Early winter hopes and chat

[Hocus Pocus]

I think a lot of the long range models still haven't got ENSO modelled correctly and this is throwing everything out of kilter, add to that how global temps have been above average for the last 10 months at least then any changes in oceanic and atmospheric conditions won't be picked up on until nearer the time.

[SE Blizzards]

I find it hard to believe that people still take Long Range Models seriously? How many of those Models predicted last Winter's monsoon for the UK correctly? Ermmm... None! Any member of NetWeather could put a Winter seasonal forecast together and have as much chance as getting it right as one of those models.

[radiohead]

We all know that the best weather models start to fall apart around the 7-10 day range. Using the same NWP method to try and forecast weeks and even months ahead just seem silly to me. CFS is always good for a laugh and a bit of eye candy at least once or twice a week though.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Worth having a look at the CFS' forecasts for the last three winters:

2011/12:

Milder than average forecast for all Eurasia

Actual: 

Massive cold anomaly for central-southern Russia stretching into Southern Europe

 

2012/13:

Mild winter across Europe, no negative anomalies highlighted anywhere. Very zonal looking height pattern progged too:

Actual:  

2013/14 forecast:

Height anomalies didn't look as bad as the 2012/13 forecast though, with a positive anomaly over Greenland:

 

and in their early November outlook the charts looked a bit colder:

 

Actual:  

How does the MO do? They had a bad miss in 2009/10 when their models went for a significantly above average chance of cold weather but their models also missed the severe cold of December 2010

but they did better over the last 3 winters, going for below average temperatures in 2012/13 and above average in 2013/14, although they did go for generally somewhat above average height anomalies here and missed pretty badly for the US last winter http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

So, in summary, the CFS is likely to predict a mild winter for Europe regardless of what's actually going to happen while the MO is a bit better although certainly has its misses. The OPI creators last winter correctly predicted both the vortex' placement over the eastern seaboard and a milder winter for Europe, which both the CFS and MO failed to do, so it will certainly be interesting to read their thoughts on the coming winter and compare it with the long range model performance.

 

 

[Gael_Force]

Just out of curiosity what is input into the long range models?

At the moment we have seem to have a number of factors hinting at a colder winter or at least factors that make it more of a possibility for us. I understand the OPI won't be factored in but with promising signs from other things such as the SAI, an easterly based QBO, weakish El nino, and perhaps a stratosphere that appears more likely to play ball what are we missing?

I was under the impression the long range models take all of the above into account and going off some of the excellent posts on this forum (which are miles ahead of my level of knowledge), you would expect the models to be hinting at something a bit more wintery. So is there something they take into account that has being missed on the forum?

 

A wee bit of background on the climate models.

 

https://www.wmo.int/pages/themes/climate/climate_models.php

 

These model runs we are seeing now will mostly have been initialised long before we know what the October snow extent is actually going to be.

 

The oceans at are record warmth and the models still forecast something between weak to moderate Nino conditions (the atmosphere had been at odds but is now more Nino like) - the signals indicate warm conditions to continue and until something actually changes to alter direction, the output will continue to reflect warm actual conditions.

 

These favourable conditions that people are talking about, have yet to manifest - if and when they do - expect a change in long range output.

[Dancerwithwings]

GFS http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php 3:30 remember folks and even better 9:30 this evening

[Summer Sun]

IIRC sea temperatures in Nov / Dec 2010 were warmer than normal? if they are the same this year any easterly feed early on could bring some pretty heavy snow given the extra moisture

 

Not saying it would happen but something to bare in mind

[throwoff]

Long range models are often dodgy at the best of times, leading into winter and looking for cold/snow? Forget about it.

 

As I remember in 2012 we got the 'nowcasting' point down to under 12 hours for a time, things that were unseen on the models that close happened. 

[summer blizzard]

IIRC sea temperatures in Nov / Dec 2010 were warmer than normal? if they are the same this year any easterly feed early on could bring some pretty heavy snow given the extra moisture

 

Not saying it would happen but something to bare in mind

 

Only really good for the first cold shot or two, North Sea cools pretty quickly.

[feb1991blizzard]

Only really good for the first cold shot or two, North Sea cools pretty quickly.

 

-10c does the business early though, 6 inches in about 2 and a half hours here in late Nov 2010 from an Easterly, even places West of Manchester got pumpkined, they got no less snow than from February 1991, imagine if the -15c isotherm had been involved in Nov / Dec 2010!!!!

[Catacol]

The MetO put some effort into their 14-30 day forecast, but next to none into anything beyond that. And for those of us who have watched and scanned the 16-30 day and the various model long range forecasts we have grown to realise that it is pointless to place any faith in these long range stabs in the dark.

 

It has become increasingly clear that SSW are very important for our weather at this latitude - and these are not easily forecastable at any range. Chio is one of the best "amateurs" and even then we deal in probabilities rather than certainties. And even if a warming occurs, getting it pinpointed to the exact region is tough. Add to that the sense the detailed understanding of the impact of solar activity (trend forecast possible, but details not....) and asian snow cover (again - very hard to forecast at any range) and you get a sense of where we lie.

 

Even the experts cannot predict Nino and Nina with any accuracy! Gray-Wolf has posted that he expects a double dip Nino in the next year with a possible steep rise in global temperatures. Good luck to him.

 

In essence the biggest element we need is luck. I once fipped a coin 13 times in a lesson (I'm a teacher) and the class called it right 13 times in a row. On the 14th they got it wrong. I was astounded. And that is what we need. Many of the background factors are actually in our favour - factors that model forecasts are not good at picking up - but even then we need some fortune. I am very interested in the OPI index as a developmental tool - looking forward to seeing if Steve's infectious optimism comes true.

 

For me? Easterly QBO, decent snow cover, weak Nino, signs of a sluggish vortex, decent ozone coverage - all these are in our favour and increase our chances. But we still need that dice to roll.

 

But forget the model long rangers. No use at all.

Edited October 27, 2014 by Catacol_Highlander

[Hocus Pocus]

Good post CH and sums up the perils of LRF perfectly. With regards to a double dip nino next year well that appears highly unlikely with a negative PD, even this projected one isn't nailed yet.

[Yarmy]

So. Many. Acronyms.

[Yarmy]

Apropos of nothing, I was reading WH's excellent synoptic summary of winter 78/79:

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/33884-the-severe-winter-of-1978-79/

 

I have little memory of the time, although an abiding image is of my mum bringing in the washing with frozen solid shirts that stood up on their own. (I suppose with no tumble dryer and no radiators, there was no choice but to hang it out.)

 

This was the NH profile on the 31st October:

 

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

Hearing the news of an impending energy crisis can only mean one thing - a long, cold, freezing, snowy, frosty and very hard winter!     

[Hocus Pocus]

Hearing the news of an impending energy crisis can only mean one thing - a long, cold, freezing, snowy, frosty and very hard winter!     

A few public service strikes thrown in for good measure and a 78/79 winter is within our grasp.

[ukpaul]

A few public service strikes thrown in for good measure and a 78/79 winter is within our grasp.

 

With a general election next year too (which is often a precursor to industrial action).

[itsnowjoke]

Shhhhhhhhshh don't say the S word to early if it hears you it will not come ...

[Methuselah]

Could be the warmest Hallowe'en on record (20C)? But, for the sake of being PC, the bottom right-hand corner of my freezer reached a new all-time low of -19.7C, last night!

[Cheshire Freeze]

This chart from January shows just how close we were to the tipping point last winter

 

 

Hence the reason I stated last winter was where the potential was at. The vortex was primed to go 'pop'

 

Another one from the end of Jan....

 

 

We were infact extremely unlucky not to get locked into a '47ish spell of winter weather.

 

At the end of December 2013 I was quoted as saying something along the lines of January 2014 containing one of the most severe spells of winter weather seen during the Netweather era......well you can see the fine margins involved between being entirely vindicated and looking like a prized prat.

Edited October 28, 2014 by CreweCold

[snowy weather]

I love snow and always hope for a severely cold and snowy winter. However this year I really want it to be mild and sunny. Commuting is so much easier. This morning was lovely and perfect. It was 12 degrees with clear blue skies. It was like summer. If the whole winter could be like that, I would be very content. This is probably a good sign for everyone else though, every time I do not hope for a cold winter or do not care about the winter, we always end up with record breaking cold

[Cheshire Freeze]

Moving on from my last post, I think we'll almost certainly see a westerly dominated winter this year with the caveat that we'll see greater instances of transient snowfall episodes from temporary northerly incursions than we did last year. I think the nino hovering around positive neutral will do us no favours and I was hoping for a weak moderate in all honesty. I just can't see a super -AO month at this point.

 

There must also be a reason why the vast majority of long range models are trailing a +NAO and I think it would be perilous to dismiss them.

 

Obviously things can change quickly but I've been having a bad feeling about this winter for the past few weeks. I think perhaps RJS may have it on the money with his winter forecast.....average.

Edited October 28, 2014 by CreweCold

[Hocus Pocus]

Moving on from my last post, I think we'll almost certainly see a westerly dominated winter this year with the caveat that we'll see greater instances of transient snowfall episodes from temporary northerly incursions than we did last year. I think the nino hovering around positive neutral will do us no favours and I was hoping for a weak moderate in all honesty. I just can't see a super -AO month at this point.

 

There must also be a reason why the vast majority of long range models are trailing a +NAO and I think it would be perilous to dismiss them.

But these same models were all going for Northern blocking for our little neck of the woods last year at this time and we all know how that turned out, of course we all know that Sod's law rules and they will be bang on the buck this year.

[Cheshire Freeze]

But these same models were all going for Northern blocking for our little neck of the woods last year at this time and we all know how that turned out, of course we all know that Sod's law rules and they will be bang on the buck this year.

 

The -QBO is great but without any drive from the ENSO we could fail to capitalise on it. Hence not all -QBO years produce the goods for us. For a while it looked like things were going to align for winter 2014/2015 but now I'm not so sure.

[Hocus Pocus]

Indeed CC and just goes to show how many rolls of the dice are needed in order for things to land just right for the UK.