Arctic Sea Ice Discussion 2014/2015: The Refreeze

[BornFromTheVoid]

IJIS/JAXA extent no lowest on record for the time of year by about 130k, down 150k from its maximum in mid February.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Daily NSIDC extent joins IJIS at lowest on record, but the 5 day trailing average remains on 2nd lowest.

[DAVID SNOW]

Daily NSIDC extent joins IJIS at lowest on record, but the 5 day trailing average remains on 2nd lowest.

 

Talking about " lowest on record" figures, are we looking at centuries of data, or just the last couple of decades?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Talking about " lowest on record" figures, are we looking at centuries of data, or just the last couple of decades?

 

Depends on how accurate you want the data. The daily values are the lowest on the satellite record, back to 1979. We have patchy satellite data before that, and then data from shipping, exploration, aerial imagery etc, back before all that, which have been converted to a record of sea ice extent back to about 1900. So you could argue lowest month/season back to 1900.

 

 

Back before that, you're looking at proxy data and reconstructions, which has a more coarse temporal resolution.

 

Back over a thousand years, your looking more at the lowest decade or so.

 

But papers have claimed that the recent loss of ice is the largest in thousands of years http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379110000429

[BornFromTheVoid]

JAXA extent now lowest on record for the time of year by over 200k.

[Geordiesnow]

JAXA extent now lowest on record for the time of year by over 200k.

 

And with the set ups the models are showing then things could look rather ugly indeed in terms of extent because no doubt the Atlantic side of the Arctic will drop in extent with these Southerlies, models are hinting colder air will return eventually but that is not my main concern. 

 

My concern is regarding the ice in Laptev and with the models in agreement of very strong off shore winds developing(blowing from Siberia rather the Arctic landmass instead) then this will push the ice inland leaving the ice in the laptev even weaker which in turn could risk lead to yet another early polynya opening up... The way things are going and looking at the thicknesses in the ice in this area I think there is a good chance we could see a polynya during the later parts of April and perhaps in a similar position to last year also. 

 

The extent figures can be a bit mis-leading at this time of year and I have not been too fussed by them but this is the first time I'm starting to think that the Arctic is in quite a vulnable state and a record melt is increasing. High SST's across Bering, thin ice across Laptev which more than likely will get even thinner when those strong off shore winds arrive. 

 

Interesting but quite concerning times. 

Edited March 4, 2015 by Geordiesnow

[BornFromTheVoid]

JAXA extent now looking quite remarkable with yet another sizable drop, down 49k. This means we're 253k below the maximum set way back on February 15th, and 265k below the 2nd lowest for the time of year, 2011.

 

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/vishop-extent.html?N

[knocker]

Arctic sea ice extent continues to track well below average, but it is still unclear whether March will see an increase in ice, or establish a record low maximum. Regionally, Arctic ice extent is especially low in the Sea of Okhotsk and the Bering Sea. In the Antarctic, sea ice shrank to the fourth highest minimum in the satellite record.

 

The plot shows Antarctic air temperature anomalies at the 925 hPa level in degrees Celsius for February 2015. Yellows and reds indicate higher than average temperatures; blues and purples indicate lower than average temperatures.

Credit: NSIDC courtesy NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Sciences Division

 

 

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Edited March 5, 2015 by knocker

[Geordiesnow]

JAXA extent now looking quite remarkable with yet another sizable drop, down 49k. This means we're 253k below the maximum set way back on February 15th, and 265k below the 2nd lowest for the time of year, 2011.

 

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/vishop-extent.html?N

 

Do have to bear in mind about how much higher extent was in 2012 in respect ithatthe Bering Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk which the latter has no effect on where the final extent will end up but on the face of it, it looks concerning. 

 

The state of how the ice might end up in the Laptev sea really does concern me, I really do think even at this early stage, a record melt is quite likely. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Things still amazingly going down, another 24k today. That makes 2015 lowest on record for the time of year by over 300k.

 

 

 

Do have to bear in mind about how much higher extent was in 2012 in respect ithatthe Bering Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk which the latter has no effect on where the final extent will end up but on the face of it, it looks concerning. 

 

The state of how the ice might end up in the Laptev sea really does concern me, I really do think even at this early stage, a record melt is quite likely. 

 

The thickness is still looking somewhat similar to last year. You can view the new thickness images on the new JAXA page here

I think it's still down to weather patterns, but starting off with such a low albedo state heading through Spring isn't ideal

[BornFromTheVoid]

I wonder how things will go?

 

The current surface air temp anomaly over the Atlantic side is quite impressive, and that's where we've been losing much of the ice the last few days, after losing it from the Bering strait area at the weekend.

 

 

 

Sea ice Concentration 3 days back.................................. 2 Days Back ..................................... yesterday

 

 

 

But look at how those anomalies go over the next few days.

 

3 days ahead ....................... .................. .............. 5 days ahead

 

 

An interesting week coming up to say the least.

[Gray-Wolf]

I'd posted earlier that we could literally see the deep cold being flushed out of the basin ( by WAA) and mused whether this would mean the basin would not enter spring with its normal cargo of deep cold in place. It appears that this is the case? With the sun now sneaking its way ever north the chances of temp recovery look low so what will this mean for land snow and sea ice once the sun is up?

 

I know the huge difference having the sun back in our garden makes come Feb so what does it mean once the ice/snow across the basin feels that spring warmth if not buried in deep cold? If we are to see a Nino year then how will that also impact weather up there over summer?

[4wd]

It's too early to think that, at least six weeks potential growth yet.

[inghams85]

The most respected scientists in the world and some of the most important people on the planet including prime ministers and presidents and little old 4wd is still in denial and still thinks he knows best lol one of the most entertaining posters on the forum!

It's too early to think that, at least six weeks potential growth yet.

[4wd]

Open water at this time of year is losing heat rapidly
Arctic Sea ice does not peak at the start of March.

The most respected scientists in the world and some of the most important people on the planet including prime ministers and presidents
Gosh the important people - wouldn't do to contradict them would it.

[inghams85]

No that's true but it's also reasonable to suggest that the experts in the field have a better handle of the situation than an amateur enthusiast.

Open water at this time of year is losing heat rapidly

Arctic Sea ice does not peak at the start of March.The most respected scientists in the world and some of the most important people on the planet including prime ministers and presidents

Gosh the important people - wouldn't do to contradict them would it.

[knocker]

It's too early to think that, at least six weeks potential growth yet.

 

That would take it up around the 20th April. I don't think so. I think the concern is that the recent slump is within the growth time frame.

[Gray-Wolf]

And still on the way down...... only Bering, and its upcoming storm, holds our chances of seeing both the losses made up and new growth continue so every day that passes without growth makes 'recovery' back to Feb levels more and more unlikely? ( odd we're having the 'no recovery' conversation mid re-freeze and not at melt seasons end).

 

Will we be the first recorded year to not break 14 million by seasons end?

 

What we should do is look at what we think we would need to see for another 'perfect melt storm' year to develop. A very low max would be one of the conditions but what of the ice going into melt season? does a highly fractured pack mean less melt ponding ( melt ponds early in the season give an indication of final melt figures) or do we see more open water between floes earlier as the 'glue' holding the floes together melts out ( it being late formed FY ice)?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Both JAXA and NSIDC still falling and both moving further below the previous record low years. However, I don't think we can quite call the maximum yet, probably a 50/50 chance of it having already passed. Lets not forget the large increases in extent we saw during March last year, 436k between the 11th and 20th.

[knocker]

Looking at the latest GFS run still showing very positive temp anomalies out to T240 but just sticking to next weekend.

Chart weatherbell

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

JAXA extent continues to drop, now lowest on record for the date by 391k, and at 13,649,869km2, it's the only year to be below 14 million, and not to have reached 14 million km2 at all, this late in the year.

[Gray-Wolf]

So ( again?) we go from cries of recovery/rebound at the start of re-freeze only to end up with less ice extent than we've seen before??

 

Sub 14 sounds like the grim progression continues? Folk maybe concentrate on melt season at the expense of looking at what the volume losses mean across the rest of the year and whether we see long term trends in the figures there?

 

EDIT: Saw something over on the sea ice forum that had me thinking. how much of the multiyear ice is Barber's 'Rotten ice'? We saw ( in 2012 I think???) upward of 5m of ice shift from along the Greenland coast in Aug? Thick ,solid MY ice surely couldn't melt out that fast but 'rotten', melted last year ice rubble cemented together by FY ice would.........

 

If we swing back to a high melt /high export year maybe we will see some remarkable melt from the areas holding 'older ice'?

Edited March 9, 2015 by Gray-Wolf

[BornFromTheVoid]

The most recent daily NSIDC extent is the 6th lowest ever recorded in March, and the lowest for the 8th by 341k. It's looking increasingly likely that we'll set a record low maximum this year, and one f the earliest maxima too.

[knocker]

I was just going to make a comment vis-a-vis the continuing current WAA that's going on in the Arctic when I noticed Bob Hensen has covered this in his blog

 

The current weather pattern is also pushing a huge pulse of extremely mild late-winter air across the central Arctic (see Figure 4). Temperatures on Sunday, March 8, reached 15.8°C (60.4°F) in Stockholm. Senior climatologist Sverker Hellström (Swedish Hydrological and Meteorological Institute) observed today in an email forwarded by weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera that the 15.8°C is the warmest reading prior to March 19 in records at Stockholm that go all the way back to 1756! If there is any major refreezing of Arctic sea ice in the next few days, it’s most likely to occur in the Bering Sea, but the freeze-up there would have to be vast and quick to counterbalance the major ice losses we’ve seen across the Arctic as a whole since February. Even if a new peak is reached this month, it’s unlikely to be enough to keep 2015 from setting the record for the lowest maximum Arctic ice extent.

The Arctic Sea Ice Blog offers extensive coverage of this topic, including an excellent compilation of graphics updated daily. Blogger Jim Hunt examined the current situation in a detailed post on Sunday.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2929

 

Chart weatherbell

 

Edited March 9, 2015 by knocker

[stewfox]

The most respected scientists in the world and some of the most important people on the planet including prime ministers and presidents and little old 4wd is still in denial and still thinks he knows best lol one of the most entertaining posters on the forum!

 

For land its about 27th Jan for mins (temps), sea ice around 27th March time for maxes. There is a link somewhere I'm sure you can find it on google with the reasons, hence the 6 weeks of 'growth potential' is a statement of fact  rather then a statement of  'denial'.

 

'Potential' doesn't mean it will happen of course. 

 

Link here for the definition.

 

https://www.google.co.uk/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=potential%20definition

 

Thanks for the link BFTV

Edited March 9, 2015 by stewfox