Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas

[Thundery wintry showers]

Post-Christmas is looking decidedly uncertain.  The main concern for snow lovers is that the build of pressure to the S and SE around the 25th-27th may prove hard to shift and we could get shortwaves repeatedly forming around Iceland, preventing any northerlies from establishing for more than about 24 hours.  However, to be honest the GFS 06Z and 12Z look like an implausible mess at around T+168, most likely overdoing the amount of shortwave activity, forming several shallow lows.

 

In these situations I would tend to back the ECMWF and NOAA 8-14 day outlook over the GFS, suggesting a brief mild interlude around the 26th/27th followed by cold northerlies and north-westerlies, though as mentioned earlier, how cold is somewhat open to question.  For example if this morning's ECMWF 00Z came off I would not expect lowland snowfall to be widespread.

Edited December 20, 2014 by Thundery wintry showers

[Backtrack]

12Z looking worse already, quicker to introduce mild air from the SW thanks to the Azores High...

 

I take back my post.

Later frames now show WAA up to Greenland with the low sinking to our south east to re-introduce colder air from the north.

 

What get's me though, is that the same thing has stayed constantly around T+162 and beyond for about 3 days now, it just doesn't seem to be getting any closer.

 

Still not looking great though for Christmas & Boxing Day

Edited December 20, 2014 by Backtrack

[SE Blizzards]

And there was me about to say to my eyes the 12z runs look better compared to the 00z runs but hey i guess am wrong!!

 

The 12Z's are better, it's just some people rubbish'd them far too early imo

Edited December 20, 2014 by SE Blizzards

[swfc]

And there was me about to say to my eyes the 12z runs look better compared to the 00z runs but hey i guess am wrong!!

12z is much better at 168hrs tbh ,havnt viewed the gfsp tho so cant comment

[Daniel*]

Cause for concern if GFS T198 verified the track of the low has slightly changed but its still there... the chance of heavy soaking rain alternating with blizzard conditions also coastal flooding forecasters nightmare! Winter storm on the tin, moderate damage along East coast would be caused by them gusts.

Edited December 20, 2014 by Daniel*

[Ice Day]

GFS for 174

 

 

 

GFS (P) for the same time.............good lord that looks severe!!!

 

[bradymk]

Improvement from both the GFS & GFS (P), despite the big mess to the north on the GFS, it does in the end bring a potent northerly at the +180 mark for a time. Consistency from the parallel with another potent northerly, some quite severe weather possible with that low moving southwards 27th/28th.

 

Is it time to start looking for some WAA towards the north/north east maybe?

Edited December 20, 2014 by bradythemole

[snowice]

The gfs P is great and next Saturday 27thlooks good the run seems to be delayed in the UK I was confused by the comments of the run unless I need to go to specsavers its a good run?

Edited December 20, 2014 by snowice

[nick sussex]

Wow! I'm shocked to see the GFS's and UKMO cut off that low and refuse to back the ECM.

 

It looked like curtains this morning for the quicker northerly, if the ECM backs down this evening then really what an embarrassment for that model.

 

Of course it might still continue on its merry way but with both GFS's and the UKMO agreeing on that crucial detail to the sw between T120 and T144hrs its hard to imagine the ECM has called this correctly.

 

Anyway its been a weird few days so perhaps nothing is really that surprising!

[SnowLover2010]

The gfs P is great and next Saturday 27thlooks good the run seems to be delayed in the UK I was confused by the comments of the run unless I need to go to specsavers its a good run?

In my opinion its good run, that Storm certainly needs keeping a close eye on, could bring some really Stormy conditions to our shores next weekend.

[Jason H]

12Z looking worse already, quicker to introduce mild air from the SW thanks to the Azores High...

Oh dear. Never peak too early. Another wild and stormy run. The kitchen sink in that run, not mild either!

[Lincstim]

GFS for 174

 

 

 

GFS (P) for the same time.............good lord that looks severe!!!

 

Right, let me get this straight!

After reading all the DOOM & GLOOM are we back on track or is it still up in the air?

[snowice]

Wow! I'm shocked to see the GFS's and UKMO cut off that low and refuse to back the ECM.

 

It looked like curtains this morning for the quicker northerly, if the ECM backs down this evening then really what an embarrassment for that model.

 

Of course it might still continue on its merry way but with both GFS's and the UKMO agreeing on that crucial detail to the sw between T120 and T144hrs its hard to imagine the ECM has called this correctly.

 

Anyway its been a weird few days so perhaps nothing is really that surprising!

only an hour to go for total cardiac arrest so lol?

[Backtrack]

Oh dear. Never peak too early. Another wild and stormy run. The kitchen sink in that run, not mild either!

 

I was far too quick to judge man, not a half bad 12Z afterall. That storm looks fun, blizzards for all!

[Banbury]

12z bringing in milder weather. Think the gfs is starting to backtrack towards the ECM solution now. So for all the stick ECM has had over last few days. It once again shows why it's the top model in the verification stats.

How many more times, you need to stop taking each Operational as gospel, look at the ENS

[Banbury]

At 144 GFS and UKMO look fairly similar.

 

I wish people would stop writing off a run at +24

[shaky]

Well quite an improvement this evening and i think ukmo would follow in the gfss footsteps! ! Please ecm be good for once and show what we wana see!!

[bradymk]

A common theme recently from the models has certainly been to overestimate height rises to our NW. As it moves closer to +0, the low heights just seem to not want to move as much as we would like. This aside, looks like turning colder for christmas and after. Milder for boxing day but turning colder again after that. Cool, cold or very cold though? 

Edited December 20, 2014 by bradythemole

[nick sussex]

only an hour to go for total cardiac arrest so lol?

One would think if there was going to be a climbdown by the other major models to the ECM it would have happened this evening, I don't think this thread could cope with even more uncertainty if the ECM refuses to back down!

[SE Blizzards]

THE MIGHTY NAVGEM!!!

 

[Jason M]

Got to laugh really.... The 'northerly' looks like a cold, very windy damp squib. The 850s are only adequate for a few hours really and so yes, we might see some wet snow, a notable cold spell is looking less likely.

 

Still, not to worry, lets have an easterly instead.....http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=276&mode=0&runpara=1

 

Or maybe not......http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=324&mode=0&runpara=1

 

I'm afraid that until we can sustain some genuine northern heights the wait goes on! Too much energy is going into the northern arm of the jet.

Edited December 20, 2014 by Jason M

[igloo]

i think  GEM  is about to explode with a chart like this

 

[Cloud 10]

Didn't someone say earlier that the NAVGEM was performing well at the moment? :smiliz19:

 

 

lol,beaten to it.

Edited December 20, 2014 by Cloud 10

[blizzard81]

One would think if there was going to be a climbdown by the other major models to the ECM it would have happened this evening, I don't think this thread could cope with even more uncertainty if the ECM refuses to back down!

Typical, GEM goes similar to ECM solution.

[Weather-history]

GFS for 174

 

 

 

GFS (P) for the same time.............good lord that looks severe!!!

 

A rare post from but that GFS 12z para run looks a bit of a nonsense to me. In a space of 60 hours, it goes from nothing to nothing with a mother of all storms interval.