Arctic Sea Ice Discussion 2014/2015: The Refreeze

[knocker]

They didn't look at anything after 2012 is what he meant.

So it is out of date.

 

Ah, enter the Yorkshire Dragoons. I know what he meant. The raison d'etre of the study is to improve our understanding of the complicated processes that have been taking place in the Arctic ice pack over the last forty years. To suggest, as you both are, that because it doesn't go up to last week it is out of date and invalidated is about as ludicrous as it gets. Now wait a minute knocker, don't be too hasty.

[4wd]

Well it would have messed up the propaganda story to have a conclusion which noted a marked increase since their last included data.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Ye do know the study was submitted in August 2014, there's no way it could have included last years data. Then, as is often the case, the data for the study could have been put together the previous year, with the analysis and subsequent write up done over the following year.

 

• Start the project in 2013 (only having data up to 2012)
• Finish in 2014 and submit to journal.
• Published in 2015.

 

But I guess to the mind of a conspiracy theorist, the rational explanation seems like bias.

[Gray-Wolf]

I suppose they are used to a different kind of 'science' BFTV? They are not keen on the peer review system ( delayed gratification seems an anathema to them both in studies and AGW impacts?)

 

Seeing as 2012 did its thing from a much higher start point then similar conditions this time would lead to even less ice come min as we started with less this time?

[stewfox]

Ah, enter the Yorkshire Dragoons. I know what he meant. The raison d'etre of the study is to improve our understanding of the complicated processes that have been taking place in the Arctic ice pack over the last forty years. To suggest, as you both are, that because it doesn't go up to last week it is out of date and invalidated is about as ludicrous as it gets. Now wait a minute knocker, don't be too hasty.

 

Lets ignore the last 3 years which show recovery. No idea where last week came from ?? Time to move on 

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Two cool summers in a row have now allowed the pack to increase and then hold on to a good deal of its volume.

And while the ice is still much reduced compared with the 20,000 cu km that used to stick around in the Octobers of the early 1980s, there is no evidence to indicate a collapse is imminent ...that's from the BBC !

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-30399079

Edited March 20, 2015 by stewfox

[keithlucky]

Lets ignore the last 3 years which show recovery. No idea where last week came from ?? Time to move on 

-----------------------

 

Two cool summers in a row have now allowed the pack to increase and then hold on to a good deal of its volume.

And while the ice is still much reduced compared with the 20,000 cu km that used to stick around in the Octobers of the early 1980s, there is no evidence to indicate a collapse is imminent ...that's from the BBC !

---------------------

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-30399079

Indeed 

It has been -30C in the Arctic for four months, and The Times thinks the ice is shrinking.

Arctic ice extent is as high or higher than 2005 and 2006, the two years with the highest summer minimums of the past decade. Arctic ice has stabilized at 2005/2006 levels.

Ocean and Ice Services | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut

[Gray-Wolf]

Well , by next week, we should be into melt season? Whether the past two years of low export/cloudy basin was a product of normal 'weather' or was a response to other forcings it appears that we are now exiting them?

 

As such we are about to see the other side of the 'crackopalypse' event on the pack with the potential of 'high export' on a well fragmented pack?

 

Over the winter of 2012/13 I'd highlighted the unprecedented smashing of the pack over the tail end of freeze season and wondered at its impacts. We have seen what occurs over a low export/cool/cloudy year but what happens in the opposite type of year ( sunny/high export)? Faster transport from the basin? more dark water around individual floes?

 

Gonna be a fun season!

[stewfox]

Well , by next week, we should be into melt season? Whether the past two years of low export/cloudy basin was a product of normal 'weather' or was a response to other forcings it appears that we are now exiting them?

 

 

Gonna be a fun season!

 

A 33k rise yesterday. I figure another  2 weeks but its going to be interesting that's for sure

[knocker]

The Ns are calling the maximum

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2015/03/the-ns-are-calling-the-maximum.html

[BornFromTheVoid]

The Ns are calling the maximum

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2015/03/the-ns-are-calling-the-maximum.html

 

 

That IJIS gap to maximum is now down to 107k. Winds in the Barents switch from northerly to southerly on Thursday, so just 2 days left to beat the maximum set back in February 15th.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Daily NSIDC extent now just 87k off the maximum. Will it, won't it!?

[stewfox]

Daily NSIDC extent now just 87k off the maximum. Will it, won't it!?

 

Yes we just need some favourable winds to assist in the small push in extent.

 

I and fellow skeptic are getting ready to go up there tomorrow to make that happen.

[Gray-Wolf]

Back to JAXA losses today? only 1,478km loss but it is another day without growth and as world view now shows us the sun is up around the Arctic.

[4wd]

2010 the maximum was early April, not sure which day.

[BornFromTheVoid]

2010 the maximum was early April, not sure which day.

 

The 1 day extent max was March 31st, the 5 day was April 2nd.

[cheeky_monkey]

 

Indeed 

It has been -30C in the Arctic for four months, and The Times thinks the ice is shrinking.

Arctic ice extent is as high or higher than 2005 and 2006, the two years with the highest summer minimums of the past decade. Arctic ice has stabilized at 2005/2006 levels.

 

Ocean and Ice Services | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut

Interesting that you have blotted out most of the years in between add those back in then 2015 is bumping along the bottom in regards to the extent of ice at this time of the year.

[Gray-Wolf]

KL hasn't done anything other that cut and paste someone else's attempt to deceive folk CM

[BornFromTheVoid]

Seems we won't beat the max set in February. Both JAXA and NSIDC extent have seen a drop today, and while CT is likely to rise up until the weekend, it still won't get near the previous max.

[keithlucky]

Big surge in Arctic ice now higher than 2006 2007 2008 http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php

[knocker]

Purely for the sake of accuracy it's nowhere near the 2008 level.

 

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

 

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Big surge in Arctic ice now higher than 2006 2007 2008 http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php

 

Whatever website you copy and pasted from got it wrong. It's above 2005, 2006 and 2007 (on that particular measure). The correct link to which is here

[keithlucky]

Whatever website you copy and pasted from got it wrong. It's above 2005, 2006 and 2007 (on that particular measure). The correct link to which is here

So the Danish met are rubbish?

[BornFromTheVoid]

So the Danish met are rubbish?

 

Where did I say that? 

 

Whatever climate denier site (which I'm sure is rubbish) you got your info from read the graph wrong. We are not above 2008. Look at the graph yourself.

Edited March 27, 2015 by BornFromTheVoid

[keithlucky]

Big surge in Arctic ice now higher than 2006 2007 2008 http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php

Edited March 28, 2015 by keithlucky

[keithlucky]

Arctic ice reaches 2006 levels

Arctic ice extent is certainly below average for this time of year, but this is largely due to the lack of ice in the Sea of Okhotsk. This has no effect on the overall state of Arctic ice, not least because it is not in the Arctic! In any event, this ice quickly goes in spring.

Currently, however, ice extent is higher than it was at this date in 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2011.

  http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/index.html

Edited March 28, 2015 by keithlucky