Early winter hopes and chat

[Summer Sun]

The latest seasonal outlook from WSI covering the period of November to January

 

WSI Europe: Winter Weather Will Wait

 

More Warm and Wet Weather this Autumn, Increasing Chances of Colder Weather After New Year

Andover, MA, 20 October 2014 — WSI (Weather Services International) expects widespread above-normal temperatures across Europe for the November-January period, especially northern and eastern sections, with below-normal temperatures confined to parts of Iberia.

According to WSI Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford: “The bulk of evidence currently suggests that the rest of autumn will be generally warm and wet across northern Europe, similar to the pattern observed for much of last winter. However, fundamental changes to ocean temperature patterns across the North Pacific and North Atlantic since last year are now strongly suggestive that the last half of winter will be much colder than the first half. While the exact timing of the pattern change is clearly impossible to predict, we suspect that January will be colder than December and that February will be the coldest of the three winter months.â€

In November, WSI forecasts:

Nordic Region – Warmer than normal
UK – Warmer than normal
Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal
Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except southwestern Iberia

In December, WSI forecasts:

Nordic Region – Warmer than normal
UK – Warmer than normal
Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal
Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except Iberia

In January, WSI forecasts:

Nordic Region – Warmer than normal
UK – Colder than normal
Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal
Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal

 

http://www.wsi.com/ef39bee0-c170-4aba-8940-de5174b7ab51/news-scheduled-forecast-release-details.htm

[carinthian]

Most of the weather agencies make for depressing reading for us cold lovers. Same over here as well. However, I do not know how one of them can predict a snow event in the middle of December, they must have some amazing foresight and information. Anyway, I think all have a low expectancy rate that far out, but above average temps seem to be the theme widely across Europe. Hope it goes all pear shape !

C

[knocker]

Continuing like it was on Tuesday will do me just fine. Sitting outside Tescos shrouded in a warm mist I was filled with feeling of tranquility.

[carinthian]

Most of the weather agencies make for depressing reading for us cold lovers. Same over here as well. However, I do not know how one of them can predict a snow event in the middle of December, they must have some amazing foresight and information. Anyway, I think all have a low expectancy rate that far out, but above average temps seem to be the theme widely across Europe. Hope it goes all pear shape !

C

If its any comfort, I remember the October and much of Novemember 1978 being on the mild side with a warm high influencing the weather with a zonal flow pattern across the N. Atlantic. Those days our numerical charts went to 6 days out and it was with-in that time span that a change was imminent to a colder blocking pattern becoming established by the end of Novmember. What was to follow was a memorable very cold winter 78/79.

 C

[carinthian]

Continuing like it was on Tuesday will do me just fine. Sitting outside Tescos shrouded in a warm mist I was filled with feeling of tranquility.

Knocker, I too was sitting outside on Tuesday in the blazing sunshine and watching the recent snowfall melt away up the mountain at an alarming rate. It left me feeling miserable but with a nice sun tan !

C

[Yarmy]

Knocker, I too was sitting outside on Tuesday in the blazing sunshine and watching the recent snowfall melt away up the mountain at an alarming rate. It left me feeling miserable but with a nice sun tan !

C

 

 

Hmmm, Tescos versus the Austrian Alps.....

[Kiwi]

Carinthian; Looking outside at a grey gloomy Hampshire I wouldn't be too unhappy at blazing sunshine ...even if it is melting the early snow. What is the forecast looking like for you?

 

Am I right in thinking that a cold Russia should help cool things down in your part of Austria? Just seen this article today suggesting a 35 year cold spell for Russia!

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russia-could-be-facing-35-year-cold-weather-spell-scientist-says/510285.html

[carinthian]

Carinthian; Looking outside at a grey gloomy Hampshire I wouldn't be too unhappy at blazing sunshine ...even if it is melting the early snow. What is the forecast looking like for you?

 

Am I right in thinking that a cold Russia should help cool things down in your part of Austria? Just seen this article today suggesting a 35 year cold spell for Russia!

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russia-could-be-facing-35-year-cold-weather-spell-scientist-says/510285.html

Kiwi, yes a interesting article in the Moscow Times and they know all about cold winters. However, we have seen many early snowfalls pushed aback into the interior at great speed should a powerful westerly take over. The cold cycle they talk about peaked in the 1960s  and did produce a cold decade in the UK as well. A low over the North Adriatic produces our best snowfalls and that's when the UK has high pressure near to. Even in a Bartlet  situation, a cold flow on its eastern flank can produce good snowfalls in Eastern Austrian Alps. Overall, A 35 year cold spell for Russia would mean widespread snow cover, so most of Europe would be under its influence.

c

Edited October 30, 2014 by carinthian

[carinthian]

Hmmm, Tescos versus the Austrian Alps.....

Snow in the village last weekend. Currently warm sunshine melting it away rather quickly.

[feb1991blizzard]

I can experience both later this winter, we have a Tesco built a few years back slap bang in the middle of the pennines with Saddleworth moor dwarfing it!!  We often see it white even when theres no snow at the level of the aforementioned Tesco.

[johnholmes]

much the same at 6700ft at the station above  Wengen, Change trains here for the Jungraujoch or to go down into the other valley to Grindelwald. The Eiger in the background

http://www.bahnhof-scheidegg.ch/default.asp?itemid=107〈=e

 

the local prediction is for it to change at height anyway come next week, but of course it only as accurate as GFS!!

http://www.meteocentrale.ch/en/europe/switzerland/weather-lauberhorn/details/S067291/#trend

Edited October 30, 2014 by johnholmes

[matty40s]

With the Sulphur Dioxide emitting from the 2 month old Icelandic volcano eruptions now clear banding across most of the Northern Hemisphere, will/could this lead to lower temperatures overall?? 

[Methuselah]

I'm hoping for some drastic turnarounds, during November and December...

[Bristawl Si]

If we do get a cold spell in November please don't think it means the rest of Winter will be cold.

Back in Nov 07 or 08, i think, we had snow in the south west in mid November, after a long run of mild winters. In fact the week was cold.

I thought "oh maybe this winter will be cold and snowy, after the long run of mild winters"

 

We didn't see hardly any snow or cold spells for the rest of that winter.

 

IMO a cold spell or snap in November means absolutely zilch all to how the rest of winter pans out.

[Don]

If we do get a cold spell in November please don't think it means the rest of Winter will be cold.

Back in Nov 07 or 08, i think, we had snow in the south west in mid November, after a long run of mild winters. In fact the week was cold.

I thought "oh maybe this winter will be cold and snowy, after the long run of mild winters"

 

We didn't see hardly any snow or cold spells for the rest of that winter.

 

IMO a cold spell or snap in November means absolutely zilch all to how the rest of winter pans out.

 

You must be thinking of November 2007 then because most places did get snow during Winter 2008/09 especially early to mid February.  November 2008 had a cold final week to ten days with the 1st half of the month being very mild.

[Bristawl Si]

You must be thinking of November 2007 then because most places did get snow during Winter 2008/09 especially early to mid February.  November 2008 had a cold final week to ten days with the 1st half of the month being very mild.

Ok - so one more occasion during that winter.

 

November can be as cold as it likes (and maybe some snow) but it dont guarantee the same for December, January and February.

 

The winters of 09/10 and 10/11 have distorted people's expectations of a winter in the UK IMO.

[feb1991blizzard]

I hardly got a flake (Salford) and apart from a crazy 48 hours between Feb 1st and second (2009), I doubt many others did, it was memorable because a potent Easterly returned after a long while, it was what kicked all this off again for many, but as a whole winter I thought it wasn't that memorable.

[tcc]

I would want most of the November to be mild and wet please, as that would indicate there is a trough to the south of Greenland which according to Cohens paper (SAI index) would be the first step to HLB later in Dec onwards.

 

We have so far got some brilliant indicators for cold, an easterly QBO, a weak el-nino, a potentially record breaking SAI index and a very negative OPI index. Add to that the Sun "should" be weakening (solar flux) then there is much to be excited about if your after cold weather.

 

We might have to patient though as we have had an amazingly mild year so there could be a lag effect as to when we actually see some colder weather.

[Don]

Ok - so one more occasion during that winter.

 

November can be as cold as it likes (and maybe some snow) but it dont guarantee the same for December, January and February.

 

The winters of 09/10 and 10/11 have distorted people's expectations of a winter in the UK IMO.

 

I don't think anyone has suggested a cold November guarantees a cold Winter?

 

Winter 2008/09 is memorable for me because not only did I receive 10 inches of snow on the 2nd February (admittedly in my back yard I know), it also marked a pattern change back to a period of colder Winters, but each to their own.  However, I did think the south west got a lot of snow from that early February cold spell too?

 

I agree to a point about Winter's 09/10 and 10/11 distorting one's expectation for Winter.  However, last Winter should have somewhat put pay to that?

Edited October 30, 2014 by Don

[Evening thunder]

If we do get a cold spell in November please don't think it means the rest of Winter will be cold.

Back in Nov 07 or 08, i think, we had snow in the south west in mid November, after a long run of mild winters. In fact the week was cold.

I thought "oh maybe this winter will be cold and snowy, after the long run of mild winters"

 

We didn't see hardly any snow or cold spells for the rest of that winter.

 

IMO a cold spell or snap in November means absolutely zilch all to how the rest of winter pans out.

 

Indeed, and neither should mild/warmth now make people think prospects are poorer for this winter.

 

Tomorrow's weather, if happening a day later, could encroach on the November temperature record. Looking at this page http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/climate-extremes/#?tab=climateExtremes (click the temperature by month tab), the current November record of 21.7c occurred on the th in 1946... many know what kind of winter followed that. However that should not be taken to mean we are more likely to get a colder/snowier winter either.

[hillbilly]

An interesting note that November 1946 gave a very mild period including England and scotlands November record highs...then followed the 1946/1947 winter.

1962 November was wintery and quite cold .

1985 is the coldest November in 100 years....February 1986 followed...the coldest month for 50 years...!!!!

[feb1991blizzard]

Siberian/Russian High prevalent on the ensembles, in accordance with Judah Cohen papers (I have never read these as I cant open PDF's) but by all accounts........

[smith25]

With the Sulphur Dioxide emitting from the 2 month old Icelandic volcano eruptions now clear banding across most of the Northern Hemisphere, will/could this lead to lower temperatures overall??

Anyone got an answer to this one?. Going by reports this monster is heading rapidly towards a cauldera event which could certainly effect our weather agreat deal.

[roys]

Not an answer but agreement that this can effect the weather, if the sulphur dioxide gets high enough in to the atmosphere it will reflect the suns rays back out in to space and cause a temperature drop of 1to 2 Celsius, thats my understanding of it so yes it can effect the weather.      

[EML Network]

I'm getting more and more hopeful about this winter. 

Anyone that has done several years of model watching should be able to see in the  set up, and what looks likely for November that the cards are being stacked heavily in favor of a cold outbreak , this may or may not come next month,. but I would be very surprised if we get to the XMas period without a significant countrywide snow event having already took place.

 

It's clear that from next week onward the Jet Stream meanders to the South of the UK and it's not going to take much of a deviation in the current synoptics | pattern for us to get an early blast of cold weather before we even get to December. 

 

A late November first bite at the cherry would suite me just fine with a couple of other attempts in December , my only concern would be that the way things are shaping up, I would expect any early Winter cold to come from a direct Northerly , (wishbone effect)..which is no good for IMBY prospects ,but it could bode well for those along NE Facing coasts...just a hunch 

Edited October 31, 2014 by EML Network