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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
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Posted (edited)

attachicon.gifRtavn3842.gif :rofl:

 

... and theres your pattern change in week three! :laugh:

 

And here's the NH charts for that date

 

npst30.png

 

 

PV obliterated

 

npsh500.png

 

Cold pattern bedding in soon after IMO

Edited by CreweCold
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Bristawl Si Maestro

Bristawl Si

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
Posted

attachicon.gifRtavn3842.gif :rofl:

 

... and theres your pattern change in week three! :laugh:

Preceded by a pretty cold week by the look of things.....possibly.

And that's possibly to both of the mentioned scenarios.

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Barry12 Seasoned

Barry12

Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
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Posted

attachicon.gifRtavn3842.gif :rofl:

 

... and theres your pattern change in week three! :laugh:

 

It's great when you have to go all the way to day 16 to find mild.

 

At day 7/8 we have this:

 

gfsnh-0-174.png?12gfsnh-1-204.png?12

 

If it was a bartlett at day 7/8 it would be nailed on :)

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

Then we have GEM's take on next weekend, +12c uppers flirting with the south:

 

post-14819-0-36290200-1417798504_thumb.p   post-14819-0-44246500-1417798515_thumb.p

 

:D  :D  :D

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

to pm anyone, see link below, click on envelope sign top right,  after clicking on persons name on posted chart, create message, click send, well that is what I do and it seems to work?

 

post-847-0-58147300-1417798608_thumb.png

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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted

And here's the NH charts for that date

 

npst30.png

 

 

PV obliterated

 

npsh500.png

 

Cold pattern bedding in soon after IMO

 

really?... just supposing that charts came off, which must be 99-1 against, that bartlett could site there for months. it did in feb 80, and 82. (or thereabouts). the point being that a pattern change doesnt automatically mean itll get cold.

 

Preceded by a pretty cold week by the look of things.....possibly.

And that's possibly to both of the mentioned scenarios.

 

true.

 

It's great when you have to go all the way to day 16 to find mild.

 

At day 7/8 we have this:

 

gfsnh-0-174.png?12gfsnh-1-204.png?12

 

If it was a bartlett at day 7/8 it would be nailed on :)

 

lighten up barry...its clearly a joke, based on the much talked about up coming expected pattern change in week 3. :)

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted (edited)

I've noticed that Wednesday's low has trended slightly further south with every 6 hourly GFS run so far today, if that trends continues, stongest winds further spreading further south.

 

As other's have mentioned - an interesting GFS op evolution as the deep low continues to across southern Norway, bulk of the low heights shifting east over the Norwegian Sea, allowing a ridge to amplify into southern Greenland - giving us a 48hr+ northerly end of week/next weekend rather than a much shorter one as earlier runs. Long way off though and we need the upper trough/surface storm over NE Canada/NE USA to not exit quickly into the NW Atlantic as per 00z ECM - though I don't think our fellow american model watchers have a great deal of faith in their model. But we await the ECMWF, 12z GEM doesn't loiter too much with that low.

Edited by Nick F
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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted

to pm anyone, see link below, click on envelope sign top right,  after clicking on persons name on posted chart, create message, click send, well that is what I do and it seems to work?

 

attachicon.gifnet wx pm bit.png

 

cant pm you...or is that just me? lol

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted (edited)

cant pm you...or is that just me? lol

 

I'll check my inbox is not full mushy-rarely check it these days=blushes got wrong name!

Edited by johnholmes
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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

So NOAA have spent many tens of millions on a model upgrade and it seems all they needed to do was lose some input data to get their current one to give better stats!!

more relevant comment after GEFS and ECM. I doubt ECM can go as amplified as that gfs did.

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

I'll check my inbox is not full frosty-rarely check it these days

 

all cleared now back to early November!

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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted

all cleared now back to early November!

 

get a red bar message saying youve chosen not to recieve new pms from me.... thats fine if thats the case, if not theres a fault. i can pm others.

 

sorry mods, these can be deleted of course just give us a mo :)

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Recretos Seasoned

Recretos

Posted
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL
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Posted

Just a comparison for a little tease is the chart for the same date in 1962. The vortex 50 years ago was much stronger!

archivesnh-1962-12-13-0-0.png

 

Actually, it looks/was weaker, because it has more meridional momentum component and lower general angular momentum.

 

And as far as strat goes, it was also weaker, with a wave2/3 event in progress, ultimately down the line leading to the 1963 split SSW. :)

z-in-netcdf-atls03-20141.png 30.png 11111.png 234.png

 

hgtao1962.gif

 

wfg.png asas.png

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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted (edited)

Regarding the eastern seaboard low next week the NCep GFS has it here at T120 and there it stays filling in situ. But a little later another forms just to the north which eventually travels to the Denmark Straight.

Chart courtesy weatherbell

post-12275-0-56548400-1417800344_thumb.p

Edited by knocker
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Recretos Seasoned

Recretos

Posted
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL
Posted

 From experience i find the 12z and 00z run the most accurate out of the 4 runs! ! 

 

Well. according to actual data for day6 and day8 forecasts, its 00z and 18z that are statistically the best so far. 

 

corday6hgtp500g2nhx.png corday8hgtp500g2nhx.png

 

On the 12z multi model stats, the para GFS (PRX) was actually not that far behind ECM, and better than normal GFS.

 

corday6hgtp500g2nhx-1.png corday10hgtp500g2nhx.png

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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
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Posted

This past 18 hours ( leading on from my post last night ) shows that using the 10 day mean, the 16 day Mean & the CFS mean is pretty useless, the models are picking up on the jet dropping a LONg way south over the NE states which is encouraging heights further & further North ahead of it-

 

Note the negative tilted low at 114 in the states ( remember what was said yesterday)

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014120512/gfsna-0-114.png?12

& the deep digging of the jet

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014120512/gfsna-5-114.png?12

 

Now compare the same yesterday

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsna-2014120412-0-138.png?12

Off the coast nearly.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsna-2014120512-5-138.png?12

Poor amplitude of the wave

 

 

 

In summary, when you get these deep circular lows the models start with initially pushing them through, however often they can change the wavelength & the pattern...

 

UKMO 144 is at first glance not quite as good at 144 however would deliver another polar strike 12 hours later - also at a lower latitude....

 

all in all good runs with patterns beginning to change....

 

S

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

It won't surprise many that the GFS op was the coldest run amongst the ensembles for London for next weekend and the control was the warmest:

 

post-14819-0-89771800-1417800847_thumb.g

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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted

This past 18 hours ( leading on from my post last night ) shows that using the 10 day mean, the 16 day Mean & the CFS mean is pretty useless, the models are picking up on the jet dropping a LONg way south over the NE states which is encouraging heights further & further North ahead of it-

 

Note the negative tilted low at 114 in the states ( remember what was said yesterday)

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014120512/gfsna-0-114.png?12

& the deep digging of the jet

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014120512/gfsna-5-114.png?12

 

Now compare the same yesterday

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsna-2014120412-0-138.png?12

Off the coast nearly.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsna-2014120512-5-138.png?12

Poor amplitude of the wave

 

 

 

In summary, when you get these deep circular lows the models start with initially pushing them through, however often they can change the wavelength & the pattern...

 

UKMO 144 is at first glance not quite as good at 144 however would deliver another polar strike 12 hours later - also at a lower latitude....

 

all in all good runs with patterns beginning to change....

 

S

 

But surely that's a positive tilted low?

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted (edited)

Ignoring the GFS op as it looks an outlier. The GEFS mean for D16 continues the NH theme to displace the Canadian/Greenland PV lobe. More towards the Siberian region tonight:

 

post-14819-0-84961300-1417802165_thumb.p

 

So as would be expected a cluster of more amplified members at that time scale. So the last third of December remains the most likely for a pattern change still.

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted

Not really no - the winds in the eastern quadrant ( the 114 chart ) are SE - not SW... indicative of high pressure ridging ahead of it.-

 

FWI the ECM was all over it on the 00z

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014120500/ECH1-144.GIF?05-12

 

S

 

Come off it. The axis of that trough is NE to SW which makes it a positive tilted trough in my book. The definition, as far as I'm aware, is not conditionall on high pressure ridging ahead of it.

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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
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Posted

Ignoring the GFS op as it looks an outlier. The GEFS mean for D16 continues the NH theme to displace the Canadian/Greenland PV lobe. More towards the Siberian region tonight:

 

 

So as would be expected a cluster of more amplified members at that time scale. So the last third of December remains the most likely for a pattern change still.

 

Things are looking good when your resorting to the day 16 mean IDO.... meanwhile ...........

 

snow piling up for Scotland -west next weekend....

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_12_UTC/192_35.gif

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