Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015

[bluearmy]

Correct me if I'm wrong ba but the ECM at weatherbell seems to going for strengthening of the vortex over Greenland by the 14th.

A strengthening may be pushing it knocks but it is predicted to reform towards the pole and then drift towards nw Greenland/ne Canada. If you mean strengthening from its current split then, absolutely, yes, but this has been the solid forecast for quite a few days now. Gfs subsequently takes it back towards the pole but it's drifting rather than being very mobile. there is certainly nothing positive at all In the current strat forcecats re heights etc. unless there is a downwelling wave that isn't obvious to me then I think the trop is going to have to make its own winter over the next two/three weeks at least.

[knocker]

A strengthening may be pushing it knocks but it is predicted to reform towards the pole and then drift towards nw Greenland/ne Canada. If you mean strengthening from its current split then, absolutely, yes, but this has been the solid forecast for quite a few days now. Gfs subsequently takes it back towards the pole but it's drifting rather than being very mobile. there is certainly nothing positive at all In the current strat forcecats re heights etc. unless there is a downwelling wave that isn't obvious to me then I think the trop is going to have to make its own winter over the next two/three weeks at least.

 

Thanks for that. I was thinking much the same although I freely admit my understanding of the strat. is, shall we say, somewhat deficient.

[Weather-history]

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

Why is solar activity being blamed? It's not exactly the heights of some past maxima and winter 1978-79 occurred just before a maximum.

Cohen and co have said that the low pressure over the Barents-Kara region is causing the problems.

[MR EXTREMES]

Why is solar activity being blamed? It's not exactly the heights of some past maxima and winter 1978-79 occurred just before a maximum.

Cohen and co have said that the low pressure over the Barents-Kara region is causing the problems.

and i would not be suprised if this also has been caused somewhat by a higher solar output.

its all pretty much connected.

[karyo]

Why is solar activity being blamed? It's not exactly the heights of some past maxima and winter 1978-79 occurred just before a maximum.

Cohen and co have said that the low pressure over the Barents-Kara region is causing the problems.

There will always be exceptions. Maybe other factors in 78/9 managed to cancel the effects of the solar maximum. Solar activity is not just going to drop like a stone. Only a gradual lowering is expected over the coming years so it could be a long wait for a cold winter like 2008/9, 2009/10, 2010/11 . Cold spells can still happen of course.

[KyleHenry]

Why is solar activity being blamed? It's not exactly the heights of some past maxima and winter 1978-79 occurred just before a maximum.

Cohen and co have said that the low pressure over the Barents-Kara region is causing the problems.

Kevin I'm far from having any true expertise or credentials in solar influence's on earths climate ( complete ametuer)

All I've deduced is from those that have and the data recorded from those scientists that have put the findings out there.

An uptick in Solar activity has been ongoing for the last 6 months. Sunspots, AP index and Radio flux all on the up going into this 2014/15 winter season. Sunspot numbers have totalled 90- 125 daily since October 2014.

Even with a -QBO and high October Eurasian snow cover, it can be overwritten by this increased solar activity if sustained over a certain period of time.

Had we not been in a -QBO period I would have expected a predominantly westerly mobile winter with a strong Greenland PV.

The -QBO is merely acting as a substantial block and disrupting PV more than could be expected during this stage of solar cycle 24.

Your knowledge of British weather history is second to none. Of every historic extreme British winter they all came around the solar minimum. Same for solar max in summer the highest temps come in these years. NW Europe is clearly affected by solar output cold and warm.

1978/79 came after a period of combined cold PDO and AMO where world temps had dropped some 0.8 C.

I wish I knew exacts in references to low pressure system above Kara Sea. Extra heat to tropics creating gravity waves , preventing preferred MJO phase and allowing Kara Sea LP to breakout.

AMO flip forecasted within 4-5 years, solar cycle 25 to commence 2019, then which ever year has a -QBO, we in theory will have another extreme once in a lifetime British winter.

Edited January 4, 2015 by KyleHenry

[John Badrick]

Kevin I'm far from having any true expertise or credentials in solar influence's on earths climate ( complete ametuer)

All I've deduced is from those that have and the data recorded from those scientists that have put the findings out there.

An uptick in Solar activity has been ongoing for the last 6 months. Sunspots, AP index and Radio flux all on the up going into this 2014/15 winter season. Sunspot numbers have totalled 90- 125 daily since October 2014.

Even with a -QBO and high October Eurasian snow cover, it can be overwritten by this increased solar activity if sustained over a certain period of time.

Had we not been in a -QBO period I would have expected a predominantly westerly mobile winter with a strong Greenland PV.

The -QBO is merely acting as a substantial block and disrupting PV more than could be expected during this stage of solar cycle 24.

Your knowledge of British weather history is second to none. Of every historic extreme British winter they all came around the solar minimum. Same for solar max in summer the highest temps come in these years. NW Europe is clearly affected by solar output cold and warm.

1978/79 came after a period of combined cold PDO and AMO where world temps had dropped some 0.8 C.

I wish I knew exacts in references to low pressure system above Kara Sea. Extra heat to tropics creating gravity waves , preventing preferred MJO phase and allowing Kara Sea LP to breakout.

AMO flip forecasted within 4-5 years, solar cycle 25 to commence 2019, then which ever year has a -QBO, we in theory will have another extreme once in a lifetime British winter.

I very much agree with this post.we may have to wait a few years, until the sun enters it's long slumber, but have a feeling the wait will be worth it.. Very cold UK winters may continue from 2017/18 onwards. All the positive background signals in favour of a cold winter this year (high SAI, very negative Opi, -QBO,good strat signals, busted up PV, etc) may have all been outweighed by the solar output. This is just my opinion and maybe brushed aside by the more knowledgeable folk in here, but if the next solar min is a deep one and our winters start getting colder again around 2018/19 then exciting weather forecasting times lie ahead

[Weather-history]

There will always be exceptions. Maybe other factors in 78/9 managed to cancel the effects of the solar maximum. Solar activity is not just going to drop like a stone. Only a gradual lowering is expected over the coming years so it could be a long wait for a cold winter like 2008/9, 2009/10, 2010/11 . Cold spells can still happen of course.

When you say many other factors, that's my point. I don't think you could peg it on just one thing as being the cause.

Interestingly, the coldest spring on record, 1837, for the CET occurred at a solar maximum.

The severe cold of December 1870-January 1871 came just after solar max.

Winter 1916-17 came just before a solar max.

Winter 1928-29 came just after a solar max

Winter 1946-47 came just before a solar max,

Winter 1968-69 came at a solar max.

There is enough there for me to be a healthy sceptic.

Edited January 4, 2015 by Weather-history

[Interitus]

Not to say there are no solar effects, but with regards to the charts linked to here - http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression - according to the MERRA data there were major SSWs on 20/03/00, 11/02/01, 30/12/01 and 18/01/03 with levels of solar activity similar or greater than now. They don't only occur during solar minima, so this idea needs to be revised.

[Dennis]

Berlin model is acting strange. not sure whats going on. Goes from a split PV at 10hpa at 00hr

 

 

To a reformed PV 24 hours later. 

 

 

Am I missing something? 

Yes thats very strange - see my new post of the model i found

[karyo]

When you say many other factors, that's my point. I don't think you could peg it on just one thing as being the cause.

Interestingly, the coldest spring on record, 1837, for the CET occurred at a solar maximum.

The severe cold of December 1870-January 1871 came just after solar max.

Winter 1916-17 came just before a solar max.

Winter 1928-29 came just after a solar max

Winter 1946-47 came just before a solar max,

Winter 1968-69 came at a solar max.

There is enough there for me to be a healthy sceptic.

I would discount the years just before a solar maximum as there is some lag time involved (although I am not sure how long that is). Also, those years were well before the global warming era.

[Dennis]

That SSW is still going to what i see

[bluearmy]

That SSW is still going to what i see

 

hi dennis - this is currently what is happening way above our heads. unfortunately, it doesnt seem to have any consequences for nw europe and the strat vortex will reform over the pole and drift towards n greenland.  (and as posted earlier, the berlin charts are corrupt today and showing some old data - probably from last year)

Edited January 4, 2015 by bluearmy

[Dennis]

hi dennis - this is currently what is happening way above our heads. unfortunately, it doesnt seem to have any consequences for nw europe and the strat vortex will reform over the pole and drift towards n greenland.  (and as posted earlier, the berlin charts are corrupt today and showing some old data - probably from last year)

 

NNE winds later when the situation around Greenland set more blocking 

[Angel Lahoz]

I sit(feel) my Englishman.

I go many days following(continuing) your comments stratosphere.

I also lover meteorology.

I am thinking about seeing pessimism last comments,

But I am not sure if we speak same

Problems...

You who are very technical have valued

The influence of the Gulf Stream?

For my opinion, very satisfied parón Atlantic cooling, for south Europe, from Spain where I live, I feel many,

A lot of(Many,Very) lines ensembles for the day to dividing(departing) 18 or 19 January.

It(He,She) is not very frequent to see a Spain to feel so happily north zone Saragossa, with-7 temp to 850 hpa and - 35 temp 500 hpa.

This is snow and cold in level zero.

My humble opinion, in spite of having last hot years, is to wait a few days for happiness, Gulf Stream, for my opinion and to see studies, can, owes, be mas important meteorological changes, that the stratosphere and troposfera.

Sea waters down Atlantic, this one bringing(reporting) temperature temperatures mas cold for the west, Atlantic fronts during winter and spring enclosedly June, they are entering with geopotenciales mas low and mas in the southern part parallel last years, with temporary maritime, ciclogenesis explosive, strong winds and soon, it(he,she) can come with snow and cold.

Good evening. And the spirit arrives.

[Angel Lahoz]

Ensembles very unánimes , 18,19 enero , varias salidas .

[Catacol]

Why is solar activity being blamed? It's not exactly the heights of some past maxima and winter 1978-79 occurred just before a maximum.

Cohen and co have said that the low pressure over the Barents-Kara region is causing the problems.

 

I agree - we cannot look at solar factors as the sole driver behind our weather patterns. That would be ridiculous.

 

BUT to my very amateur eye there is a decent correlation between high solar flux levels and the strength of tropospheric vortex, at least in the north atlantic. There will always be exceptions in a system impacted by so many factors, but in the last 15 years we have moved from a position where pros discounted solar factors altogether, to one where it is agreed now that solar factors ARE one of many that impact on the strength of prevaiing westerlies.

 

I mentioned this back in November... but I was concerned back then to see solar flux levels on the rise, and we are seeing another rise at present. Levels are now not far from those that we had last January... and back then - in a +QBO backed up by record low temperatures over the pole, we stood little chance of a real jolt to the circulation. Back in November I was met with responses that stuck to the current adage of "dont worry - the sun has rarely been so quiet around a solar maximum" but those reactions did seem to ignore flux trends over the last 12 months. 

 

The start we had to this winter, combined with a -QBO, seems to have increased our chances of getting at least 1 cold shot this winter via vortex disruption - but with flux levels on the rise I have to confess to being concerned that we might face a dominant westerly regime throughout the heart of our winter. 

 

We will see. I dont claim to be an expert - it is more a case of many years observation that have led me to this conclusion. I hope to be wrong in my gut feelings on this.

Edited January 4, 2015 by Catacol_Highlander

[Catacol]

Off topic I know, but perhaps mods might allow this to remain.

 

I had an extremely high opinion of GP (Stewart) when he was the main weather guide on here. Even though we are all disappointed at the moment by what is happening, it has been a fascinating winter in terms of signals vs reality, and the apparent success of the MetO prediction of an above average winter based on probability.

 

I suspect Stewart still scans these boards from time to time. Is there any way we can access - even if it were after the event - his thoughts on what this winter was likely to be? The contract he has must be very tight... but if anyone still is in contact with him (Ed perhaps?) might his bosses be prepared to allow enthusiasts to see his thoughts once winter is over?

 

Just a thought...

[Dennis]

Pls explain what this model shows when no real SSW?

[Interitus]

i think the bottom line is that the recent warming and wave breaking has been a fail.

although for the members that have put alot of effort into this study they pretty much said there be a warming at some point this winter and they pretty much nailed it.

 

Well my post from 20th November stated -

 

While something happening in early winter can't be ruled out the vortex at the moment to a is not very similar to a 2000/1 or 2009/10, but more like a 1984/5 or 2012/13 perhaps favouring an SSW early in the new year.

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81567-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20142015/page-24#entry3072681

 

The dates were Jan 1st for 1985 and Jan 6th for 2013 so not a bad guesstimate all in all. A bit disappointed that there is no wind reversal at the moment but this may follow at a later date and we are seeing a minor SSW - as with all meteorological predictions there is little that is set in stone

  

 

Just something I noticed. There is a pattern of warming every 4-5 weeks, it seems once we get to the strat season. So  just extrapolating, the next one would be end of Jan, beginning of Feb. gaining more heat each time. 

 

Trouble is a trend without a theory is just data mining potentially.  Still has not stopped the masses in the financial worlds believe in chartism.

 

Not sure one way or another with regards to the MJO but this isn't chartism - essentially the stratosphere vortex is in balance between thermoradiative relaxation, cooling and strengthening during the polar night before gradually warming with the returning sun later in the season, and perturbation primarily by planetary waves of numbers 1 or 2. As such there are often quasi-regular trends which show quite high levels of similarity between different years and which makes analogues a potentially meaningful approach.

A number of different parameters can be used such as from the MERRA dataset, but empirical and modelling data has shown that the significance varies by variable and atmospheric level - interestingly this is rarely around the 10mb level used to diagnose SSW.

This paper from 2014 by Jucker et al. shows some results from an idealised general circulation model - http://empslocal.ex.ac.uk/people/staff/gv219/papers/JFV14.pdf

So for example a well known factor from much research is heat flux at around the 100mb level - Jucker et al. confirm significance to peak at 97mb from their experiments.

Below is a graph of the MERRA 45-75°N 100mb heat flux over the past 30 days to 2/1/15, with the closest analogues for this variable during the last 15 days (up to point zero on the graph) as calculated by daily mean square difference, and projected for the next 70 days.

There appear to be a few similarities between the various years at times but the result is generally quite confused apart from the closeness of values during the analogue fitting period.

 

 

But the resulting 60°N 10mb wind of these analogue dates show that 3 out of the 4 events featured an SSW during or shortly after this point, suggesting it is perhaps unlucky that there is not major SSW now -

 

 

The 10mb wind for analogues derived from 150mb heat flux is more startling. With three different analogues included there are again 3 SSW, and the onset of these are all within a two-day period in 14/15 days time.

 

Edited January 4, 2015 by Interitus

[karyo]

Off topic I know, but perhaps mods might allow this to remain.

 

I had an extremely high opinion of GP (Stewart) when he was the main weather guide on here. Even though we are all disappointed at the moment by what is happening, it has been a fascinating winter in terms of signals vs reality, and the apparent success of the MetO prediction of an above average winter based on probability.

 

I suspect Stewart still scans these boards from time to time. Is there any way we can access - even if it were after the event - his thoughts on what this winter was likely to be? The contract he has must be very tight... but if anyone still is in contact with him (Ed perhaps?) might his bosses be prepared to allow enthusiasts to see his thoughts once winter is over?

 

Just a thought...

Fantastic idea!

[bluearmy]

Inertius - I also feel 'robbed' . From today's charts to next weekends is akin to the bayern Man u final.

Most of the experienced watchers expected a full on SSW to emerge from the forecasts a week ago. Just shows that even high up, that beast from the East can't be counted on until you can see the train. Hearing it just ain't good enough!

Real shame as the strat trop coupling was ripe for immediate down welling.

Surely Andrew must have finished his 'mission'. Come on mate - u can't let a woman get in the way of weather and football!

[aginob]

Hi to all here

Sorry my question ( Off Topic )

i have noticed however that many models will be posted without the Source

( i noted that here in the forum are published many models but without revealing the source )

ho notato che qui nel Forum vengono pubblicati molti Modelli ma senza rivelare la Fonte

ich habe festgestellt dass hier im Forum viele Modelle veröffentlicht werden aber ohne offenlegung der Quelle

 

Please post the Source ( courtesy ) of the Weather Models ... Thanks ! )

Example: Page 57 post #3105815 ... post #3105868 and many other

Models from Recretos i can understand ( make Recretos ... Privatly )

i understand that many weather models are extra or pay but more other are free

Sorry again ...

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I very much agree with this post.we may have to wait a few years, until the sun enters it's long slumber, but have a feeling the wait will be worth it.. Very cold UK winters may continue from 2017/18 onwards. All the positive background signals in favour of a cold winter this year (high SAI, very negative Opi, -QBO,good strat signals, busted up PV, etc) may have all been outweighed by the solar output. This is just my opinion and maybe brushed aside by the more knowledgeable folk in here, but if the next solar min is a deep one and our winters start getting colder again around 2018/19 then exciting weather forecasting times lie ahead

We are already in the slumber, this talk of high solar output doesn't ring true.  Yes its solar maxima but its a low solar maxima heading towards a Grand Minima.

For me there is more warming/s to come and full effects likely at end of month into early Feb as a timescale.

 

BFTP

[yellow snow]

We are already in the slumber, this talk of high solar output doesn't ring true.  Yes its solar maxima but its a low solar maxima heading towards a Grand Minima.

For me there is more warming/s to come and full effects likely at end of month into early Feb as a timescale.

 

BFTP

^ this.

The winter has just begun. We are barely in the beginning of January. Even though it's obvious it has been a disappointment so far there are a few things important to remember. Both the OPI and the snow cover have next to none correlation with Dec temps. The further we go into Jan, the higher the correlation is. We have a minor event on its way leaving the reformed vortex vulnerable.

I must admit I have been a bit nagative the last week or so as the signs of the MJO entering phase 6 at a high amplitude have weakened. It is however my view that the input looks much more positive today on several parameters. Firstly there seem to have been a significant change with regards to the realized MJO. The actual figures today no longer shows it way out in phase 3 and the EC ens forecast have it far out in phase 6 mid Jan. This corresponds with the ensm's again showing significant high pressure anom west of Greenland, to the north east of Scandi and the Aleutian low rebuilding. As linked to in previous posts by others this is a good setup for a new increase in wave activity. What worries me a bit is that some enms material now push the Atlantic trough in over or Scandi in the back end, thereby AGAIN pushing the strong Siberian high eastwards. Anyways this seem to give a period of NAO neutral weather with colder temps, but could be more negative in the long run.

The seemingly change in realized MJO values puzzles me a bit though. If someone can shed some light on this please do.