Arctic Sea Ice Discussion 2014/2015: The Refreeze

[Gray-Wolf]

Is it just me or does Fram keep looking like its about to get a hammering over the next 2 weeks? 

 

With the past couple of years being notable for their lack of export it will be interesting to see just what happens through the upcoming melt season esp. if current Jet positioning ( recent trend) continues to place big lows across Fram? 

 

We have become more accustomed to 'stuck', or repeating, weather patterns due to odd Polar Jet behaviour ( look at the run of lows in late 13/early 14 that the SW took on) so are we about to see it now play an odd role over the spring months across Fram?

[be cause]

Just taking a proper look tonight and yes GW .. looks like an historic event in the making .. next 7 days look like an Arctic in a spin ! With Nares looking like it could reopen as well , it seems the Arctic ice is all headed for the Atlantic . brrr

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi Be!

 

When you think about the amount of ice that the 'average' 2012 melted 'in -situ' then surely you worry about seeing enhanced 'export' levels?

 

07' was the last time we saw strong export and that really had an impact on the ice loss that year so the prospect of a year dominated by export concerns me?

 

Last year the U.S. saw their 'arctic plunges' continue through the year ( not just the polar vortex excursions over winter) meaning the eastern states had a 'cool' year. If the jet is entrenched in this pattern of ridge over West Coast and trough over Eastern states then the set up might be there for the current run of low pressure systems running across Fram may continue ( and keep the Jet to our North over summer..... which would be nice!)

 

That could mean the Atlantic side emptying of ice pretty early in the year ( allowing waters to warm?) and the past two 'poor years' do not seem to have bothered the Pacific side of the basin? This would mean low ice totals ( sub 2012?) by Sept?

[BornFromTheVoid]

For the reddit AMA on Thursday. She'll be doing a questions and answers session. Given her expertise and prominent position within NOAA, I'm sure some folk here will have a few questions and be interested to hear what  she has to say. I'll post a link to the AMA when it's online.

 

I’m Kathy Crane, an oceanographer and manager of NOAA’s Arctic Research Program (www.arctic.noaa.gov). We study the Arctic and how its physical environment is changing — and how those changes are impacting ecosystems. I also contribute to the Arctic Council’s Conservation of Flora and Fauna Working group and lead a team of U.S. Arctic experts to design and carry out observations of marine ecosystems all across the Arctic Ocean. In fact, I’ve spent a lot of time doing research in the Arctic. Each year NOAA leads an international group of scientists to produce the Arctic Report Card, an annual update on the Arctic environment. We take a close look at snow, ice, ocean temperatures, fish, other wildlife, air temperatures and climate. Our reports are showing that the Arctic is warming faster than anywhere on earth. These changes don’t stay in the Arctic, but have effects on people, climate and global security well beyond this region. With 2014 being recently confirmed as the warmest year on record for the globe, studying what is happening in the Arctic is more important than ever. I’ll be here from 1:00 pm ET through 3:00 pm ET today answering your questions about Arctic climate research as well as what it’s like to work in this spectacular part of the world … AMA!

[knocker]

 

I don't know what the most interesting forum thread on the planet was last week, but this week it's definitely the Nares Strait thread, over on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum.

All who regularly follow Arctic events, know that one of the coolest places in it is Nares Strait, the waterway between Ellesmere Island and Greenland that I write about every now and again.

 

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2015/02/erase-and-rewind.html

[be cause]

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2015/02/erase-and-rewind.html

just wot I said on it

[BornFromTheVoid]

For the reddit AMA on Thursday. She'll be doing a questions and answers session. Given her expertise and prominent position within NOAA, I'm sure some folk here will have a few questions and be interested to hear what  she has to say. I'll post a link to the AMA when it's online.

 

I’m Kathy Crane, an oceanographer and manager of NOAA’s Arctic Research Program (www.arctic.noaa.gov). We study the Arctic and how its physical environment is changing — and how those changes are impacting ecosystems. I also contribute to the Arctic Council’s Conservation of Flora and Fauna Working group and lead a team of U.S. Arctic experts to design and carry out observations of marine ecosystems all across the Arctic Ocean. In fact, I’ve spent a lot of time doing research in the Arctic. Each year NOAA leads an international group of scientists to produce the Arctic Report Card, an annual update on the Arctic environment. We take a close look at snow, ice, ocean temperatures, fish, other wildlife, air temperatures and climate. Our reports are showing that the Arctic is warming faster than anywhere on earth. These changes don’t stay in the Arctic, but have effects on people, climate and global security well beyond this region. With 2014 being recently confirmed as the warmest year on record for the globe, studying what is happening in the Arctic is more important than ever. I’ll be here from 1:00 pm ET through 3:00 pm ET today answering your questions about Arctic climate research as well as what it’s like to work in this spectacular part of the world … AMA!

 

The AMA has just been posted up. She should start answering question at 6pm (GMT) this evening.

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/2vn8fp/science_ama_series_hi_im_dr_kathy_crane_an/

[knocker]

Cheers Born.

[keithlucky]

Arctic sea ice at the 1981-200 mean from Alaska to Greenland.

[BornFromTheVoid]

IJIS/JAXA extent now lowest on record, having dropped about 170k in the last 2 days.

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot_v2.csv

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/Sea_Ice_Extent_v2_L.png

[Gray-Wolf]

With Fram running full bore we are also still ongoing with the process( since mid December) of older, thicker ice leaving the basin and being replaced by younger ,thinner ice?

 

Yet another interesting run up to the melt season? With Jan global temps coming in highest/second highest on the back of elevated ocean temps it also looks like a warm start to the melt season this year?

[keithlucky]

The animation below shows changes in December multi-year ice from December 2011 to December 2014.Huge increase in thick Arctic ice since 2011 ftp://ccar.colorado.edu/pub/tschudi/iceage/gifs/age2014_52.gif

Edited February 18, 2015 by keithlucky

[BornFromTheVoid]

Daily extent for both NSIDC and IJIS now lowest on record for the time of year.

 

The outlook shows a strong ridge developing over western Russia and up into Alaska, which could feed some milder air into the Arctic over the next 10 days.

 

2 days ahead

 

4 days

 

6 days

 

 

8-10 days

[knocker]

This has already been covered by BFTV and GW but I think this worth a post.

 

Shock news!

 

There is no shocking news, really. I'm just emulating a way of news reporting as seen in recent months by folks trying to play down the long-term shocking news of Arctic sea ice loss. You know, paid climate science disinformers like Benny Peiser who claimed that the poles aren't melting, twisting the words and work of a respected oceanographer and putting up a bunch of strawmen along the way, because global sea ice area is at a record high.

 

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2015/02/shock-news.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi Knocks! My revelation has to be that the folk believing such tosh, and then reposting it as real either think the reader totally thick or are themselves totally thick? It takes no time at all to get an accurate picture of what is occurring ( both north and south) so why do they persist ?

 

The losses at Austfonna, the collapse of Jakobshavn on the 14th/15th, the state of the fissure on larsen C all point to very far reaching and rapid changes occurring right now ( and not in our grand children's time) that will themselves feed back on themselves.

 

Did we really need to see the corpse before we got motivated to mitigate???

[4wd]

 corpse motivated to mitigate

You'll have a plan for this I expect.

 

[Gray-Wolf]

You'll have a plan for this I expect.

 

 

A very cunning one!

[shuggee]

Perilously close to a record low for Feb a couple of days ago, looking at BFTV's graphs....

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi Shugg's! I think this end of the year it's more important to look at how ice types have survived the winter period?

 

Fram seems to have been back to normal workings since Dec so we've shipped a lot of older ice, our side of the basin, in exchange for late formed FY ice? Nares also stayed open late making room for the beaufort gyre to chew up the ice again.

[Gray-Wolf]

Looks like we are about to see Arctic temps surge as warm airs feed in from both our side and the pacific side of the basin? Will we see losses in extent/area?

[knocker]

Snapshot

Chart courtesy weatherbell

 

[Geordiesnow]

Looks like we are about to see Arctic temps surge as warm airs feed in from both our side and the pacific side of the basin? Will we see losses in extent/area?

 

It looks like the Atlantic side of the Arctic will warm rapidly whilst the pacific side is trending to be more colder although the Bering Sea will see very little of this cold, uncertainty just how long and how much of a southerly feed will reach the Arctic itself mind. 

 

At least the wind direction is more favorable in the laptev sea and should be until the end of the month, signs we may see off shore winds again which is not what we want too see at all as we head into the Spring months however. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

JAXA extent down to lowest on record for the time of year, after dropping nearly 100k over the last 2 days.

 

No sign of a substantial improvement in conditions over the Bering strait until early next week, while things remain mild with persistent southerlies over the Barents/Kara region for the foreseeable future, extending up into 80N in a few days.

 

While a pattern shift can still produce large coverage increases even during the second half of March, things are looking quite interesting at the moment, with the potential for a very early maximum.

[stewfox]

Any link to the IJIS figure for area ?

 

Cant seem to find it now

[BornFromTheVoid]

Any link to the IJIS figure for area ?

 

Cant seem to find it now

 

Do you mean extent? The site has moved.

 

The main page

The daily data

The satellite imagery

 

Still lowest on record though.