storm activity is going to be east and south, but that doesn't mean that the west and north won't get anything! The plus side is it looks like they are progging the heat and the storms to go on all week over there - I know time will tell but I suspect I will be sitting in our garden with a glass or three of wine watching the fireworks... a few days of dreaming first though - downgrades are not allowed!

[lassie23]

Where do i book

I  think hail and lightining will cost you extra!

[Sprites]

You'll end up on the day with 2.5j/kg and +8 LI. Meanwhile, some hamlet in Belgium or The Netherlands will be getting the fruits of your 2500j/kg cape and -8 LI.

yes all that potential will get shifted east on friday night , as the cold front crosses the north sea...i would bet money on it

[Harry]

With that sort of CAPE over France, we're certainly going to see some very good imports pretty much all across the south coast. I can really see some thunderstorms going well into the night, because thunderstorms that form over that sort of energy take a good few hours to dissipate.

 

This isn't strictly true - there have been many times where significant convective potential, high temperatures and very high dew points have resulted in nothing for us in the ol' Garden of England. Indeed, a concern I have for Friday/Sat, as far as imports are concerned, is a lack of precip development over N/W France - it is true developments are shown along the coastal areas which spread NE but certainly nothing which indicates any form of MCS feature, which traditionally are the 'allnighters'.

 

Interestingly the wind profiles on GFS do suggest some form of surface low feature running across N France late Friday/early Saturday, but this stays over the continent and could serve only to keep any French stuff continent bound.

 

IMO, notwithstanding the fact that a lot could change model wise between now and then, we have got a potentially fairly active CF swinging eastwards from the atlantic during this period, which could in all likelihood entail some short wave troughs/atmospheric disturbances ahead of it to give some more organised thundery outbreaks. If however we are relying just on the front then as we have seen time and again this could get messy with frontal mess and the like.

 

I'm not ruling anything in or out at the moment and actually on balance things do look quite promising. But I'm struggling to see evidence right now of all night banging storms moving up from France

[Lauren]

Us Kentians are jaded after being stung so much with almost certain imports amounting to nothing. We don't like to show hope in fear of jinxing it.

[Mapantz]

8th go at this post....!!What do you mean "pub run" charts as mentioned earlier in this thread?

It's the terminology for a model run that is showing crazy things, usually the 18z run.

[Mapantz]

I'd stick my neck out and say Wales is in a prime place for the action.

[lassie23]

It's the terminology for a model run that is showing crazy things, usually the 18z run.

The ECM spent most of last winter down the pub!

[Azazel]

was hoping to get the camping chairs out, a crate of beer and sit in a field facing south-east all friday night in the hope of catching some lightning photos after-dark, but I've seen this so many times before. Nowt will cross the channel, it will stay on the continent