Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/09/14 onwards

[Spikecollie]

First rumble, that big storm centred around Beaune is heading my way...oh no! I have to be in class at 0800 tomorrow...

[Spikecollie]

Torrents of rain starting...oohhh!

[Spikecollie]

A tremendous storm here in Dijon, frequent lightning, hail and deafening thunder...il s'arrive!

[Azazel]

is that a cluster i see in the English channel moving this way? managed to get these snaps, shame the bloody camera was out of focus:(

[Spikecollie]

Thunder to lift you off your seat...

[Chris K]

Couldn't make it up. Storms lose lightning activity as it reaches Bristol, only for it to start up again once it has crossed the Severn Estuary....again! Brilliant

Edited September 18, 2014 by Chris K

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

So are we still on for a plethora of electrical activity at around 11pm in the Surrey / Hants area?

Missed the earlier stuff - was over the other side of Woking.

Feels ripe for a storm here in Godalming

[Spikecollie]

(on limited battery power so expect crash out anytime!) It's take me a while to understand Blitzortung, I think. Does it only record CG strikes, because during this and other storms there is far more lightning than ever recorded. I count thunder as the latter, because erm it is! Am I right?

[Allseasons-Si]

Couldn't make it up. Storms lose lightning activity as it reaches Bristol, only for it to start up again once it has crossed the Severn Estuary....again! Brilliant

Chris k,it's backbiulding,new recent sferics to your SW

 

http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en

 

http://www.meteoradar.co.uk/home/maps?bg=0

 

meanwhile,across the channel,that storm N of la mans looks juicy,i am so ..............

Edited September 18, 2014 by Allseasons-si

[Azazel]

So are we still on for a plethora of electrical activity at around 11pm in the Surrey / Hants area?

Missed the earlier stuff - was over the other side of Woking.

Feels ripe for a storm here in Godalming

 

from what I can tell, there is a fairly potent area of rainfall in the channel heading this way, don't think there's any lightning associated with it though, but its such an "atmospheric soup" out there tonight, it could become electrical once it makes landfall.

EDIT: there has been a recent strike detected

Edited September 18, 2014 by Azazel

[Noahjoe]

I'm really hoping that area of slow moving rainfall in the channel will turn electric on landfall, a couple of sferics detected and it looks promising

[Chris K]

Chris k,it's backbiulding,new recent sferics to your SW

 

http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en

 

http://www.meteoradar.co.uk/home/maps?bg=0

 

meanwhile,across the channel,that storm N of la mans looks juicy,i am so ..............

 

You're right! If it keeps going looks like a direct hit for Bristol itself. I live about 10 miles North so may see it in the distance to my South if so!

[A.J]

plenty of lightning to my south, quite distant with the odd low growl of thunder as new cells develop 

[chapmanslade]

Very electrically active here but mostly CC very high up. Back building all the time

[Mapantz]

plenty of lightning to my south, quite distant with the odd low growl of thunder as new cells develop 

 

I think you're going to be woken up in the early hours aj?!

 

Obviously, anywhere in the MO warning zone is at risk, but the hot zones for storms in the next 18 hours or so, look to be the same areas that got hit today.. hants/wilts/berks/gloucs

[Allseasons-Si]

You're right! If it keeps going looks like a direct hit for Bristol itself. I live about 10 miles North so may see it in the distance to my South if so!

Oh you will def see some lightning,if it keeps it up that is

 

get your cam ready,it looks pretty lively now

[Chris K]

Oh you will def see some lightning,if it keeps it up that is

 

get your cam ready,it looks pretty lively now

 

Yep will try catch some videos or something if it is not too late. Something tells me I'll be yawning in the office tomorrow

 

Looking at its current (slow) track it looks like I may just be that little bit too far North...but again it's a waiting game to see if it holds up anyway.

[Allseasons-Si]

Yep will try catch some videos or something if it is not too late. Something tells me I'll be yawning in the office tomorrow

 

Looking at its current (slow) track it looks like I may just be that little bit too far North...but again it's a waiting game to see if it holds up anyway.

Lol

 

ive been there many a time,actually,ive done a allnighter before and gone to work @ 6am DO NOT TRY THAT,it's not funny

[Andy Bown]

I didn't think the lightning frequency of the storms from 17th to 19th July could be matched this year, but this current storm is doing a good job at matching them.

 

This truly has been a remarkable year for thundery activity.

[Spikecollie]

Lol

 

ive been there many a time,actually,ive done a allnighter before and gone to work @ 6am DO NOT TRY THAT,it's not funny

I'm heading that way, but I can't sleep through storms. I have an 0800 class tomorrow. I might need to shut the windows and pop a pill. It's such a pity to shut that beautiful lot out....

[Azazel]

I'm really hoping that area of slow moving rainfall in the channel will turn electric on landfall, a couple of sferics detected and it looks promising

 

yes it doesnt look to be weakening, elevated?

[Azazel]

rogue sferic nr. Andover would suggest these storms are becoming elevated as no rainfall detected in that area on radar

[Spikecollie]

Crazy rain, constant lightning, booming thunder...bed now now 

[Evening thunder]

Can clearly see flashes from that storm from down here near Sidmouth, and I have a hill to my NE.

 

May go to a local viewpoint as from there I saw actual CC/CG bolts from a storm in about the same position in July!

[Nick F]

Storm & Convective Forecast

Issued 2014-09-18 20:45:31

Valid: 19/09/2014 0000z to 20/09/2014 0000z

 

 

THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST

Synopsis

A quasi-stationary low pressure circulation lies off NW Iberia during Friday, with a plume of warm and moist air advecting north ahead of this system across Sern Britain and Sern Ireland. An occluded front moving NE across Sern UK/Ireland in the early hours of Friday will trigger heavy showers and islotaed thunderstorms along it, then further t-storms may develop in its wake along local breeze convergence zones.

 

... S IRELAND, WALES, MIDLANDS, S ENGLAND and E ANGLIA ...

 

Heavy showers and isolated elevated storms are likely to spread from the south across Wales, southern and western England along occluded front during Thursday night/Friday morning. Once these clear north, GFS indicates 300-700 j/kg CAPE building by the afternoon as fairly steep rates characteristic of the plume and surface heating in the sunny spells creates increasingly unstable atmosphere, local breeze convergence will then be the trigger for the development of further thunderstorms to break out in the above areas. Though storms will be hit and miss, with some places staying dry all day.

 

Any storms will be slow-moving and so have the potential to produce large local rainfall totals (20-30mm) in a short space of time, leading to localised surface water flooding and difficult driving conditions from rainfall intensity. Also storms may produce hail, gusty winds and, with cloud tops potentially reaching 30,000ft looking at forecast skew-ts, storms maybe be quite electrically active with frequent cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, which could cause disruption.

 

Issued by: Nick Finnis

Edited September 18, 2014 by Nick F