Arctic Sea Ice Discussion 2014/2015: The Refreeze

[Gray-Wolf]

Just filched this from over on the Arctic sea ice thread. it's part of a post from;

 

Veli Kallio

 

of ;

 

Sea Research Society

 

"In addition, the continuing crushing and tumbling of large amounts of recently formed ice into pack ice (behind the North Pole) does not allow the saline brine within sea ice to drain out easily. This is because the brine is drained by gravity; if the block of ice turns upside down the draining brine reverses to the opposite direction. As the ice is as restless as it is now, the direction of gravity field within ice blocks keeps changing. Thus ice remains more saline. This winters' "thick" pack ice behind North Pole will, therefore, melt very easily. (Ice rejects salt if it stays upright long enough, but this threshold has seen its own tipping point this winter.)"

 

I'd never though about this aspect of ice formation before though I do recall an 09' paper highlighting that FY ice was now forming as 'pancake ice' due to wave activity being present during refreeze? ( river ice forms this way I recall). Would this not aid the rolling of individual floes and delay the desalination process until full cover was established ( having the ice even saltier come melt season and so able to melt out easier?).

 

With the drain of multiyear ice from Fram this leads to more 'late formed' FY ice for the upcoming melt season.

 

The way I'm thinking should we not be favoured with another ( 3rd back to back) 'good retention year' then we might be looking at a high loss year with the first year ice preconditioned for melt due to both late formation and high salt content. 

[Gray-Wolf]

Bad news over on the stats thread? 

 

It appears that the drops we saw in extent, prior to the new year, have dropped us back from 11th lowest in extent to 4th lowest in just 1 week!

Edited January 5, 2015 by reef
Just stick to the subject at hand

[BornFromTheVoid]

The refreeze has come to a near standstill. Even using the trailing 5 day mean since Dec 28th, the increase has been the lowest on record at just a 78.4k, well below the next lowest of 139.2.k in 1983. Even the increase from the 27th to now is lowest on record, albeit by a smaller margin. The pause with the 1 day extent is even more impressive, with no increase in extent since December 25th.

 

 

If we continue with this rate of increase, we'll be ranked as lowest on record on record in 5 days.

 

At this time of year, the central Arctic regions are mostly frozen over and the majority of coverage increases (both extent and area) come from the peripheral Arctic regions mainly the Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk, but also to a lesser extent the Baffin Sea.

Unfortunately, looking at the 850hPa temperature anomalies, there appears to persistently strong positive temperatures anomalies right across the Pacific sector regions (Okhotsk and Bering) for the foreseeable future, with some -ve anomalies over the Baffin Sea. This should keep extent and area growth well below average.

 

Below is the 850hPa temp anomalies across the northern hemisphere for the next 5 days, note the positive anomalies across the Pacific side.

 

 

 

We'll most likely be 3rd lowest on tomorrows update, but where will we be by next weekend?

[knocker]

Surface temps anomalies up to day 16. I see what you mean

Charts courtesy weatherbell

Edited January 5, 2015 by knocker

[Gray-Wolf]

I'd noted up-thread that Bering and Okhotsk were doing poorly over on CT area plots and we've seen plenty of TM incursions from that side of the basin since Oct? The question has to be whether this is also impacting ice thickening in Beaufort and east Siberian? The losses to Fram must have impacted the volume on our side of the basin but what of the Pacific side?

 

When we get Decembers Piomas we might get some indication of what is going on?

 

On a lighter note a mere glance at the absence of KL would indicate things aren't going too well without referring to any of the data sets ( or him now focusing on Antarctica..... LOL)    

[stewfox]

 

 

When we get Decembers Piomas we might get some indication of what is going on?

 

 

 

Yes it will be interesting as extent is well down this season so far. 

 

I see DMI arctic temps  is well above average. 

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

 

We cant afford to go into the summer melt with a poor winter

Edited January 8, 2015 by stewfox

[BornFromTheVoid]

IJIS/JAXA extent is 2nd lowest again this morning, and could be lowest on record tomorrow unless it sees a gain of about 25k.

 

NSIDC extent (5 day average) is 3rd lowest currently, will almost certainly be 2nd lowest after today's update and will be lowest on record tomorrow unless it starts seeing at least some moderate gains in the daily values. Speaking of which, going just by the individual daily values, we're already the lowest on record.

[knocker]

Positive temp anomalies forecast for the next ten days.

 

[The PIT]

all the cold air is over America and Russia. Isn't going to freeze a lot of ice there. Well I'm going to expect a lot of predictions for an ice artic next summer if this continues.

[Gray-Wolf]

I take it that was " ice free Arctic" in your closing statement Pit?

 

Been following Nares straight over on the Sea ice forum;

 

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,176.msg42812/boardseen.html#new

 

and it appears that the 'Arches' are not being able to form due to high winds blowing down the Straight and into Baffin? Even the 'fast ice' that had formed has now been shattered and so freed up the channel again? Over 2007 Nares accounted for 10% of the ice transported out of the basin so it is an area to be taken into account. Seeing as Ice from Lincoln sea is what is being 'shipped' out we are losing volume ( thicker ice swapped for late formed FY ice) here as well as from Fram.

 

PIOMAS for December does show a reduction in the anom ( as Fram fired up and began exporting ice again) I would expect this 'reduction in anom' to continue into Jan as the refusal of Bering to hold onto sea ice, plus Fram/Nares exchange of 2.5m+ ice for late formed FY ice impacts 'where we should be' for an average year ( since the inception of the Piomas data).

[knocker]

PIOMAS January 2015

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2015/01/piomas-january-2015.html

[Gray-Wolf]

Thanks Knocks! i won't repeat making a fool of myself over here ( as i did over on the sea ice forum by thinking we'd gone lower in the ranking of years when in fact we'd gone up a place!!!) but will note that we have started slowing down in our 'ice gain/thickening' as I'd wondered over late December.

 

Seeing as Jan is continuing in the same flavour I'd expect that 'closing of the gap' to continue esp. if Bering refuses to put on 'normal' ice cover due to heat flowing into the basin from the warm Pacific.

[stewfox]

Rapid increase in area and rapid drop in high arctic temps. The blip had be worried there for a while

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Edited January 17, 2015 by stewfox

[Gray-Wolf]

i wonder who will cop for that cold once it plunges out of the basin then (LOL) It appears that once cold builds it then slops out to be replaced by warmer air? This is having an effect on the ice in Beaufort as the 'stop ,start' motion disrupts the ice there?

 

EDIT: What do make of this stew ( in conjunction with your DMI plot?);

 

 

it appears to show a lot of warmth across the 80N to pole region????

Edited January 17, 2015 by Gray-Wolf

[Geordiesnow]

i wonder who will cop for that cold once it plunges out of the basin then (LOL) It appears that once cold builds it then slops out to be replaced by warmer air? This is having an effect on the ice in Beaufort as the 'stop ,start' motion disrupts the ice there?

 

EDIT: What do make of this stew ( in conjunction with your DMI plot?);

 

 

it appears to show a lot of warmth across the 80N to pole region????

 

It shows well above average temperatures for the most part but still bitterly cold by anyone's standards although I do get what you say but surely your wording on "warmth" is quite misleading?

[stewfox]

It shows well above average temperatures for the most part but still bitterly cold by anyone's standards although I do get what you say but surely your wording on "warmth" is quite misleading?

 

Agree

 

The parts where we see -ve abnormalities. in the north Pacific ocean south of the Chukchi sea is in the best place for continued ice growth. As you say whether its -25c or -30c in the high artic for extent wont mean much. Although temps have dropped off there by some margin recently

 

This chart from 1946 March shows where we want those -ve abnormalities.I expect some more rapid increases in extent in the next week as per last week.

Edited January 17, 2015 by stewfox

[Gray-Wolf]

http://weather.utah.edu/index.php?runcode=2015011520&t=gfs004&r=NH&d=DT

 

 

 

Been fascinated with this for a couple of weeks. If anything shows the 'milding' of the basin it's this! For weeks now the central region is plagued by intrusions from further south?

Edited January 19, 2015 by Gray-Wolf

[4wd]

Or pools of intense cold affecting lower latitudes?
Either way it's hardly something new.
Any 'warmth' getting into the Arctic in January is going to be lost to space.

[Gray-Wolf]

I think this belongs in here? ( I thought about the 'glaciers' thread but it's an Arctic 'Ice Sheet'?)

 

http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Observing_the_Earth/Satellites_catch_Austfonna_shedding_ice

 

We have the same occurring to the remnants of the ice sheets that used to cover the Canadian Archipelago?

[Woollymummy]

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/videos/old-ice-arctic-vanishingly-rare
 

just found this, shocking!

[BornFromTheVoid]

Dr Kathy Crane of NOAA will be doing a questions and answers session (called and AMA) on www.reddit.com/r/science on February 12th on the topic of "Climate in the Arctic". I'll post up more details (her background and best time to get in your questions) in the next few days.

[BornFromTheVoid]

I thought this would be relevant here

Dr Kathy Crane of NOAA will be doing a questions and answers session (called and AMA) on www.reddit.com/r/science on February 12th on the topic of "Climate in the Arctic". I'll post up more details (her background and best time to get in your questions) in the next few days.

[4wd]

Hi guys. Can ye keep the discussion and speculation in the melt season thread please. This thread is for just data and stats, cheers.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Hi guys. Can ye keep the discussion and speculation in the melt season thread please. This thread is for just data and stats, cheers.

Can an expert in the topic of this thread, as part of a internationally respected scientific organisation, not provide stats, or even data that you find relavent?

[Gray-Wolf]

When a ball rolls down hill sometimes it hits a bump and bounces upward? Maybe this is a way to imagine the Arctic? Any upward movement in extent/area is a 'bounce' as the Sea ice move toward total melt out?

Edited January 30, 2015 by Gray-Wolf