Model Output Discussion - 14th Jan 12z Onwards

[Neilsouth]

#

 

Yes we expected this-

 

 

& the UKMO 144 sees a large scale snow event with a southerly draw out of the continent with minimal warmer air entrapment-  UKMO must be concerned at that-

 

Thickness over London on the 995 contour is about about 529 DAM reducing to 525 ish towards the midlands & wales.

 

S

 

I really don't see it personally, expect rain south of the M4

[bluearmy]

Ukmo at day 6 looks like a reload slider around the Atlantic ridge. Could even end up South west of the initial slider

I really don't see it personally, expect rain south of the M4

Maybe true but not from the chart Steve refers to.

[Dr. Astro]

the ship is sinking, much preferred the 06z version.

 

I don't see what you mean with the ship is sinking? What is sinking? It's a UK Cold High, and after the snow would bring very cold temperatures to the UK, and the lying snow from earlier in the week would probably remain.

 

It's a very snowy outlook, followed by a very cold outlook for at least a week.

 

Rather some can't read the charts properly (Not a dig at you Karlos), or are expecting another 2010 event X10.

[karlos1983]

This is the one time we really do want the UKMO to prove it's the boss at this time frame in my opinion. I'm looking forward to the ECM.... i think.

[The Beast From The East]

How much do I hate these 4 little words when you keep hearing probably rain....

" South of the M4"

But to be fair I'm no expert but the charts look like we will all get snow at some point during the next few days. â„â„â„â„â„â„â„

[Dr. Astro]

I really don't see it personally, expect rain south of the M4

 

Expectations are different from what the Charts currently show.

 

The one Steve posted = Snow, unless you can show us why on that chart he posted it would be rain south of the M4 please ?

[SMU]

I really don't see it personally, expect rain south of the M4

 

Well, seeing you cant see the 850 thickness then it cannot be proved, however the M4 line is to far North, its really only coastal counties of the south & SW-

Id imagine for London ~ 1290 Dam - where as along the south coast maybe 1295-1300- midlands 1285.

 

remember there will be a deep layer of surface cold ahead of the front, with minimal mixing, more importantly a Southerly draw as opposed to SW draw. Which is really important-

 

S

Edited January 15, 2015 by Steve Murr

[seabreeze86]

I think the small low that forms just to the east of Greenland then moves west prevents the high forming in the way we would like for longevity of the easterly.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011512/gfsnh-0-150.png?12

 

The UKMO does not have this feature so would give a better easterly i would think.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015011512/UN144-21.GIF?15-17

 

Also as Nick has said the UKMO splits the vortex , it will be interesting to see what the ECM does.

 

In the short term plenty to get excited about in terms of snowfall just about anywhere could see a good covering.

Edited January 15, 2015 by seabreeze86

[karlos1983]

I don't see what you mean with the ship is sinking? What is sinking? It's a UK Cold High, and after the snow would bring very cold temperatures to the UK, and the lying snow from earlier in the week would probably remain.

 

It's a very snowy outlook, followed by a very cold outlook for at least a week.

 

Rather some can't read the charts properly (Not a dig at you Karlos), or are expecting another 2010 event X10.

 

Hi Dr.

 

I'm probably just being picky to be honest. It is a great outlook in comparison to winter so far and last winter. I'm just stating that I prefer the UKMO and the GFS 06z for longevity of the Easterly.

 

There is no doubt that the high is sinking on the GFS 12z though, the PV looks quite angry too

 

EDIT: Ok so it doesn't sink as such and we end up with a UK High, off to model school I go...

Edited January 15, 2015 by karlos1983

[snowblues]

All seems like a risky outcome,the slider situation would it be better for the high in the Atlantic to push further into the uk a little to force the low South East into Europe but then maybe not such long term trend for retaining cold?

[Downpour]

I really don't see it personally, expect rain south of the M4

He was referring to that chart specifically which actually shows snowfall in many areas south of that fabled snow/rain barrier. Whether it verifies or not is an entirely different question. 

[bluearmy]

Day 5 statscor_day5_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

So the para isn't verifying ahead of the old Gfs !

Still in third despite the increased resolution.

[Snowmadsam]

So the para isn't verifying ahead of the old Gfs !

Still in third despite the increased resolution.

 

There is no parallel version of my GFS now, the Parallel is the operational, so opinions and bias has to be reset  

 

Looking interesting tonight, that rain/snow barrier is still too far way to look at.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

The games begin on Saturday

 

 

Snow for the north and south if the GFS is correct.

What do the white lines on this chart mean please?

[frosty ground]

What do the white lines on this chart mean please?

Indicates Snow (Wintry Weather)

[karlos1983]

What do the white lines on this chart mean please?

 

Snow

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Indicates Snow (Wintry Weather)

Thanking you Ok so not snow here after all. I did think at 10 - 1pm it would be to warm here!

[Team Jo]

Afternoon folks, and another tantalising set of charts rolling out at the moment...

 

Just to refresh you all, there is a dedicated thread  for your concerns, reverse psychology, gut feeling, not seeing, general disappointment which is here.. 

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81281-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-autumnwinter-201415/

 

Please bear in mind that there are nearl 1000 people online this afternoon, so if you're going to proclaim that the cold spell is over/Bexleyheath will be entrenched in snow, can you please illustrate your rationale so we can encourage balanced discussion? 

 

As mentioned earlier, we also have a cold discussion thread for general musings here  - https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82292-upcoming-cold-spell-discussion/

 

and the regionals here.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/forum/142-regional-discussions/

 

Thanks all!

[swfc]

What do the white lines on this chart mean please?

The white areas are the dry areas.The coloured areas indicate snow-slleet ete

[IDO]

The GFS op as with the 06z ensembles with this scenario breakdown after D10 and back to a zonal flow of alternating PM and TM:

 

 

And into FI the PV up to its old tricks: 

 

Will no doubt change on the 18z. That is one of several options that have been showing up. Hopefully when the music stops it won't be the one left seated.

[bradymk]

GEM looks possibly good for SE Sunday night, been consistent with that low crossing the channel. Thoughts? Possible snow southern then south east counties, not sure

The slider to the west looking good too

PS. Just been sent some photos from family back home in haverfordwest pembrokeshire, (W Wales) where they had a remarkable hailstorm Tuesday night

Look at the size of these

Edited January 15, 2015 by bradythemole

[phil nw.]

A few posts have been removed- one off topic and the replies to it.

 

Please think before you post in here and make sure you are on topic- especially so now we are very busy.

 

Any problems with a post please report it and leave it for the team to deal with as replying just adds to off topic content

 

Thanks everyone.

[bluearmy]

The GFS op as with the 06z ensembles with this scenario breakdown after D10 and back to a zonal flow of alternating PM and TM:

 

gfs-0-276 (1).png

 

And into FI the PV up to its old tricks: gfsnh-0-348 (1).png

 

Will no doubt change on the 18z. That is one of several options that have been showing up. Hopefully when the music stops it won't be the one left seated.

IDO - if the ens mean was accurate week 2, we would have no cold spell upcoming. If you are going to post day 10+ means charts, perhaps add the spread and anomoly to put it in perspective ?

[IDO]

IDO - if the ens mean was accurate week 2, we would have no cold spell upcoming. If you are going to post day 10+ means charts, perhaps add the spread and anomoly to put it in perspective ?

 

 

Sorry BA was referring to the 06z ensemble cluster that had the fast track easterly rather than the op's slower progression. GEM looks like it is also seeing the faster evolution:

 

T138:

Edited January 15, 2015 by i'm dreaming of...

[West is Best]

Good afternoon all. Just looked at the 12z GFS and wow there's some snow potential there. Crikey. 

 

As ever, and in homage to an old old poster on here Stratos Ferric: the devil will be in the detail, but how's this for a pretty picture?

 

 

 

Further ahead, I do confess to finding it bemusing, as indeed before Christmas (when I lost my rag about this), that there are some who spend their time in the far realms of FI having already wished away the next week of cold and who have, apparently, decided the game is up because a chart on a run at T240, or whatever, says so. Reliable timeframe always used to be considered out to T168. Well the chart at T168 looks none too shabby to me:

 

Edited January 15, 2015 by West is Best