Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter

[Polar Maritime]

I'm saying the models are wrong in their longer outlook. The pattern will become more amplified due to the solar and lunar effects.....and as if by magic the 06z rolls out.

 

 

BFTP

 

These are very sweeping statements Blast, The Models have been wrong in there longer outlook for a good while due to conflicting upstream signals at this time of year. What/Where do you look at reg Solar/Moon influences at such short notice? I understand the broad long term solar cycle's in 'influencing' weather patterns over N/Europe. But how can one put so much 'faith' in such minor anomalies and discount all the others, Which at best are not understood to the scale of which can be used in forecasting stood alone. Are you saying the slight amplification model'd in the 'Magic' 6z run is due to the Sun and Moon, Even though the Models are wrong with there longer outlook?

Edited December 5, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[mountain shadow]

Deepest fi of course, but here's hoping the semi permanent PV lobe in Southern Greenland is on its way out. Proper upper heights into Greenland and longer term cold spell would surely follow..

 

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20141205/06/384/npsh500.png

 

In the meantime some decent cold snaps for the North and West. Wind chill currently below freezing in the Provence.

[mushymanrob]

Perhaps the winds of change starting to blow tonight in terms of the model suites - Deep bomb lows have lead to rapid increase in pressure over Scandi before-

 

Look at this historic chart

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1991/archivesnh-1991-2-2-0-0.png

 

people say its curtains for the UK with deep lows moving East off the states - well they don't come deeper than that- 

 

just 5 days later

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1991/archivesnh-1991-2-5-12-0.png

 

hmmm.... thats not quite true is it steve, looking at the charts for late jan 91, there was alot of high pressure around, over the uk in particular!

 

to my eyes it looks like the high pressure was already here (thus not 'rapdly increasing), naturally followed a much trodden evolutionary path over several days to become the scandi high depicted in

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1991/archivesnh-1991-2-5-12-0.png

now whether it was totally because of that deep low is open to speculation, but its clear that the general synoptics from winter 91 are not the same as those we have today.... its clear that the upper air flow is not what we have today (and are expected to get). so whether your point is spot on, or abit of hopecasting, is irrelevant.  the point is that theres no real comparison as these noaa charts dont allow for a surface high of the magnitude over the uk that the charts from '91 will show. its also clear the the jet is on a totally different orientation to todays too.

 

so i dont think a 'sudden rapid rise in pressure over scandinavia' is plausible as long as these charts remain like this. (of course im open to be corrected if im interpreting thing incorrectly )

 

 

unless im mistaken, this looks distinctly like an upper flow north of west, backing to a westerly in chart 2 with slight pressure rising to the south. which would result in an ever changing pattern with wet and windy weather, colder pm air next week but not so much in week 2. average, normal december weather, not mild but not overly cold either.

[Due South]

These are very sweeping statements Blast, The Models have been wrong in there longer outlook for a good while due to conflicting upstream signals at this time of year. What/Where do you look at reg Solar/Moon influences at such short notice? I understand the broad long term solar cycle's in 'influencing' weather patterns over N/Europe. But how can one put so much 'faith' in such minor anomalies and discount all the others, Which at best are not understood to the scale of which can be used in forecasting stood alone. Are you saying the slight amplification model'd in the 'Magic' 6z run is due to the Sun and Moon, Even though the Models are wrong with there longer outlook?

I Don't think it is a sweeping statement PM.

It's wether or not you believe the SUN is the major influnence on our weather. Know i'm not saying it is the only influnence. But the major player. It would be interesting if someone could look back at the archives. When there has been a major turnaround in our weather ( model's ) at short notice. Did it co-inside with Solar Flare's being released from the Sun.

Who Know's there may be a link.

[Polar Maritime]

Who Know's there may be a link.

 

Exactly my point.. And is that 'link' strong enough to use stand alone against the Model's?

 

Anyway back to the 'Model Output's' please.  

Edited December 5, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[bluearmy]

mushy - i tend to agree with you but whilst GEFS runs throw the odd few runs out in the ens, i'm loathe to discount it completely.

 

certainly plenty of amplified members on view as we progress through week 2 when many are saying that there is no room for any amplification

[Frosty.]

Zero change in MO update with very unsettled and windy spells and showers turning wintry at times between bouts of heavy rain and gales. The models look colder and more wintry today, especially the 6z with increased amplification with more of a Northerly component at times..the MO outlook applies broad brush strokes with less emphasis on possible colder incursions within the overall disturbed and generally chilly outlook.

Edited December 5, 2014 by Frosty.

[Nouska]

hmmm.... thats not quite true is it steve, looking at the charts for late jan 91, there was alot of high pressure around, over the uk in particular!

 

Rrea00119910124.gif Rrea00119910127.gif Rrea00119910130.gif

to my eyes it looks like the high pressure was already here (thus not 'rapdly increasing), naturally followed a much trodden evolutionary path over several days to become the scandi high depicted in

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1991/archivesnh-1991-2-5-12-0.png

now whether it was totally because of that deep low is open to speculation, but its clear that the general synoptics from winter 91 are not the same as those we have today.... its clear that the upper air flow is not what we have today (and are expected to get). so whether your point is spot on, or abit of hopecasting, is irrelevant.  the point is that theres no real comparison as these noaa charts dont allow for a surface high of the magnitude over the uk that the charts from '91 will show. its also clear the the jet is on a totally different orientation to todays too.

 

so i dont think a 'sudden rapid rise in pressure over scandinavia' is plausible as long as these charts remain like this. (of course im open to be corrected if im interpreting thing incorrectly )

 

610day.03.gif814day.03.gif

 

unless im mistaken, this looks distinctly like an upper flow north of west, backing to a westerly in chart 2 with slight pressure rising to the south. which would result in an ever changing pattern with wet and windy weather, colder pm air next week but not so much in week 2. average, normal december weather, not mild but not overly cold either.

 

Now, winter 90/91 is a good example of how a SSW can completely change our fortunes and fly in the face of the OPI index value! A very cold vortex is no match for a strong warming in the right place.

 

Watch the animation of the stratosphere in conjunction with the archived 500mb polar pattern on the Meteociel.

 

http://curriculum.pmartineau.webfactional.com/wp-content/svw_gallery/test/gif/1991_01_28.gif

 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=20&month=1&hour=0&year=1991&map=4&mode=2

 

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Below is from Matt Hugo on Twitter:-

An interesting 30hPa chart from the 06Z GFS...It's (strat vortex) days are number if that chart is anything to go by.

Edited December 5, 2014 by No Balls Like Snow Balls

[Frosty.]

I have to say the chances of snow are slim to zero away from the Scottish mountains and it looks very like the cool zonal pattern we had last winter sadly due to occasional milder days.

Edited December 5, 2014 by Frosty.

[nick sussex]

Further to my earlier post regarding the pattern over in the USA some interesting discussions in several state forecasts:

 

So from New York:

 

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO CROP UP BETWEEN THE MODELS AS WE
MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK REGARDING THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE THAT WILL AFFECT THE NORTHEAST DURING THE EARLY PART OF
THE COMING WEEK...STEMMING FROM CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF PHASING BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE
JET STREAM. THIS ULTIMATELY WILL AFFECT THE TIMING OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM`S ARRIVAL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND HOW QUICKLY IT
CLEARS OUT OF THE REGION...WITH THE GFS FEATURING A FASTER LOWER
AMPLITUDE SOLUTION AS COMPARED TO THE SLOWER...DEEPER AMPLITUDE

ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS.

 

I'm  not sure they've taken into account the GFS 06hrs run as that has trended more towards the ECM, now from the New Hampshire state forecast:

 

UNLIKE THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS IS
LACKING.  THE ECMWF HAS HAD GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH
DEVELOPING A COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NANTUCKET AND
THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.  UNTIL THE 00Z RUN LAST NIGHT...THE GFS HAS
ALSO DEVELOPED A COASTAL LOW WITH A LITTLE LESS CERTAINTY ON THE
TRACK.  SINCE THEN AND CONTINUED IN THE 05/00Z RUN...THE GFS HAS
COMPLETELY DISPENSED WITH THE COASTAL LOW AND HAS OPTED FOR HIGH
PRESSURE.

MOST OF THE MEMBERS OF THE 05/00Z RUN OF THE GEFS AGREE WITH THE
OPERATIONAL GFS.  HOWEVER...THERE ARE SEVERAL MEMBERS THAT ARE MORE
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF.  GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF AND
THE MEMBERS OF THE GFS THAT AGREE WITH THE ECMWF AM LENDING A BIT
MORE CREDENCE TO THE ECMWF BUT THE CONSISTENCY OF THE GFS OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS GIVES ME PAUSE.  AM OPTING TO GO WITH A BLEND OF
THE SOLUTIONS WITH A LITTLE BIT MORE WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF WHILE WE
WAIT ON FURTHER MODEL RUNS.  THIS SYSTEM IS STEMMING FROM ENERGY
ALONG THE WEST COAST AS WELL AS SOME ENERGY IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES
OF CANADA.  THESE SYSTEMS ARE GENERALLY VERY HARD TO FORECAST WITH
THE LACK OF DATA IN THIS REGION.

 

The sum total of the above discussion is that we could be seeing many of those 00hrs GEFS members completely wrong because the coastal low plays a significant role in how the pattern develops thereafter, Equally we could be looking at the same amongst the ECM ensembles if they have the coastal low which turns out to be wrong.

 

Perhaps the most interesting news from the discussions was this from the final part of the updated NY discussion and this is significant:

 

LOOKING DEEPER INTO NEXT WEEK...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A
CONSIDERABLE WARMUP ACROSS THE REGION AS GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENTLY
POINT TO SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW UPSTREAM WITH A
STRONG RIDGE CROSSING THE UNITED STATES.

 

I'm not sure the models will be really on the ball at this point re that renewed amplification and this type of change can see dramatic changes in the NWP so we'll see  if anything comes of this in the coming days.

 

The PV will react to this type of amplification so if this does occur then the rounded PV blob to the north cannot verify, you'll more likely see a stretching of this and as shortwaves head across the USA and Canada and engage this the PV will be drawn further to the nw, this is especially important because of the suggestion that high pressure over Russia will try and edge west.

 

The question remains though whether the PV can get drawn sufficiently away to allow better trough disruption near the UK and for the Russian high to take a bigger role.

 

 

Edited December 5, 2014 by nick sussex

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

These are very sweeping statements Blast, The Models have been wrong in there longer outlook for a good while due to conflicting upstream signals at this time of year. What/Where do you look at reg Solar/Moon influences at such short notice? I understand the broad long term solar cycle's in 'influencing' weather patterns over N/Europe. But how can one put so much 'faith' in such minor anomalies and discount all the others, Which at best are not understood to the scale of which can be used in forecasting stood alone. Are you saying the slight amplification model'd in the 'Magic' 6z run is due to the Sun and Moon, Even though the Models are wrong with there longer outlook?

 

They aren't sweeping PM, I believe that output from the sun eg solar flares, coronal mass eruptions if earthward pointing will have an effect on the jetstream.  Just like I think lunar apogee, perigee, new moon and full moon also help modulate weather patterns.  Its in my LRF, timings are there not because of 'new signals that have appeared'.  I'm not discounting any other anomalies / teleconnections as they are factored in my LRF......there's no change to my thoughts overall.  I just think with a very flat outlook the models are barking up the wrong tree and I think we will see more amplification from now due to these tweaking influences on the jetstream.  Like I say, I'm looking for tweaking and more amplification, not a complete pattern change...that will come at some stage if the background signals that most of us are using are correct in their influence.  Let's see how we pan out over the next week.

Anyway onto the model discussion as you request

 

 

 

BFTP

Edited December 5, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[bluearmy]

But nick, it states 'consistently' re the ridge coming across. The models are clear on this. Sorry to 'poop on your parade' so to speak!

[nick sussex]

But nick, it states 'consistently' re the ridge coming across. The models are clear on this. Sorry to 'poop on your parade' so to speak!

Yes but the ridge amplification is important, its not a flat high, they obviously expect a southerly to develop as the high edges east.

[Nouska]

I Don't think it is a sweeping statement PM.

It's wether or not you believe the SUN is the major influnence on our weather. Know i'm not saying it is the only influnence. But the major player. It would be interesting if someone could look back at the archives. When there has been a major turnaround in our weather ( model's ) at short notice. Did it co-inside with Solar Flare's being released from the Sun.

Who Know's there may be a link.

 

Some recent research has postulated a connection but it is not instant and not from very isolated bursts of energy particles.

 

http://journal.frontiersin.org/Journal/10.3389/fphy.2014.00025/full?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=Physics-w18-2014

[Frosty.]

They aren't sweeping PM, I believe that output from the sun eg solar flares, coronal mass eruptions if earthward pointing will have an effect on the jetstream.  Just like I think lunar apogee, perigee, new moon and full moon also help modulate weather patterns.  Its in my LRF, timings are there not because of 'new signals that have appeared'.  I'm not discounting any other anomalies / teleconnections as they are factored in my LRF......there's no change to my thoughts overall.  I just think with a very flat outlook the models are barking up the wrong tree and I think we will see more amplification from now due to these tweaking influences on the jetstream.  Like I say, I'm looking for tweaking and more amplification, not a complete pattern change...that will come at some stage if the background signals that most of us are using are correct in their influence.  Let's see how we pan out over the next week.

 

 

 

BFTP

Looking further ahead the MO indicate average to slightly above temperatures with no sign of a proper cold snap let alone cold spell. Clearly there is nothing wintry of note in the pipeline, so it looks like temps will be at 6's and 7's and occasionally nearer 10 or 11 Celsius but with occasional frosts in the quieter intervals between Atlantic systems.

[Captain Shortwave]

Some postulations about the coming couple of weeks based on the monthly models

JMA and the Beijing climate models show the potential of a even chillier week 2 compared to this week as heights become more amplified upstream. The flow would suggest a continuation of a north westerly, but perhaps enough to bring snow to low levels at times in the north. Low heights at present continue to look to be draining from Greenland towards the UK and into Europe.

JMA suggest a milder end to the month, but the Chinese model again suggests northern blocking to become established around the turn of January as the Atlantic ridge amplifies enough to connect with the Siberian high advancing westwards. This has been a consistent signal for the past few weeks.

So the next 7 days look chilly with temperatures a little below normal, week 2 looks a little colder with snow to low levels possible at times. Beyond some tentative signals of what could possibly happen and have been predicted by many on here to occur.

Edited December 5, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[phil nw.]

Let,s keep on topic please all.

There are other threads for Met outlooks and Solar influences.

Thanks.

[NorthernRab]

I have to say the chances of snow are slim to zero away from the Scottish mountains and it looks very like the cool zonal pattern we had last winter sadly due to occasional milder days.

Since when did northern and western Scotland (with its towns and cities) start being referred to as the Scottish mountains? Millions of people could very well see considerable snow under this set up, not just a bunch of deer.

[Frosty.]

Let,s keep on topic please all.

There are other threads for Met outlooks and Solar influences.

Thanks.

Yes but on the other hand, we need to keep things grounded in reality rather than fantasy and the Experts don't see any sign of a cold spell out to mid / late january no matter how we interprit things transpiring in the weeks ahead. Edited December 5, 2014 by Frosty.

[mountain shadow]

I have to say the chances of snow are slim to zero away from the Scottish mountains and it looks very like the cool zonal pattern we had last winter sadly due to occasional milder days.

Well, THE MODELS showed the chance of sleet/snow today for my local and it did indeed snow today, and the last time I checked I don't live up a Scottish mountain.

[Buxton Codge]

I have to say the chances of snow are slim to zero away from the Scottish mountains and it looks very like the cool zonal pattern we had last winter sadly due to occasional milder days.

This pattern is a lot better than last year. Although I agree it looks unlikely that most of us will see any snow for a while yet

[winterof79]

I have to say the chances of snow are slim to zero away from the Scottish mountains and it looks very like the cool zonal pattern we had last winter sadly due to occasional milder days.

I would say this will be a cool/cold period of weather coming up.Starting this evening.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2014/12/05/basis06/ukuk/tmp2/14120606_0506.gif

I cannot recall many frosts by the end of last winter let alone 5 days in.

 

JFF Yesterday the CFS was quoted on picking up the new trend of being flat into the New year not today

.http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014120500/run1m/cfsnh-0-888.png?00 

Only 888hrs to wait..... Cant wait for GFS  // model to be back online.

[phil nw.]

Yes but on the other hand, we need to keep things grounded in reality rather than fantasy and the Experts don't see any sign of a cold spell out to mid / late january no matter how we interprit things transpiring in the weeks ahead.

We can still give our own views though Frosty,that is the purpose of this thread.

Let,s keep to the next 2/3 weeks and our own views in here rather than write off half the Winter already..

OK back on topic now.

Cheers.

[Nick F]

Since when did northern and western Scotland (with its towns and cities) start being referred to as the Scottish mountains? Millions of people could very well see considerable snow under this set up, not just a bunch of deer.

 

GFS certainly suggestive of any showers/precip falling as snow to lower levels from Sunday across Scotland and other northern areas as the colder air digs in behind the cold front clearing southern areas. Dew points widely 0C or below Wales and Midlands north Sun daytime, then across all areas on Monday. Brief milder interlude on Tuesday ahead of the deep Atlantic system passing Iceland Weds, then cold air returns with snow prospects increasing across Scotland, even to lower levels.

Edited December 5, 2014 by Nick F