Early winter hopes and chat

[LomondSnowstorm]

True but to be fair that's not a Bartlett or Euro setup, there is low heights to the South East, or at least below average heights anyway.

 

Agreed, we'd probably be better to avoid Bartlett type setups (not least for our own sanity) but the point about a superficially strong PV in November hindering a cold winter, or even a cold December still stands.

[feb1991blizzard]

Agreed, we'd probably be better to avoid Bartlett type setups (not least for our own sanity) but the point about a superficially strong PV in November hindering a cold winter, or even a cold December still stands.

 

1990 was a stonker on Dec 8th though to be fair.

[Yarmy]

If we're on the theme of unpromising November charts, ladies and gentlemen I give you Barbecue Bonfire Night 1946:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1946/archivesnh-1946-11-5-0-0.png

[throwoff]

This time last year we were into some serious melt in the snow cover, it looks like we may have a milder spell that removes a decent sized chunk but we are in a much more positive position than 12 months ago.

Anyone writing off (or super ramping to be fair) this winter is crazy.

Right now the building blocks are falling Into place and the next month and a bit are vital.

Would I love 2010 levels of snow in late November and all through December? Of course I would, but at the same time I would love just a days lying snow to take my little girl out to make her first snowman!

I'm much more positive than last year but I have seen it all before and then been dashed, it's a huge picture and we won't really know what to expect till mid December probably.

[EML Network]

I don't know what it is, but I have the distinct feeling that the background signals are all waiting in the wings , waiting to strike when the opportunity presents itself and I just have some sort of weird feeling that at some point earlier than later this Winter, we're all going to be shoved firmly in the freezer for a week or so.

 

It's like the weather gods are waiting for conditions to be just right to pounce on an unsuspecting UK

[Polar Maritime]

Nice to hear and see the Geese flying South today..

[Summer Sun]

Weather Online's latest update for December and January

 

Cooler December

Unsettled January

Issued: Tuesday 28th October 2014
Duty forecasters: Simon Keeling & Garry Nicholson

*December*

 

Note low confidence levels in our long range forecast for December and January. Current indications for December are that the month may start chilly with high pressure to the east, and a southeast flow affecting many areas. This will bring dry weather to Scotland and much of northern and eastern England, but more unsettled to the west. There is the possibility of a breakdown into more unsettled conditions through the middle and later stages of the month, this thanks to the westerly winds breaking through for a time as the high pressure retreats.

 

It is possible that a significant snow event may occur for a few days mid month as the milder Atlantic air, battles with the cooler continental air. By the end of the month, several models indicate a trough established to the west, high pressure to the east and a southerly flow as a result. This brings mostly mild conditions, drier weather in the east, although a wetter west. Note that at times there could be some incursions of colder weather from the east.

*January*

 

A more unsettled month is indicated for January. The break through of strong westerly winds bringing heavy rain and strong winds, and there is and a risk of gales, particularly so in the north and west. However, it may be that the jet stream does push further south for a while mid month, allowing high pressure to build through the UK, and introduce a much drier and cooler spell, and perhaps bringing the threat of some snow, especially to northern England and Scotland.

Simon

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=seasonaloutlook&DAY=20141029

Edited October 29, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Barry12]

Weather Online's latest update for December and January

 

Cooler December

Unsettled January

Issued: Tuesday 28th October 2014

Duty forecasters: Simon Keeling & Garry Nicholson

*December*

 

Note low confidence levels in our long range forecast for December and January. Current indications for December are that the month may start chilly with high pressure to the east, and a southeast flow affecting many areas. This will bring dry weather to Scotland and much of northern and eastern England, but more unsettled to the west. There is the possibility of a breakdown into more unsettled conditions through the middle and later stages of the month, this thanks to the westerly winds breaking through for a time as the high pressure retreats.

 

It is possible that a significant snow event may occur for a few days mid month as the milder Atlantic air, battles with the cooler continental air. By the end of the month, several models indicate a trough established to the west, high pressure to the east and a southerly flow as a result. This brings mostly mild conditions, drier weather in the east, although a wetter west. Note that at times there could be some incursions of colder weather from the east.

*January*

 

A more unsettled month is indicated for January. The break through of strong westerly winds bringing heavy rain and strong winds, and there is and a risk of gales, particularly so in the north and west. However, it may be that the jet stream does push further south for a while mid month, allowing high pressure to build through the UK, and introduce a much drier and cooler spell, and perhaps bringing the threat of some snow, especially to northern England and Scotland.

Simon

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=seasonaloutlook&DAY=20141029

 

I think all cold weather fans would take that!

[Don]

I think all cold weather fans would take that!

 

After last Winter yes.  However, if we saw that forecast this time last year, we wouldn't have been too impressed I'm sure.  Last Winter sent ones high expectations through the floor!

[meathead]

Weather Online's latest update for December and January

 

Cooler December

Unsettled January

Issued: Tuesday 28th October 2014

Duty forecasters: Simon Keeling & Garry Nicholson

*December*

 

Note low confidence levels in our long range forecast for December and January. Current indications for December are that the month may start chilly with high pressure to the east, and a southeast flow affecting many areas. This will bring dry weather to Scotland and much of northern and eastern England, but more unsettled to the west. There is the possibility of a breakdown into more unsettled conditions through the middle and later stages of the month, this thanks to the westerly winds breaking through for a time as the high pressure retreats.

 

It is possible that a significant snow event may occur for a few days mid month as the milder Atlantic air, battles with the cooler continental air. By the end of the month, several models indicate a trough established to the west, high pressure to the east and a southerly flow as a result. This brings mostly mild conditions, drier weather in the east, although a wetter west. Note that at times there could be some incursions of colder weather from the east.

*January*

 

A more unsettled month is indicated for January. The break through of strong westerly winds bringing heavy rain and strong winds, and there is and a risk of gales, particularly so in the north and west. However, it may be that the jet stream does push further south for a while mid month, allowing high pressure to build through the UK, and introduce a much drier and cooler spell, and perhaps bringing the threat of some snow, especially to northern England and Scotland.

Simon

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=seasonaloutlook&DAY=20141029

 

Hmmm, so basically they have no idea what is going to happen? They've listed nearly every possible scenario. Why do they bother coming out with this crap?

[snowking]

After last Winter yes.  However, if we saw that forecast this time last year, we wouldn't have been too impressed I'm sure.  Last Winter sent ones high expectations through the floor!

Fortunately I've never actually seen one of their long range forecasts yet come to fruition. Used to read these with great interest several years ago in the days before I knew enough about meteorology to start having a go at ascertaining longer range forecasts myself, and found them often inaccurate.

I have no idea what they use to compile these, but it doesn't seem to be working.

SK

[feb1991blizzard]

Fortunately I've never actually seen one of their long range forecasts yet come to fruition. Used to read these with great interest several years ago in the days before I knew enough about meteorology to start having a go at ascertaining longer range forecasts myself, and found them often inaccurate.

I have no idea what they use to compile these, but it doesn't seem to be working.

SK

 

Yes, its very difficult to tell what their methods are, with Madden at least you know his methods (Just forecast the same thing every year and eventually it will happen!!)

[hillbilly]

Hmmm, so basically they have no idea what is going to happen? They've listed nearly every possible scenario. Why do they bother coming out with this crap?

I would not put it exactly like that but I know what you mean,so much effort [or maybe so little] yet my 11 year old daughter has probably more chance of giving a more accurate forcast  !!!!

[Nick L]

Yes, its very difficult to tell what their methods are, with Madden at least you know his methods (Just forecast the same thing every year and eventually it will happen!!)

 

And even if it doesn't happen, just claim you got it right anyway.

[meathead]

And even if it doesn't happen, just claim you got it right anyway.

 

That's what they all do anyway. I think long range forecasts are a complete waste of time. All they do is get your hopes up or make you angry when the so called experts say something you don't want to hear. No one really knows what the weather will bring after 5 - 7 days.

[DAVID SNOW]

Hmmm, so basically they have no idea what is going to happen? They've listed nearly every possible scenario. Why do they bother coming out with this crap?

 

A" mid month significant snowy spell (December) is a possibility" Now that's a forecast, apart from the possibly bit.

[Spah1]

Reading the OPI thread is as encompassing as the model forecast thread in winter. I'm terrible - now the value is down nearer 2 than the 2.4 of a few days ago I'm thinking that there is less chance of it snowing in my back yard because of a 0.4 drop of a number calculated in Italy for a theory that isn't proven. Get a grip!!!

[Nick L]

That's what they all do anyway. I think long range forecasts are a complete waste of time. All they do is get your hopes up or make you angry when the so called experts say something you don't want to hear. No one really knows what the weather will bring after 5 - 7 days.

 

They're not a complete waste of time. Granted, they're not ready for public use. But short range forecasts in their infancy many years ago could barely get it right 24 hours ahead, now we can forecast with a good degree of accuracy up to 5 days out. They're a work in progress, yes. But to label long range forecasts as useless is a bit harsh, the only way to improve them is to learn from mistakes/inaccuracies and correct these.

 

It's only through trying and testing the models that improvements can be made.

Edited October 29, 2014 by Nick L

[hillbilly]

They're not a complete waste of time. Granted, they're not ready for public use. But short range forecasts in their infancy many years ago could barely get it right 24 hours ahead, now we can forecast with a good degree of accuracy up to 5 days out. They're a work in progress, yes. But to label long range forecasts as useless is a bit harsh, the only way to improve them is to learn from mistakes/inaccuracies and correct these.

 

It's only through trying and testing the models that improvements can be made.

I live in the pennine hills and even if you get the majority of places right it is much more difficult here as it can be sunny in Manchester and leeds and be misty with drizzle here,that new computer will be working very hot to get the weather right here day on day never mind a week in advance !!!!

[johnholmes]

They're not a complete waste of time. Granted, they're not ready for public use. But short range forecasts in their infancy many years ago could barely get it right 24 hours ahead, now we can forecast with a good degree of accuracy up to 5 days out. They're a work in progress, yes. But to label long range forecasts as useless is a bit harsh, the only way to improve them is to learn from mistakes/inaccuracies and correct these.

 

It's only through trying and testing the models that improvements can be made.

 

As to how accurate then detail out to 5 days and decreasing detail from then on, much as you see from UK Met 1-3 days outlook to 5 days then general ideas of above/below average/rain/wind etc for the main areas of the country, out to day 30.

Met now show a Fax chart out to 120h, when these first started, hand drawn, they were for 12 hours ahead then 24 and that lasted for maybe 8-10 years other than in house testing.

[Summer Sun]

Something for coldies early next week

 

Early November

 

Colder

 

wintry showers

 

Turning unsettled and milder later

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/29825971

[radiohead]

I thought you might be interested in this post by a promet on a US weather forum.

 

 

The -QBO during winter has been shown in papers to be correlated with a -AO winter. And the weak/moderate EL Nino/+PDO/-QBO combo is usually a good one for widespread blocking and a -AO.

 

If you isolate winters with an average DJF MEI value of 0.4 to 1.26, basically bordeline weak El Nino to low/mid range moderate El Nino events (likely this year), every year that had an average DJF QBO with a negative phase had an average DJF AO in the negative range. Every year!

1965-66

1958-59

2009-10

1976-77

1979-80

1986-87

1968-69

2002-03

 

The average value of the AO in those 8 years was -1.54. Ranging from -0.39 in 58-59 to -3.422 in 09-10. In all those years except 1 (79-80) the NAO also average negative 79-80 average +0.1.

 

In those 8 winters, 5/8 Decembers had a -AO, 8/8 Januarys, 6/8 Februarys.

 

Also of note we dont have Rutgers data before 1966, but three of the 6 winters in that list ranked in the top 10 for week 42 snow cover, 2009, 2002, 1976. Which finisehd with DJF AO's of -3.4, -0.65, -2.6

 

The EN/PDO/QBO combo had me already thinking a -AO is favored for this winter, the fact that the October snow data is so impressive only leads me to think that this is even more favored and that the odds favor more of a moderate to strong -AO then a weak -AO.

 

Edited October 29, 2014 by radiohead

[throwoff]

Looks like some parts of North England could get a dusting next week, very early in the season for snowfall.

[Karl83]

Not sure if this has any effect on what weather we see here in the UK this winter, but I was fortunate enough (I think) to work in Montreal for 10 days just last week.

I heard on the radio that they were forecasting higher than normal snowfall for the eastern side of Canada this winter. Particularly the Quebec region, with it being warmer on the western side of Canada.

I haven't got a clue if this means anything for us in the UK. Just thought I'd share this.

[Nights King]

Looks like some parts of North England could get a dusting next week, very early in the season for snowfall.

 

You say that but the west country had a thick covering on the 4th november just the year before last with low lying areas like Bath receiving as much as 4 inches so not that unusual in the north of the country?