Arctic Sea Ice Discussion 2014/2015: The Refreeze

[keithlucky]

d

Edited March 9, 2015 by keithlucky

[inghams85]

Sure..... Use the word potential as a back up to an unlikely scenario..... lol potentially I could become the next prime minister.

Here's the definition for "unlikely"

http://www.google.com/search?client=ms-android-samsung&source=android-home&site=webhp&source=hp&ei=Gin-VIKeL4GyUY_Xg5gG&q=unlikely+definition&oq=unlikely+def&gs_l=mobile-gws-hp.1.0.0l2j0i22i30l3.2734.9754.0.10742.17.15.2.8.8.0.284.3116.0j6j9.15.0.msedr...0...1c.1.62.mobile-gws-hp..1.16.1420.3.PD8TY709yAg

For land its about 27th Jan for mins (temps), sea ice around 27th March time for maxes. There is a link somewhere I'm sure you can find it on google with the reasons, hence the 6 weeks of 'growth potential' is a statement of fact  rather then a statement of  'denial'.

 

'Potential' doesn't mean it will happen of course. 

 

Link here for the definition.

 

https://www.google.co.uk/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=potential%20definition

 

Thanks for the link BFTV

[Midlands Ice Age]

Sure..... Use the word potential as a back up to an unlikely scenario..... lol potentially I could become the next prime minister.

Here's the definition for "unlikely"

http://www.google.com/search?client=ms-android-samsung&source=android-home&site=webhp&source=hp&ei=Gin-VIKeL4GyUY_Xg5gG&q=unlikely+definition&oq=unlikely+def&gs_l=mobile-gws-hp.1.0.0l2j0i22i30l3.2734.9754.0.10742.17.15.2.8.8.0.284.3116.0j6j9.15.0.msedr...0...1c.1.62.mobile-gws-hp..1.16.1420.3.PD8TY709yAg

 

Can i join in this game....

All these comments are about as accurate as an Ed Balls economic forecast.    

 

No one knows... In the next week large changes are forecast for the Northern hemispheric pattern.  

As Stewfox pointed out there is still time for a change.

Does anyone know.??  or be prepared to be certain about it ......  (I certainly wouldn't be certain either way at this stage.!)

 

MIA....  

[inghams85]

I know looking at the models and current/expected conditions and the forecast of the experts of NOAA that if I had to place a bet we will hit yet another record in the Arctic in the next 6 weeks. It's long odds on and to suggest otherwise is just stubborness to admit this

Can i join in this game....

All these comments are about as accurate as an Ed Balls economic forecast.    

 

No one knows... In the next week large changes are forecast for the Northern hemispheric pattern.  

As Stewfox pointed out there is still time for a change.

Does anyone know.??  or be prepared to be certain about it ......  (I certainly wouldn't be certain either way at this stage.!)

 

MIA....

[knocker]

Can i join in this game....

All these comments are about as accurate as an Ed Balls economic forecast.    

 

No one knows... In the next week large changes are forecast for the Northern hemispheric pattern.  

As Stewfox pointed out there is still time for a change.

Does anyone know.??  or be prepared to be certain about it ......  (I certainly wouldn't be certain either way at this stage.!)

 

MIA....  

 

It is not a game and it's very odd that someone who likes to deal in facts should be defending 'potential'. Also I'm not aware of any forecast change in the Arctic pattern until next week. According to the ECM LP will dominate until about the 17th. It should perhaps be noted why this thread has gone off on a tangent.

[keithlucky]

The most recent daily NSIDC extent is the 6th lowest ever recorded in March, and the lowest for the 8th by 341k. It's looking increasingly likely that we'll set a record low maximum this year, and one f the earliest maxima too

LOL Given that  Arctic sea ice it has already been above the 2006 maximum,And there readings show  the shortage of ice in Okhotsk sea which isen"t even part of the Arctic.

Edited March 10, 2015 by keithlucky

[reef]

LOL Given that  Arctic sea ice it has already been above the 2006 maximum,

 

And what is that chart showing the measurement of? Is it extent, ice area, 30% concentration, 50%, 100%? It has no information on it whatsoever, not to mention it is only up the first week in February.

 

At least post something credible.

[knocker]

And what is that chart showing the measurement of? Is it extent, ice area, 30% concentration, 50%, 100%? It has no information on it whatsoever, not to mention it is only up the first week in February.

 

At least post something credible.

 

That's a big ask reef.

[inghams85]

One of the worst posts I have ever seen!!! *bangs head against a brick wall!!!* lol

LOL Given that  Arctic sea ice it has already been above the 2006 maximum,And there readings show  the shortage of ice in Okhotsk sea which isen"t even part of the Arctic.

[Gray-Wolf]

Sadly, to KL, it obviously makes some kind of sense???

 

Surely if he was spoon fed the real data he would be just as amenable?

 

As it is we are even further away from 14 million than yesterday so i'm struggling to see how we could be bigger than 2006 when no single year ( to date) has posted a sub 14 million max? 

 

As each day of losses passes it becomes ever more difficult to see how we could make up the difference back to the current max ( in Feb?) so where is KL finding his lies?

[stewfox]

One of the worst posts I have ever seen!!! *bangs head against a brick wall!!!* lol

 

This thread has run perfectly well over the last few years , we get your point you don't agree with some posters.

 

Given sea ice volume is similar to last year and we continue to see high +ve temp anomalies in the high artic (like last year) I see no reason to worry yet.

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

 

Recent trends 2013,14 etc showed a -ve anormalies during the summer hence the big rebounds  and I would prefer reduced summer temps.

 

Time will tell.wether the recent summer recovery will continue.

 

Obviously the winter has been disappointing re volume and extent growth but lets stop the name calling.

Edited March 10, 2015 by stewfox

[BornFromTheVoid]

I reckon that we're reaching the end of this period of ice loss, and that we'll see a slight increase overall during the next week.

 

Barents sea has lost about 250k in areas since early February (100k in the last week) and is back close to record low territory, so losses from there will be a bit slower during the coming week as winds vary from north westerly to southerly, causing expansion and compression on different days, but staying mild enough to prevent new ice formation. Kara may also see some minor losses too. Between them, I'd estimate another 50k could be lost this week.

 

Over the Bering sea, I'd expect to see some moderate increases, perhaps up to 100k. The air temps look like remaining below average, with occasional light to moderate northerly winds through the Bering strait, helping to spread the ice out a little. Okhotsk looks like remaining mild however, so I wouldn't expect any significant gains there.

 

For other regions, the Greenland sea looks like seeing a combination of milder conditions and increased export, which should balance things out there. The Baffin sea will experience mainly colder conditions and northerly winds, but it's already slightly above average, so I'd only expect a slight increase here, perhaps 30k.

[inghams85]

No disrespect intended to him as a person but in a thread such as this posters should rightly be held accountable for posting ridiculous graphs to counter a fairly straight forward point been put forward by BFTV that we are currently at a record low maximum for the date with a case of extreme proportion being put forward for setting new records. How can you defend his post???

This thread has run perfectly well over the last few years , we get your point you don't agree with some posters.

Given sea ice volume is similar to last year and we continue to see high +ve temp anomalies in the high artic (like last year) I see no reason to worry yet.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Recent trends 2013,14 etc showed a -ve anormalies during the summer hence the big rebounds and I would prefer reduced summer temps.

Time will tell.wether the recent summer recovery will continue.

Obviously the winter has been disappointing re volume and extent growth but lets stop the name calling.

Edited March 10, 2015 by inghams85

[keithlucky]

The sea ice anomaly chart has flat lined over the last ten yearsbecause the wind has not blown as strong as a result Arctic thicker ice has remained in the basin Arctic sea ice so there is less fluctuation between winter and summer ,so older thicker ice has increased since 2011.

Edited March 10, 2015 by keithlucky

[Geordiesnow]

This thread has run perfectly well over the last few years , we get your point you don't agree with some posters.

 

Given sea ice volume is similar to last year and we continue to see high +ve temp anomalies in the high artic (like last year) I see no reason to worry yet.

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

 

Recent trends 2013,14 etc showed a -ve anormalies during the summer hence the big rebounds  and I would prefer reduced summer temps.

 

Time will tell.wether the recent summer recovery will continue.

 

Obviously the winter has been disappointing re volume and extent growth but lets stop the name calling.

 

I'm concerned, although if extent was the lowest on record and it was only just below other years I be less concerned as no doubt the pacific regions will be largely the reason why this is the case however the Atlantic side of the Arctic has been taking a hammering lately and in all honesty, things don't look great in the near future either and unless we get some NW'ly winds over the Barents Sea then starting with a low extent here is not good news at all. 

 

Concerned about the state of the ice over the Laptev sea also, its once again quite thin and you can see from the HYCOM model that a polyna forming in a similar position to last year could indeed happen and the weather conditions here look awful still with winds blowing in from Siberia which pushes ice away from the Coasts. 

 

This must be one of the worse ever early spring set ups we have seen and its not over by any means yet, models have been hinting at the possibilty of yet another deep low heading near the Laptev Sea and things are not helped at all by the unusually strong Scandi high. 

 

Ice thicknesses look poorer than last year over the East Siberian sea also and I believe that 3 week period in August last year which bought 2007 style conditions have done a lot more damage than a lot of people think, a lot of thick ice was melted during that period after conditions earlier in the summer which was quite favorable for ice retention. I really believe there is a high chance of an record low extent this year and its not just because of the low winter maximum also. 

[Gray-Wolf]

KL bangs on about 'older, thicker' ice but we all know from looking at the ice over late summer ( via the ships cams from vessels studying ice) that late summer multiyear ice is very melted /rotten. This must cover a substantial amount of the 'older ice' on the plot ( and explain the melt rates of this multi meter ice over summer?) so I would advise folk temper there thinking about 'increases in older ice' with the knowledge that, since 09', we have known that such ice must contain amounts of badly melted ice 'glued together' with FY ice.

[stewfox]

KL bangs on about 'older, thicker' ice but we all know from looking at the ice over late summer ( via the ships cams from vessels studying ice) that late summer multiyear ice is very melted /rotten. This must cover a substantial amount of the 'older ice' on the plot ( and explain the melt rates of this multi meter ice over summer?) so I would advise folk temper there thinking about 'increases in older ice' with the knowledge that, since 09', we have known that such ice must contain amounts of badly melted ice 'glued together' with FY ice.

 

But multi year ice is up in recent years you cant argue with that ? Clearly if you think its the 'wrong type' of multi year ice that's a different matter.

 

Some folk are suggesting , will they ever learn

 

""""""""""no sea ice end of summer and then talking about the resulting temperature rise is likely to start wildfires all over the Northern Hemisphere, which would not only send huge amounts of greenhouse gases and soot into the air, but could also cause the grid to stop functioning, which would make electricity supply stop, industrial activity stop, traffic stop, etc. """""""""""

 

 

 

http://arctic-news.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/september-2015-without-arctic-sea-ice.html

[BornFromTheVoid]

But multi year ice is up in recent years you cant argue with that ? Clearly if you think its the 'wrong type' of multi year ice that's a different matter.

Nobody can argue that multi year ice and volume haven't gone up, which is be expected after a record minimum, just as after a record warm month things will feel relatively cooler. But it doesn't hurt to look at the available data, which suggests that this multi year ice isn't the same as the pre 2007 stuff, it's younger, fragmented, patchy or as some have described, rotten.

[knocker]

PIOMAS March 2015

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2015/03/piomas-march-2015.html

[stewfox]

PIOMAS March 2015

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2015/03/piomas-march-2015.html

 

 

No comment ??  Good to see the positives

 

--------Because Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) numbers are relatively low for the time of year, and volume is still quite a bit higher than in previous years, average thickness is higher as well. ------------------

 

50k rise in extent today

 

Ice volume/thickness highest its been for 7yrs

Edited March 13, 2015 by stewfox

[4wd]

Volume trend

[knocker]

No comment ??  Good to see the positives

 

 

Why exactly does it require my comment when Neven's is more than adequate. Perhaps your rather superfluous remark would be better suited to the above post.And perhaps it's because you and one or two others try to spin every thread to reflect your particular stance at the expense of objectivity.

Edited March 14, 2015 by knocker

[stewfox]

Why exactly does it require my comment when Neven's is more than adequate. Perhaps your rather superfluous remark would be better suited to the above post.And perhaps it's because you and one or two others try to spin every thread to reflect your particular stance at the expense of objectivity.

it is a discussion thread and just posting links and just commenting on the -ve might be seen by some as a tad bias.

Also folks comments about multi year ice not been as good as multi year ice cira 1980s is of course true but recoveries have to start somewhere.

Edited March 14, 2015 by stewfox

[knocker]

it is a discussion thread and just posting links and just commenting on the -ve might be seen by some as a tad bias.

Also folks comments about multi year ice not been as good as multi year ice cira 1980s is of course true but recoveries have to start somewhere.

 

By not offering an opinion I'm indicating that Neven's summation is a fair assessment of the current state of play. So your comments are only valid if you consider his summation biased. I also take it that you find posting a chart from 2005 with no comment perfectly acceptable?

[stewfox]

By not offering an opinion I'm indicating that Neven's summation is a fair assessment of the current state of play. So your comments are only valid if you consider his summation biased. I also take it that you find posting a chart from 2005 with no comment perfectly acceptable?

 

I mentioned ice volume and thickness , highest they have been cira 7 yrs and posted the two supporting charts ?

 

I have acknowledged this in itself it doesn't mean we 'could' get a record low but i remain optimistic a figure similar to last year or  a tad above at season end.

 

I also feel the long periods of +ve anomalies across the arctic basin will trend to -ve and we will see another cooler arctic summer

 

DMI heading back in the right direction.

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Edited March 14, 2015 by stewfox