Convective / storm Discussion - 5th June 2014 onwards

[legritter]

Well gang ,get out the STellas ,we are in with a chance .its only early tuesday so plenty of time for charts to  firm up .A very nice meteorological mix arriving ,positioning of storms at this range of the proceedings will  always be hard to call .Just would love to see some late evening action , thunder bolts to rattle the windows and send soot down the chimney ,and a lightning display to read a paper by ,this evenings charts will be very interesting especially any Faxes Best of luck all .

[Summer Sun]

Early warnings out for thundery downpours on Saturday

 

Issued at: 1204 on Tue 3 Jun 2014

Valid from: 0015 on Sat 7 Jun 2014

Valid to: 2345 on Sat 7 Jun 2014

 

Thundery downpours are expected to affect parts of England, Wales and southern counties of Scotland during Saturday. The public should be aware of the potential for localised flooding due to the intensity of these storms, although at this stage the location of the heaviest rainfall is uncertain.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

Warm, humid air is likely to be pulled northwards from France late on Friday and during Saturday. Within this airmass, there is an increasing likelihood that heavy, thundery showers will break out. It is likely that many places within the current broad warning area will miss the worst of the storms; over the next few days it may be possible to focus on the areas most at risk.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1402095600&regionName=uk

 

The only areas NOT under the warning currently are

 

Orkney & Shetland

Highlands & Eilean Siar

Grampian

Central, Tayside & Fife

Northern Ireland

[William Grimsley]

Well gang ,get out the STellas ,we are in with a chance .its only early tuesday so plenty of time for charts to  firm up .A very nice meteorological mix arriving ,positioning of storms at this range of the proceedings will  always be hard to call .Just would love to see some late evening action , thunder bolts to rattle the windows and send soot down the chimney ,and a lightning display to read a paper by ,this evenings charts will be very interesting especially any Faxes Best of luck all .

You really think so? This far W?

Early warnings out for thundery downpours on Saturday

 

Issued at: 1204 on Tue 3 Jun 2014

Valid from: 0015 on Sat 7 Jun 2014

Valid to: 2345 on Sat 7 Jun 2014

 

Thundery downpours are expected to affect parts of England, Wales and southern counties of Scotland during Saturday. The public should be aware of the potential for localised flooding due to the intensity of these storms, although at this stage the location of the heaviest rainfall is uncertain.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

Warm, humid air is likely to be pulled northwards from France late on Friday and during Saturday. Within this airmass, there is an increasing likelihood that heavy, thundery showers will break out. It is likely that many places within the current broad warning area will miss the worst of the storms; over the next few days it may be possible to focus on the areas most at risk.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1402095600&regionName=uk

 

The only areas NOT under the warning currently are

 

Orkney & Shetland

Highlands & Eilean Siar

Grampian

Central, Tayside & Fife

Northern Ireland

Just got a tad excited! 

[Spikecollie]

IMO, notwithstanding the fact that a lot could change model wise between now and then, we have got a potentially fairly active CF swinging eastwards from the atlantic during this period, which could in all likelihood entail some short wave troughs/atmospheric disturbances ahead of it to give some more organised thundery outbreaks. If however we are relying just on the front then as we have seen time and again this could get messy with frontal mess and the like.

 

I'm not ruling anything in or out at the moment and actually on balance things do look quite promising. But I'm struggling to see evidence right now of all night banging storms moving up from France

I know a lot can change between now and the weekend, BUT, quite interestingly Météo France are not progging any storms over there until Monday at the moment! They tend, I know, to be quite conservative at first and then issue warnings. I'm reasonably sure that this will be more than a one day event on both sides of the channel, if not I'll bottle you some Limousin lightning

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Been here way to many times... Would not even begin to get any hopes up of storms yet... Notice the experts go quite till nearer the time... They know they know 

[Mapantz]

It'll look like this by Friday..

[William Grimsley]

It'll look like this by Friday..

article-2638789-1E4365A600000578-960_472x353.jpg

Most probably!

[Lauren]

You know it's true!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

It'll look like this by Friday..

article-2638789-1E4365A600000578-960_472x353.jpg

 

   

[Mapantz]

Meteogroup are on the bandwagon..

I'm not going to get too wrapped up with what's on show at the moment, if anything, I don't fancy my chances at this stage.

[Chris101]

I for one won't be pinning my hopes on French imports, what i would like to see is a full destabilisation of the plume happening somewhere across the UK as happened last Thursday, and as it stands i wouldn't give it over a 50% chance of it happening, timing of the CF is going to be crucial imo.

[Dancerwithwings]

Looking at the BBC and the Met Office, why do they call thunderstorms "thundery showers". Is it really too hard for them to say that twelve-letter word beginning with T?

I can see where your coming from but there's a big difference between a storm and a shower.

 

Your in luck! Stav Danaos just mentioned the word thunderstorms come the end of the week

Edited June 3, 2014 by Dancerwithwings

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Some heavy showers developing in Ireland at the moment. Maybe something will happen although my expectations are hindered somewhat. Today doesn't feel like a stormy day although it is still quite humid.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Wow, the BBC using the word "thunderstorm"!? What am I expecting now, supercells, softball-sized hail and EF5 tornadoes?

 

No.. Drizzle, mist and low cloud 

[Dancerwithwings]

Wow, the BBC using the word "thunderstorm"!? What am I expecting now, supercells, softball-sized hail and EF5 tornadoes?

Crikey calm down!.... Otherwise i'm going to start to think it's the 80's again

[lassie23]

Wow, the BBC using the word "thunderstorm"!? What am I expecting now, supercells, softball-sized hail and EF5 tornadoes?

Super cell showers, largeish hail showers, leading to outbreaks of  tornadoes in amongst the thundery, supercell hail showers!

[William Grimsley]

Maybe it will be like one of the USA's tornado outbreaks?

Certainly looks close!

[lassie23]

Maybe it will be like one of the USA's tornado outbreaks?

Is there an EF-1 on the tornado scale, that's what we will probably get!

[Liam J]

Nothing really spectacular on the CAPE & Li chart, looking a bit mental over France! Lets hope for some upgrades as we get nearer. 

 

 

 

Looking very wet for some areas! 

 

Edited June 3, 2014 by Liam J

[Bobby]

ECM seems to show thundery downpours developing in the SW and moving NE through Saturday, looks the most likely outcome.

 

   

 

I'm sure there will be some storms but a lot of uncertainty obviously, though don't go expecting a repeat of June 28th 2012 with supercells and everything.

Edited June 3, 2014 by Bobby

[Cheshire Freeze]

It'll look like this by Friday..

article-2638789-1E4365A600000578-960_472x353.jpg

 

You know it's true....I actually laughed out loud at that

[Speedway Slider]

Right, Thundery Shower v Thunderstorm, if lightning can only be formed in a cumulus nimbus (thunder cloud) i think I have spelt it correctly, what is the   difference between a thundery shower and a thunderstorm or can lightning be produced in other cloud formations if certain conditions are met, ie you get a ruddy great shower, and a single flash bang event....... If you understand what I mean....??

[lassie23]

Pouring with rain here and my neighbour just lit his barbie, shouldn't laugh.........but I can't help it!

[vladthemert]

Looking those charts think we could be in for fireworks night.

[William Grimsley]

A further light shower and light rain now.