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Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas

BlueHedgehog074

By BlueHedgehog074
in Forecast Model Discussion

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carinthian Maestro

carinthian

Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
Posted (edited)

Looking at this latest GFS run ops and para , I am in complete shock at the massive turnaround in 24 hours. We need help , what is going on? A disaster for the Alpine Ski -resorts for the Christmas Holidays. Coats off and sleeve sweaters for you guys . Surely this run is not right ? We knew it was going to a mild Christmas here, but for you guys, some snow was on the cards. That has been fobbed away, yet again. Hopefully, tomorrow will see a correction to the 18z run.

 C

 Well if this run comes off, it will be one of the greatest model switch a rounds of all time. Yesterday on the 27th December we had a air mass flow that originated in the high Russian Arctic, tonight we have a flow from Northwest Africa and Canaries!

 I am sure there will be a correction tomorrow.

 C

Edited by carinthian
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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

What's the difference then?

Rtavn1921.gif

 

This is the typical Bartlett. 

 

111020115502.gif

 

Nope. This my friend is the real definition of a true Bartlett High.

 

post-17277-0-72504700-1418944864_thumb.g

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Barry12 Seasoned

Barry12

Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
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Posted

Well if there is a pattern change looming its looking like being one to mild if the current gfs runs are anything to go by lol

 

Yes, very mild...

 

gfs-1-288.png?18

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fergieweather Maestro

fergieweather

Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
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Posted

Sorry: What on earth is a 'Bartlett' high??? Never heard the term other than here. The charts people post supposedly showing 'it' are just continental highs or the like... mystifying.

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

Well if this run comes off, it will be one of the greatest model switch a rounds of all time. Yesterday on the 27th December we had a air mass flow that originated in the high Russian Arctic, tonight we have a flow from Northwest Africa and Canaries!

 I am sure there will be a correction tomorrow.

 C

this is what bloomin happens when we have a warm summer and high pressure is constantly across europe all summer!! Theres always a chance it could stick around into the winter aswell and pay for it which is what's happening right now!! The alpine region is really suffering with lack of snow at the moment and it also made news headlines the other day!!
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JP1972 Contributor

JP1972

Posted
  • Location: Newcastle upon Tyne
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters and cool, wet summers.
  • Location: Newcastle upon Tyne
Posted

I'm sure this post will get deleted but what the heck.

 

I log on here tonight to be told the models are carp, to be binned, are great, or show potential!

 

What is a novice to believe or indeed learn from such an array of opinions?!

 

As a lurker of about 4 or 5 years, I have learned one thing though (straws at the ready). And that is when the various model outputs struggle to find the same hymn sheet let alone sing from it, interesting model watching ensues. I'm starting to think this years Net Weather Winter forecast might be on the money in terms of a cold heart to Winter.

 

And as much as people deride the Meto further outlook (yes I know this can change rather quickly), while they aren't foreseeing anything particularly extreme or severe in terms of cold I'm happy to go along with their thoughts.

 

Looking at the latest charts and chucking in a bit of intuition, I'm going for a 2 day Northerly around Boxing Day followed by more mild weather. What early New Year brings is where we should be focussing our attentions in my humble opinion.

 

As you were ...

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fergieweather Maestro

fergieweather

Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
Posted

Sorry: What on earth is a 'Bartlett' high??? Never heard the term other than here. The charts people post supposedly showing 'it' are just continental highs or the like... mystifying.

Edit. Just Googled it. Some informal/undefined lexicon used on some weather boards apparently...

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carinthian Maestro

carinthian

Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
Posted

this is what bloomin happens when we have a warm summer and high pressure is constantly across europe all summer!! Theres always a chance it could stick around into the winter aswell and pay for it which is what's happening right now!! The alpine region is really suffering with lack of snow at the moment and it also made news headlines the other day!!

Strange really, as we always get high pressure across Europe in Summer for most of the time. Last year was a great season for snow in the Alpine Ski -resort, this despite one of the mildest winters on record across much of Lowland Europe. There is no reasoning to what will materialize.

C

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Banbury Experienced

Banbury

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
Posted

Sorry: What on earth is a 'Bartlett' high??? Never heard the term other than here. The charts people post supposedly showing 'it' are just continental highs or the like... mystifying.

Paul Bartlett was a former forecaster for the Met Office , the term ' Bartlett High' was linked to Paul.......not sure exactly how , I am sure some on here could tell you.

 

Surprised you haven't heard of him??

 

Paul passed away nearly 3 years ago

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lorenzo Maestro

lorenzo

Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx
Posted

Edit. Just Googled it. Some informal/undefined lexicon used on some weather boards apparently...

 

Thankfully the exemplar 'slug' of a chart doesn't appear too often. Link where it was christened here http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/node/117 and here https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en#!msg/uk.sci.weather/OWaVXlmYlis/cskUin3H5kAJ for those interested or with difficulty sleeping.

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Bristawl Si Maestro

Bristawl Si

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
Posted

Model runs all over the place - changes afoot more than likely.

Give it another 2 to 3 days for things to settle down, in terms of model run output.

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Great Plum Rising Star

Great Plum

Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 78m asl
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 78m asl
Posted

Edit. Just Googled it. Some informal/undefined lexicon used on some weather boards apparently...

Hi Ian,

See: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/67869-bartlett-set-up/

It's a difficult thing to define but it is known as the winter killer on here!

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Catacol Maestro

Catacol

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
Posted (edited)

Edit. Just Googled it. Some informal/undefined lexicon used on some weather boards apparently...

 

Named after Paul Bartlett - who years ago (I forget how many now...) had his name put to a Euro high that throws southerlies up over the UK. It is the closest thing to a forum hand grenade that any mild lover can throw into the model threads during winter,,, :-)

 

Especially depressing of course if the euro "bartlett" actually comes to pass...

 

EDIT: just found the original thread - it was a discussion back in 1998...

Edited by Catacol_Highlander
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Jason M Experienced

Jason M

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
Posted

Edit. Just Googled it. Some informal/undefined lexicon used on some weather boards apparently...

For examples, Just look at any chart from the winter of 1988. It was invented to help those of us who lived through that winter to deal with the mental scarring that followed. Unfortunately it has simply helped to prolong the suffering as everyone now fears a repeat. It was so named after Paul Bartlett (from memory), who I think was credited with predicting that the pattern of a self reinforcing euro high would remain in place all winter that year.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
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Posted

Can we have a 4 week freeze please fergie..I think after all our efforts today we deserve that much..thanks in advance :-)

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SE Blizzards Rising Star

SE Blizzards

Posted
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow/Blizzards in Winter, Cool Summers. (I'm allergic to heat)!
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
Posted (edited)

Any news on the ensembles? Better or worse?

 

Ens out to day 10 and some of them look absolutely stunning....

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=252&size=

 

Day 10 mean...

 

gensnh-21-1-240.png?18

Edited by SE Blizzards
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fergieweather Maestro

fergieweather

Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
Posted

For examples, Just look at any chart from the winter of 1988. It was invented to help those of us who lived through that winter to deal with the mental scarring that followed. Unfortunately it has simply helped to prolong the suffering as everyone now fears a repeat. It was so named after Paul Bartlett (from memory), who I think was credited with predicting that the pattern of a self reinforcing euro high would remain in place all winter that year.

Gotcha. Thanks for replies.

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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
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Posted

Last one from me tonight

 

GFS ensembles are firming up on the Greenland high.....

 

MEAN at 216 much better

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-21-1-216.png?18

 

Remember another 24 hours & the GFS will be on the right page.....

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=15&mode=0&carte=1

something like this ideally

 

S

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lorenzo Maestro

lorenzo

Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx
Posted

If you like some extreme charts have a meander through the 18z GEFS http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=6&ech=216 click forward from here, some eye watering offerings in there...

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Jason M Experienced

Jason M

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
Posted

GEFS out to day 11 look good to me. As you would expect at that range there is scatter, with some mild runs but there are some real good ones as well.

Overall, I finish today happy with this set!

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted

Ens out to day 10 and some of them look absolutely stunning....

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=252&size=

Day 10 mean...

gensnh-21-1-240.png?18

Much more like ECM mean then. Always a very, very good thing when the ens means are in agreement - v unlikely to be WILDLY wrong. Will it be consolidated in 8 hours time?

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inghams85 Community Regular

inghams85

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Location: Rotherham
Posted

If you like some extreme charts have a meander through the 18z GEFS http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=6&ech=216 click forward from here, some eye watering offerings in there...

Peturbation 4 is what im expecting with the gradual shift east of the -NAO by Sunday/Monday on the models (along with the north easterly and then easterly following)

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